The September Arcus Sea Ice Forecast, August Report, is out, and quite naturally, the doom and gloom projections of a death spiral have returned to the closet, at least until next June.
The mean of the 16 projections provided by scientists is 4.9 +/- 0.51 million square kilometers, which is likely to be lower than what the final result will end up being. The July Report outlook was 4.8 +/- 0.62 million square kilometers. Even that knucklehead Wilson sobered up and realised that his July projection of 1.o million square kilometres was perhaps just a tad too low.
The June report outlook is shown below for comparison.
Why not make a projection for next year? NOAA is forecasting a brutally cold Arctic winter, meaning colder than normal, La Nina is strengthening, and the major ocean cycles have switched. These all point to more ice for next year. I’ll project 5.75 million square kilometers for September 2011. That’s what my top secret super model says. (PS: Don’t tell my wife!).