Remember the rare and exciting snowfall projection? That’s what the leading experts using their tuned models and super-computers told us. And whenever the rest of us had the audacity to doubt these longterm forecasts, we were scolded, got one across the knuckles, and branded as deniers.
The gods are surely laughing.
Germany’s central location in Europe acts as a rough barometer for measuring general weather harshness in Europe as a whole, and so we can say that Europe in general is not getting its promised warmth. Meteorologist Karsten Brandt at Germany’s donnerwetter.de has a report out (in German) titled: Snow Without End – 2010 Is On Track To Set A Record. Here’s what Dr Brandt says:
The year 2010 is about to go down in weather history. The number of snow days is at a record level, between 70 and 110 days so far. By the end of the year Bonn for example could see 80 snow days, in Berlin it will be well over 100, and it will be between 90 and 120 snow days in other cities. As a result, it will exceed the number snow days set in the record year of 1963. In many parts of Germany, so many days of snow have not been counted in the last 100 years.
Note that snow days here means the number of days that have snow on the ground.
Gee, I wonder if the German media are all scrambling to report this? Maybe Der Spiegel will resurrect its old 1974 Ice Age piece I wrote about yesterday. This time, they could blame it on global warming. But don’t get your hopes up – the odds of the media reporting on this are, I’d say, 1 in 10,000.
200% to 300% more frost and snow days.
In addition, Dr Brandt says here that governments ought to be preparing for harder winters and not for warmth.
In the next years we will have to anticipate many more hard winters. Compared to the 1990s and 2000s, the number of frost and snow days is 200% to 300% higher. The reason for this careful estimation is the weakness of the Gulf Stream and the longer-term changeover of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation.
…the trend is definite: colder rather than warmer.”
This of course is all a very difficult act for the government to handle. The people are supposed to believe in warming, yet be asked to prepare for bitter cold and snow.
Perhaps jumping the gun but, one of the examples of ‘warming’, everybody in Central Europe always espouses, especially in Germany and Switzerland/Austria.
“The retreat of the Alpine glaciers!”
I am wondering, if 4 years of cold winters are beginning to have an effect?
Is the ice in the Alps, inching forward?
Who would admit it?
I am following Swiss glaciers:
http://i51.tinypic.com/24yptu0.jpg
There is clear relation with AMO, equal to summer temperatures. Sooner or later, they will start growing.
http://tinyurl.com/2b76hfd
In Poland there is no money for snow removal in the budget and the winter hasn’t even begun 😉
Neues Deutschland – the remnant of the East German SED party newspaper – reports:
“Rekordwinter in Deutschland?
Wetterexperte Dominik Jung über Ursachen für eiskalte Temperaturen”
http://www.neues-deutschland.de/artikel/186764.rekordwinter-in-deutschland.html
They interview Dominik Jung from wetter.de; while saying that there is a high chance for a record winter, in the last paragraph he is falling all over himself to add that worldwide extremes are higher than ever and that this is connected to our high CO2 emissions. (Funny. CO2 creates thermodynamical extremes? Wondergas, definitely.)
“Und dies steht in direktem Zusammenhang mit unserem zunehmenden CO2-Ausstoß.”
What a dummy. I’m going to write a little friendly piece about this interview – tomorrow.
Appendix
I think you should read this:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/18/how-germanys-weather-team-views-the-hottest-year-ever/
https://notrickszone.com/2010/12/14/little-ice-age-and-expanding-arctic-ice-coming-climate-models-will-have-to-be-thrown-in-the-dustbin/ Dated Dec 14.
I messed up big time late last night.
I thought Dr Peiser had pinched the story from me, and so I got all hot-headed about it late last night. Turns out the source of my post was a link I got from Peiser. Now I feel like a complete idiot for having railed against him.
“Eile mit Weile” = Haste makes waste 😉
“The reason for this careful estimation is the weakness of the Gulf Stream”
The annoying thing is “the weakness of the Gulf Stream” will be put down to AGW.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8589512.stm
Gulf Stream ‘is not slowing down’
“Between 2002 and 2009, the team says, there was no trend discernible – just a lot of variability on short timescales.”
I was wondering about that too. I can’t change his quotes.
Oh, didn’t you here. That oil dispersant made the Gulf Stream stop right in its tracks. We can all sue BP now. 😉
The next step from the warmists will be to claim that this is natural variation caused by… well let’s sweep over that. They’ll pretend that they knew all along that we were in for a few years cooling… except the majority didn’t predict it in advance.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8299079.stm
The scientists’ main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature.
And the results were clear. “Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can’t have been caused by solar activity,” said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
[snip]
To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years.
[snip]
So what can we expect in the next few years?
Both sides have very different forecasts. The Met Office says that warming is set to resume quickly and strongly.
It predicts that from 2010 to 2015 at least half the years will be hotter than the current hottest year on record (1998).
cont.
That makes Latif 2, Met Office 0. (for the winter forecasts)
Look at the latest post at WUWT –
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/18/how-germanys-weather-team-views-the-hottest-year-ever/
We’ll have to discard some climate forecasts, says meteomedia.
Unfortunately I screwed up last night thinking Dr Peiser had pinched my post from 14 December, and blew my top and shot off some dumb comments. Turns out he didn’t. I’m reminded what it’s like to feel like an ass.
I saw the ref to Benny in your original article and was confused but didn’t speak up because i thought you had some behind the scenes agreement with Benny or something… Good that you’re not angry anymore…
Just so that readers know, those are self-snips up there and not from me. Not that some readers think I’m censoring.
Germany, temp. anomalies since 2000:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/icrutem3_5-15E_47.5-55N_n_1990:2011_2000:2011a.png
It is very similar to Slovakia, here 2000 being the hottest and 2007 just behind. Looks like it is going downhill pretty fast.
————————
Reply: Yeah, Real fast! -PG
Another reason used for cooling is pollution blocking the suns light.
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=19&month=12&year=2010
“ALL-CLEAR IN THE STRATOSPHERE”
“Earth’s stratosphere is as clear as it’s been in more than 50 years. University of Colorado climate scientist Richard Keen knows this because he’s been watching lunar eclipses.”
Thanks – that looks very very interesting.
It’s the shrinking polar ice wot done it! (finds out the PIK, with their highly sophisticated ECHAM5 computer modell)
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/global-warming-could-cool-down-temperatures-in-winter
“These anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and northern Asia,” says Vladimir Petoukhov, lead author of the study and climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “Recent severe winters like last year’s or the one of 2005-06 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it.”
11/16/2010
Proves the sheer and utter uselessness of climate science and the precautionary principle, BTW. What do we get for all the research money? Paid scribes screaming bloody murder all the time, prepare for worse to come – for what? For floods, drought, sea level rising, maybe locally falling, heat waves, blizzards? Yes, FOR ALL OF THAT! Thank you climate science that was a big help…
You really gotta love the timing of that report – right after every meteorologist had predicted harsh winters ahead.
Rahmstorf is de facto secretly using ocean currents and oscillations to make the forecasts behind the scenes, and then cooks up an explanation that blames it all on CO2.
I don’t think that the PIK is capable of getting anything right, especially a long range forecast. My guess would be that they have several people preparing papers for different future scenarios at the same time – they have enough models and parameters to predict every possible future.
Then they release the paper they see as most fitting, and bin the rest. The generation of such papers can easily be automated – batch jobs running alternative models; a MS Word template and some Visual Basic macro that produces a variant of the paper.
But probably they don’t even automate it – they have 200 people so it’s just a factory for such papers.
Here in England, the heavy snow has brought chaos on the roads. For the second year running, the Met. Office predicted a very mild Winter so the local councils didn’t buy enough salt and grit.
Pointman
Same here in Germany.
But we have winter tyres.
Juraj V
Thank you for the link, much appreciated.
From Joe Bastardi: (you know, just for the record)
SUNDAY PM
COLD RUN UP TO CHRISTMAS, THEN THE THAW STARTS.
If luck ( or misfortune, depending about how you feel about the cold) holds then it will turn out that I was to quick on the thaw THAT IS COMING but not till we can conserve a white Christmas for much of the UK.
But I am still bullish on the warmup that is on the way. Just like I want to give you heads up on the cold, you have to no about the warmer.
This is part of a pattern realignment which will set the northwest part of europe up in a much more variable pattern of fight back and forth between continental cold and maritime intrusions, while after their warm up, the main part of the continent settles into the larger scale cold. The in the end. the core of the coldest of this reminder of winters past and that cycles repeat and no one pattern will last, will find the center southeast of the UK.
I got an email on the article below, so to be clear, here is the link to read on why it wasnt going to snow anymore
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the- past-724017.html
Thanks for reading, ciao for now ****
Chickens……Home….Roost
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/12/chickens-home-roost.html
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Looks like Swedes will march this winter to Denmark again.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-shaping-up/
It is quite probably that we’ll be seeing a new Dalton Minimum. A global cooling? I’ll bet the man is responsible for it! 😆
[…] December 18: And what would December 2010 be without all the news of the cold and snow that was supposed to be rare in Europe. Read here and here. […]