I’m sure there were winters over the last millenium that won’t be matched, of course. No one seriously expects the Thames to freeze over, like it did during the little ice age of the 17th century. But if the computer forecasts pan out, it could very well be one of the worst winters for northwestern Europe of the millenium – maybe in that elite class of the top 50.
Say Happy New Year! (Graphic: http://www.wetter24.de/de/home/wetter/profikarten)
Sweden in Britain are already well on their way to recording a “December of the century”. Joe Bastardi, like Piers Corbyn, pretty much hit it right on the nail – almost. Joe actually forecast the cold to be more centered in southern Europe, and not Northern Europe. But he wasn’t that far off.
Outlook for January 6, 2011
How did the Met Office do with their forecast? Forget them, except for the IPCC and others who like to be fooled all the time, they’re not relevant anymore.
The harsh winter only is likely going to get worse
The above graphic shows what the temperatures are going to be like when we’re toasting in the New Year. To the left it shows temperatures 5 days later. No let up! That’s freaking cold! You can view these graphics here at: meteogroup profikarten.
(The DWD says, however, that the forecasts at the moment have a lot of uncertainty, which probably means they are not sure how the storms are going to track.)
Is Piers Corbyn expecting this to continue? For how long? I’ve been hearing until the end of March from various sources. Say it aint true!
If this stuff goes on into March, then the Thames River has a chance of freezing over. If not, then many ports waterways and canals on the mainland will still be in serious trouble. Things can change of course. There are going to be days where things will thaw a bit, hopefully, later on. Then governments really ought to use these occasions to ensure that supplies get rammed through to the max.
And when you have cold with the pattern shown above, you tend to get lots of snow.
For years we were told that the above charts would be coloured green or even yellow. All the so-called climatologists discounted the NAO and PDO and solar cycles, etc. They didn’t want to hear it though. They went on preparing for warmth. Now it may end up costing millions of people dearly. Warming is indeed a whole nicer.
UPDATE: http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
I’d be more cautious about predictions longer than about 5 days. Let’s wait and see. Re freezing of the Thames: yes, it’s been a long time since the tidal section in London froze, but upstream at Windsor there was plenty of ice in February 1963, and in the same winter it was briefly possible to drive a car on the Thames at Oxford.
You’re right. That’s why I added: “(The DWD says, however, that the forecasts at the moment have a lot of uncertainty, which probably means they are not sure how the storms are going to track.)”
Being on the right or left side of a front makes all the difference.
28 January 1940; In the close vicinity of London the river Thames has frozen for the first time since 1814. (Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 29 January 1940). http://www.climate-ocean.com/02_11-Dateien/02_11.html This report may be written in haste.
The early start and severity of this winter is indeed very unusual, e.g. sea ice along German’s coasts was one month earlier as last year. The interesting question is now, whether it will be a second cold winter in succession, as it was the case with the first three WWII, whereby the most interesting aspect of the second war winter 1940/41 is explained here http://www.what-is-climate.com/ and in DE here: http://www.ozeanklima.de/
The PIK and the DWD seem to be in heavy hand-waving mode now – the sheeples have to be kept in line…
“2010 is an outlier to the cold side”
http://www.ftd.de/wissen/natur/:eis-und-schnee-2010-ist-ausreisser-nach-unten/50207896.html
And introducing: A new popstar on the German gravy train, the Potsdam Institute for Advanced Substainability Studies IASS.
Makes you wonder what the winter 2009/2010 was…
Thanks Dirk,
I skimmed it over. Of course in this case there’s this or that explanation. But when there are warm records, it’s always “global warming!”.
Australias White Summer Monbiots Red Fury
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/australias-white-summer-monbiots-red-fury/
If temperatures go down far enough, all waters freeze.
However it is a mistake to compare a possible freezing of the river Thames today with a freezing during the Little Ice Age.
The Thames during the Little Ice Age was a different river, less deep with only a drop of the influx of waste waters as it receives today.
If the Thames is going to freeze over this winter, it’s a more unique event that it was during the Little Ice Age.
Brits consider a Plan B to be more prepared for harsh winters. Video, including interesting impressions from 1963 and 1978. The word climate is carefully avoided by the commentary and everybody else in this video.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12045756
(It’s climate only when it warms.)
Abwarten und Tee trinken. I think this winter won’t be extraordinary cold but it will be snowy.
“No one seriously expects the Thames to freeze over, like it did during the little ice age of the 17th century.”
Closer than you might think. The river Ouse froze over less than 2 weeks ago.
If we’d had a VEI 6 eruption in the last few years it might have frozen. As it is the stratosphere is very clean at the moment due to a lack of volcanic dust or sulfate particles.
Joe Bastardi is forecasting a warmup in Europe right around Christmas thru the New Year.
Do we expect some migration trend from the NH to the tropics soon? http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2010/12/global-warming-can-lead-to-deep-freeze.html
This winter already is extraordinary because of the scale of the cold events. Although Met Office is trying to sell this winter as “a local event”,
the reality shows us a different picture:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/12/21/met-office-chief-climate-scientist-has-difficulty-reading-maps/#more-12187
@ Casper:
This winter is already in the history books for the Little Ice Age cold records that have been broken so far.
I was born in Silesia and I know what a harsh winter with the temperatures below -25°C means 😉
Even Thailand is cold now:
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/International/19-Dec-2010/20-provinces-in-Thailand-facing-winter-disaster
It may be a very long Winter.
“There is mounting evidence pointing to a string of Arctic winters that are bound for Britain and Northern Europe before the effect of man-made global warming kicks in,” says Cooke. ”
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/218537/Dawn-of-a-new-ice-age
Pointman