When it’s the 2nd coldest year of this century, sea levels are dropping and you’re a warmist desperate for headlines, what do you do? You resort to using outlier and obscure data sources – like the warmist University of Bremen – and claim Arctic ice is “dramatically shrinking” and has reached “a record low” (since satellite measurement began 30 years ago).
Too bad all other datasets show the opposite is true. Using the other well-known sources, the NOAA IMS, NSIDC, JAXA, NORSEX, DMI, or AMSR-E, 2011 was not even close to 2007.
By most accounts, 2011 fell about 300,000 sq km short of 2007. That’s more than 8000 Manhattans. You can see all the up-to-date charts at Anthony Watts excellent sea ice page here.
Dr. Steve Goddard prepared an excellent comparison chart of 2007 and 2011. As you can see it’s not even close when viewed objectively.
How the U. of Bremen measures ice to me is truly mysterious. Are they into science or media manipulation? Serious and objective observers of course will be extra careful with future statements coming from Bremen.
Will 2011 take a turn downwards in the days ahead?
Right now temperatures north of 80°N latitude are below normal (see chart below) and falling rapidly, as they typically do this time of the year. Refreezing is now taking place at a vigorous rate. In fact, by most accounts, the 2011 melting season ended near a record early point (Sept 9 – IARC-JAXA). A warming world would show ice melts into late September, and not ending in early September.
Temperature above 80°N, http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php:
Source: Danish Meteorological Institute.
Arctic freezing and melting is but only one single indicator from many in discerning global temperature behaviour. Ice-free North Poles were recorded back in the 1950s. And over the last months Steve Goddard’s site has presented numerous accounts of “rapidly melting Arctic ice” – from the early 20th century! Clearly there is nothing unusual about today’s global climate and “ice-free Arctics”.
The relatively low ice extents today in the Arctic are all part of the ongoing global cyclic changes. They are nothing new. Indeed many scientists expect the Arctic to recover. And when it does, it could very well be that melting will shift to the Antarctic.
And if it doesn’t, then expect places like the University of Bremen to see to it that it does.