2011 Record Arctic Ice Melt? Not Even Close!

Sea ice turns up sharply. Source: ijis.iarc

When it’s the 2nd coldest year of this century, sea levels are dropping and you’re a warmist desperate for headlines, what do you do? You resort to using outlier and obscure data sources – like the warmist University of Bremen – and claim Arctic ice is “dramatically shrinking” and has reached “a record low” (since satellite measurement began 30 years ago).

Too bad all other datasets show the opposite is true. Using the other well-known sources, the NOAA IMS, NSIDC, JAXA, NORSEX, DMI, or AMSR-E, 2011 was not even close to 2007.

By most accounts, 2011 fell about 300,000 sq km short of 2007. That’s more than 8000 Manhattans. You can see all the up-to-date charts at Anthony Watts excellent sea ice page here.

Dr. Steve Goddard prepared an excellent comparison chart of 2007 and 2011. As you can see it’s not even close when viewed objectively.

Green shows ice added in 2011 compared to 2007.

Source: Dr. Steve Goddard’s Real Science blog.

How the U. of Bremen measures ice to me is truly mysterious. Are they into science or media manipulation? Serious and objective observers of course will be extra careful with future statements coming from Bremen.

Will 2011 take a turn downwards in the days ahead?

Right now temperatures north of 80°N latitude are below normal (see chart below) and falling rapidly, as they typically do this time of the year. Refreezing is now taking place at a vigorous rate. In fact, by most accounts, the 2011 melting season ended near a record early point (Sept 9 – IARC-JAXA). A warming world would show ice melts into late September, and not ending in early September.

Temperature above 80°N, http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php:

Source: Danish Meteorological Institute.

Arctic freezing and melting is but only one single indicator from many in discerning global temperature behaviour. Ice-free North Poles were recorded back in the 1950s. And over the last months Steve Goddard’s site has presented numerous accounts of “rapidly melting Arctic ice” – from the early 20th century! Clearly there is nothing unusual about today’s global climate and “ice-free Arctics”.

The relatively low ice extents today in the Arctic are all part of the ongoing global cyclic changes. They are nothing new. Indeed many scientists expect the Arctic to recover. And when it does, it could very well be that melting will shift to the Antarctic.

And if it doesn’t, then expect places like the University of Bremen to see to it that it does.

10 responses to “2011 Record Arctic Ice Melt? Not Even Close!”

  1. Peter S. Mizla

    why quote a person by the name of ‘Dr. Steve Goddard’ someone who is unknown in the science community- except for being a…[-snip – slander is not allowed here. Concerning sea ice – look at the chart!].

    1. DirkH

      Peter, it would be unfair to Al Gore, Monbiot, Revkin, Joe Romm or Rajendra K. Pachauri to ignore the voice of “people unknown in the science community”, don’t you think so?

      1. DirkH

        Oh, and Tamino. Didn’t publish any papers, this Tamino guy. Nuttin.

  2. DirkH

    BBC says Bremen uses a satellite with higher resolution and detects small spots of water where NSIDC can’t. That’s how the different numbers come about. Bremen’s record only goes back to 2003, though.


    1. mwhite

      You may be interseted in this from the UK met.


      “Next month the Met Office will publish an in-depth article on modelling of Arctic sea ice extent.”

      Another chance to predict an ice free summer perhaps

  3. Green Sand

    The present day ice minimum day does funny things to people, sort of like the effect a full moon has on a werewolf, only about 12 times more dramatic!

    Good comment over at WUWT that puts it into perspective:-

    Caleb says on September 16, 2011 at 4:39 am

    “Yawn. Wake me up when the Viking graveyards in Greenland aren’t permafrost. Until graves can be hand-dug again, anyone who uses the word “unprecedented” is

    A.) A fool
    B.) Deluded
    C.) A con-artist
    D.) All of the above “

  4. Hengist McStone

    Where does the notion that Steve Goddard is a doctor come from? On his blog he’s just plain Mr Goddard. What’s his doctorate in?

  5. Hengist McStone

    Ive asked . He says he has a Bachelor of Science in Geology and a Masters In Electrical Engineering. He isn’t a Doctor .

  6. Lazarus

    “Steve Jobs and Bill Gates aren’t doctors either.”


    Neither than I, no even from an unaccredited internet based University.

    Why feel you need to add a bit of argument from authority to Goddard’s claims?

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