Another “abnormal” baby is born.
Heike M. was born this morning at St. Peters hospital and weighed in at 3850 grams and was 57 cm long. Doctors said that she was heavier and longer than normal. The normal weight for a baby girl in Germany is 3250 grams and 51 cm long. Though bigger than normal babies can occur, their increasing frequency is a sign that size at birth is going up, experts say. If the trends continue, babies will outweigh their mothers by the year 3700.
Also Heike’s hair was more reddish than normal, and not the blond we used to see more often, say 100 years ago. Moreover, Heike’s skin colour was too pale. Though German babies tend to be on the pale side, it is abnormal for a baby to be as pale as Heike. The last baby that was that pale was 2 and half years ago. Doctors report that St. Peters hospital has not seen a normal baby in about 15 years.
Last week Sven was born. He weighed in at 2850 grams and was 49 cm long. Doctors said that although smaller babies are not unusual, and will also occur in the future, Sven’s smaller size, they say, is attributable to “natural variability”. Mothers, they say, will however have to fear oversized abnormal babies in the future.
Maybe some readers by now are wondering what all this is supposed to mean. I’m merely using this baby example to demonstrate the absurdity of taking the statistic of a single random event and attaching too much significance to its deviation from the mean. This unfortunately has become standard practice in weather analysis and climate.
At the end of each month in weather, the statistics get tallied up and compared to a 30-year mean that is arbitrarily chosen. Nowadays if there is a single weather deviation from the mean, we are told that something is wrong and that something significant is happening. But as the above baby example shows, this is a ridiculous practice and we need to get away from it.
The German Weather Service (DWD) just released its statistics for March, 2012 (for Germany) and they tell us that the month was “too warm, too sunny, and too dry”, i.e. that once again the month was not normal. It appears that the German Weather Service, and especially the media, have forgotten that weather is never normal.
Indeed things are getting so bad that the media and desperate warmists are now fretting over half months, or even claiming that single weather events are climatically significant. It seems that deviations are no longer supposed to occur. More often than not we now hear in Germany claims like: “The first half of this month was 4°C warmer than normal”, or “the last 10 days of this month were the wettest in 33 years”, or “the winds in Hamburg in yesterday’s storm were the strongest in 6 years.” The public is supposed to believe that something is wrong with every deviation that occurs in a chaotic system.
We have to return back to reality and remember that with weather, anomaly is normal, and normal is anomaly. Weather anomalies are not climate trends. Anyone claiming otherwise is either a charlatan or a plain fool.
Note: The above baby characteristic statistics are arbitrary and selected only for the purpose of demonstrating a point. I don’t know what an average baby is.