Now that the preliminary draft of the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR 5) is available online, thanks to Alec Rawls, readers have had the chance to analyze it in detail.
Michael Krüger at Readers Edition here takes a look at some of the charts and graphics for temperature and sea level rise development, and compares the IPCC charts to those from alarmist Stefan Rahmstorf.
As Krüger shows, scientists have very different perspectives and everything but consensus exists:
Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the most well-known and influential climate scientists in Germany, and a lead author for the last IPCC report, announced at his KlimaLounge blog in 2008 that the temperature development at the time was at the upper limit of those of the IPCC scenarios:
Chart from Stefan Rahmstorf: Global annual mean temperatures using datasets from NASA (red) and the Hadley Center (blue) through 2007. The heavy line is the 11-year smoothing. The gray area with the dashed lines beginning in 1990 depicts the range of the IPCC scenarios. Here the temperature development is at the upper range of the IPCC scenarios.
But much to our astonishment, the recent draft of the IPCC AR 5 contains a completely different graphic. In this chart the temperature development is not in the upper range of the scenarios, rather it is barely at the very lower range of the IPCC scenarios:
Temperature development depicted in the draft of the coming IPCC AR5. The range of the scenarios for the four previous IPCC reports are shown along with the observed temperature development, which is depicted by black dots (with error bars). It is clear to see that the current temperature development lies in the lower range of the IPCC scenarios and that the temperature increase has not accelerated over the last years.
The same is true with sea level rise. Stefan Rahmstorf announced at his KlimaLounge blog in 2011 that sea level rise had accelerated and that it was in the far upper range of the IPCC scenarios:
But now take a look at the observed data and scenarios shown in the draft of the upcoming IPCC AR 5. It shows the opposite is true:
Sea level development depicted in the draft of the upcoming IPCC AR 5: The overall range of the four previous IPCC reports is shown along with the actual observed sea level plot (shown by the black dots with error bars). Clearly the current sea level rise has not accelerated and is in the lower range of the IPCC scenarios.
Summary: These examples show that data can be bent one way or the other. Some climate scientists, such as Mr. Rahmstorf, intentionally use such methods in order to suggest to the readers that we are actually in the middle of a crisis. And the climate protection allegiance is ready and willing to believe it. I believe the charts in the draft of the IPCC AR 5, which did not succumb to alarmism.
By the way, within climate protection circles, the new graphics of the IPCC are already being discredited as the works of skeptics. It’ll be interesting to see what changes will be made in the final draft of the IPCC report.”
I expect to see both graphics disappear entirely.