Surprise! Payback From Windparks Far Less Than Promised…Wind Models Exaggerated Projected Wind Indices!

In relatively windy Germany many people think wind turbines are a reliable investment. After all, especially near the North and Baltic seas, the wind blows almost all the time, and surely wind energy is competitive, even when generated onshore.

But that’s proving to be a total myth, so reports Germany’s leftist-greenie daily, TAZ.

According to the TAZ, wind energy investors were misled by exaggerated projections from the wind industry. Many wind parks in Germany are now struggling to break even. The TAZ writes:

Many years wind energy has been considerably exaggerated. Hardly a wind park has produced the earnings that had been promised to private investors. […]. This the result that accountant Werner Daldorf of Kassel has come with after evaluating more than 1150 year-end financial statements from the year 2000 to 2011 coming from 175 wind parks. All the wind parks that were examined were installed before 2006.”

The TAZ adds that the wind parks reached only 86% of their projected turnover. The TAZ quotes Daldorf:

 About half of all onshore wind parks are running so poorly that the investors can be happy to get back their limited partnership capital in 20 years.“

That’s a long time. Sounds like it’s much safer to put your money in CDs (certificates of deposits) at your local savings bank. The TAZ continues:

37 percent of the year-end financial statements even showed a negative cash-flow – the repayment of the loan was higher than what the wind park brought in.”

I know the problem with my home solar system. Even with the high rates the power company is forced to pay me, I’m just barely breaking even. As I wrote earlier here, I’ll be happy to see my money back in 12+ years. And after that I’ll probably make enough money to pay for the disposal costs at the end of the system’s lifetime (20 years).

Meteorological wind models were inflated

The TAZ writes that the disappointing results are mostly due to the “over-estimation of wind income potential“. Wind models exaggerated wind projections. The TAZ adds:

In the earlier times a wind index – as would be evident later– was anticipated that was noticeably higher than the actually observed meteorological conditions.”

Sound familiar? In fact the entire green industry was spurred on by an anticipated temperature index – as would be shown later– that was noticeably higher than the actually observed meteorological conditions.

Has the wind-power promotion industry corrected their models? The TAZ has the answer:

The so-called BDB, or also the Keiler-Häuser Index, on which the wind experts rely on, were corrected downwards multiple times, the last time in December 2011. ‘In the view of the BWE German Wind Energy Association expert, it is now correct,’ says association spokesman Matthias Hochstätter.”

Gee, I’m sure all the people who invested years ago all feel a whole lot better about that now.

Note that all this disappointment is happening in Germany, a country that gets a rather healthy dose of wind. So when you look at wind parks being installed onshore in other dubious places, like my home state of Vermont, or Ontario, Canada, or wherever, many such places rarely see strong winds – often seeing days or even weeks of doldrums – and thus we can expect they will have even far greater trouble getting a return on their investments.

My prediction? In 20 years we should expect to see a landscape blighted by rusty, old, broken-down wind towers. All monuments commemorating a period environmental madness that had emanated from Al Gore’s brain and swept across the world like a global pandemic.


15 responses to “Surprise! Payback From Windparks Far Less Than Promised…Wind Models Exaggerated Projected Wind Indices!”

  1. Stephen Richards

    And that the poor will have given every centime of their earnings. The landowners will be laughing all the way to their banks.

    1. DirkH

      Land is mostly owned by old aristocrat families in Germany, at least in the plains of the North which belonged to Prussia. German aristocrats are a discreet bunch. They make money hand over fist with the Green madness and are surely financing some of the propaganda.

      1. Josh

        I see. So they are the people Claudia Kemfert is referring to when she says the Energiwende will pay off?

        1. DirkH

          Of course.

  2. DirkH

    “Note that all this disappointment is happening in Germany, a country that gets a rather healthy dose of wind.”

    Only the flat north that got flattened by glaciers. Starting with the chain of Mittelgebirge southwards you can only put wind turbines on hilltops.

  3. John F. Hultquist

    We learn there are 175 wind parks 8 or more years old. The early ones ought to experience reliability issues about now. With cash flow not near the predicted level the future should bring more down time and or complete failure of individual turbines. Will they be fixed? Have companies gone bye-bye that were involved? Builders (in the USA) often sell to others. I can see litigation cost going up as electron flow goes down. That can’t be good news for the wind power industry and its supporters.

    1. DirkH

      In Germany the license for a windmill lasts for 20 years after which it must be dismantled. License can be repeatedly extended, usually when “repowering” (replacing Nacelle with a newer better one). In the end someone will be liable for the dismantling. Whether the operators have to have insurance that pays for the dismantling in case of premature operator bankruptcy I don’t know; but wouldn’t be surprised. By now there are no abandoned windmills I know of.

      1. Bernd Felsche

        Last time I was there there are a number of abandoned (in practice if not officially) in the (former) principality of Lippe, along a scarp-/ridge-line that is part of the Egge “mountains” of the region; dating back to the 1990’s. They weren’t anywhere near as big as the current fashion; probably with a peak capacity of less than 50kW. The farmers who “owned” them simply turned them off when the maintenance costs exceeded the money from “production”.

        Further windparks were built in the area at a later stage and the number of larger subsidy harvesters is still increasing.

  4. John Silver

    “As I wrote earlier here, I’ll be happy to see my money back in 12+ years. And after that I’ll probably make enough money to pay for the disposal costs at the end of the system’s lifetime (20 years).”

    Sorry, I think you are way too optimistic. Prepare for a loss.
    Where does the “system’s lifetime (20 years)” come from?

  5. Kurt in Switzerland

    The Beeb has a related article today:

    Maybe they should call it the “Energieschwende” instead.

    Kurt in Switzerland

  6. DirkH
  7. DirkH

    You thought the EU wouldn’t control what you are allowed to eat? Well,think again. A giant Green slush fund is about to make sure you obey.

    “Report sets out common ground for sustainable diets
    30 May 2013How can sustainable diets become the norm in Europe? The ‘LiveWell for LIFE’ project (LIFE10 ENV/UK/000173) has published a new report that addresses this question”

    1. John F. Hultquist

      I just looked at some of their material. I learned:

      “The project is funded through the EU’s LIFE Programme for the Environment and will be implemented over three years (2011-2014) by WWF (WWF-UK, WWF European Policy Office ) and Friends of Europe.”

      In the US and Canada the WWF is known as the World Wildlife Fund while for the rest of Earth the group is officially the World Wide Fund for Nature, but still going by WWF.

      The juxtaposition of the two words “wide” and “fund” is telling. Regardless of where you are on Earth, they want your money. The leaders and their useful idiots want to control everything you do using your money and “your guilt” to do it. Here is a rough translation:
      ““ Please look at our pretty pictures of food and only eat the things we say you can because it will help lower the CO2 coming from the food chain. Mostly this implies eating more of things you dislike and less of things you do. But some of us have lots of money and are vegetarians and we want you to be a good vegetarian too.””

      Cue on 3,2,1 – – Soylent Green

  8. Archie Bradley

    In the US, wind power receives a production tax credit (PTC) of 1.5¢/kWh in 1993 dollars for each kW·h produced, for the first ten years; at 2.2 cents per kW·h in 2012, the credit was renewed on 2 January 2012, to include construction begun in 2013.

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