IPCC Projected 2100 Temperature Range Corrected Downward Almost a Full 1°C, German Blog Shows

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The IPCC corrects projected temperature range for 2100 downwards by 1°C
By Michael Krueger, Science Skeptical
(Translated and edited by P Gosselin)

The IPCC AR5 Summary for Policymakers was released at the end of September, followed some days later by the Working Group 1 Report. The press directed much of its attention to sea level rise, as this magnitude was corrected upwards compared to the last 2007 report.

But the media gave  little attention to the expected temperature increase until 2100 for the various scenarios. Let’s take look at the temperature scenarios of the 2013 report and compare them to those of 2007. Taking a closer look we see a less alarmist picture than what we are told about sea with sea level.

Compared to the IPCC report of 2007, the range for projected temperature for the various scenarios until 2100 were corrected downwards by almost a full degree Celsius in the 2013 report. This is clearly depicted by the side-by-side comparison of the two charts from the respective 4th and 5th climate reports:

IPCC-2007-vs-2013b

Range of projections of 2007 (left), 2013 (right)

In the 4th report (left) the range of the temperature scenarios up to the year 2100 was between 1.1°C (scenario B1, lowest value) and up to 6.4°C (scenario A1Fl, upper value).

But now in the 5th report (right), the values have been corrected downwards and now range from only 0.2 to 0.3°C (scenario RCP2.6, lowest value) to 5.5°C (scenario RCP8.5, highest value). Thus the range of the temperature scenarios have been corrected downwards by approximately 0.9°C.

Because this is now a less alarming scenario and contradicts the notion of a more rapidly warming world, the media likely shifted their focus over to sea level rise.

In the following comparator the red arrow shows how the range for the temperature scenarios for 2100 was corrected downwards approx. 0.9°C. The latest range starts with a temperature that barely rises over the next 87 years, thus assuring in the future that climate scientists will always be able to say their models were right.

IPCC-2007-vs-2013

This downward correction was never presented as good news, and the media continue spreading fear and horror.

And with the temperature scenarios being corrected downward, one would logically think that sea level rise would also be less than projected in 2007. But the IPCC sees that in the opposite way. Instead of correcting sea level rise downwards, it jacked them up. Obviously there’s a lot of confusion about the climate system.

Also the absence of global warming over the last 15 years has been insufficiently communicated by the IPCC and the press. Here it is best keep quiet about it rather than uncovering and informing the public.

The press so far has failed to notice that the temperature scenarios and climate sensitivity have been corrected downwards by the IPCC. Yet the fact that both these parameters were corrected downwards is presumably owing to the fact that global temperatures have not risen in 15 years. This is how models and observations can be made to agree. ;-)

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9 responses to “IPCC Projected 2100 Temperature Range Corrected Downward Almost a Full 1°C, German Blog Shows”

  1. Bernd Felsche

    I also note that the error bands have been widened from about ±0.5⁰C to about ±1⁰C for their projections/scenarious/soothsaying for temperatures in 2100. One has to admire the chartmanship where the labelling interval of the vertical axis has been doubled, making the widening less obvious.

    The IPCC have doubled their uncertainty in the models.

    1. Bernd Felsche

      Michael Krueger has responded to my comment on his blog pointing out that I should be comparing the grey bars to the right of the squiggles. Indeed, AR4 says that the shaded regions on each of the squiggles represents ±1 standard deviation whereas the figure from AR5 SPM says it’s “uncertainty”; which by “default” for the SPM is 90% making it slightly less than ±2 standard deviations (±2 SD is near enough to 95% in a normal distribution).

  2. Ike
    1. DirkH

      As the stranglehold on reporting seems to be weakening – remember, a short time ago Bojanowski wasn’t even allowed to comment on the climate complex; he only did the splendid geology reports at Der Spiegel – it becomes obvious that the EU regime loses control.

      They currently concentrate their censorship efforts on a much bigger, much more dangerous topic. Pushing through the IPCC climate science caricature has fallen by the wayside.

      Many fires to be extinguished in the foundations of the Eurocratic utopia; very few firemen.

  3. tom0mason

    Unfortunately they still beat the big government drum of carbon(CO2) taxes, even though there is so little evidence to support it as a major hazard.
    Hopefully that is what the media will notice next – no temperature rise, no significant extreme weather – so why all the taxes/tariffs etc., for a non-existant problem.

  4. Ulrich Elkmann

    Do not let the absence of wolves lull you into false security. We have just discovered that dragons are hiding in the woods, too:

    http://ibnlive.in.com/news/suns-magnetic-field-about-to-flip-could-affect-earths-climate/426866-11.html

    “The Sun’s magnetic field is soon going to flip by 180-degrees which could lead to changes in climate, storms and even disrupt satellites, scientists have warned. ”

    It reverses EVERY time in a solar cycle, i.e. every 11 years. It has failed to unleash Armageddon in space for the last 55 years, or down here for a bit lonegr…
    They really must be getting desperate.

    1. DirkH

      Similarly: scientists discover meltwater rivers under Antarctic ice sheet (that have always been there) and the first thing they say is “could be destabilising parts of the Antarctic ice shelf immediately around them and speeding up melting, researchers said. ”

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/10358991/Vast-streams-found-beneath-Antarctic-ice-sheet.html

      Makes you lose all respect for academia.

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