Today I would like to debunk the claim that we have to act now because there’s a “97% consensus”.
In debates I keep hearing the claim that “97% of scientists agree” on global warming science and thus, with such an overwhelming consensus, taking action is a no-brainer. For example Hollywood actor and college dropout George Clooney recently parroted the argument that if 97 of 100 doctors recommend a procedure and 3% don’t who are you going to listen to?
Would you listen to the 97 if you knew they had been wrong for 16 years and the remaining 3 had been right all along?
So in climate science and policy, should we listen to the “97%” and act now? Or should we listen to the outlier 3% fringe group? The answer to that question is: Don’t listen to the winner of the popular vote, rather listen to the group that is right. And it turns out that the “97%” have been wrong for the last 16 years and the 3% minority have been right.
97% have been wrong for 16 years
Let’s look at the models coming from the “97% consensus” and see how they are doing compared to the real observed data. Here’s a plot by Dr. Roy Spencer:
Almost all the models from the “97%” have been flat out wrong.
But isn’t Dr. Roy Spencer one of those deniers? Don’t we need to look at a really objective source like the IPCC? Next is a chart from an early, untampered draft of the IPCC 5AR, with additional information from Dr. Ira Glickstein:
Source: wattsupwiththat.com/. “IPCC AR5 draft figure 1-4 with animated central Global Warming predictions from FAR (1990), SAR (1996), TAR (2001), and AR5 (2007).” Graphic by Dr. Ira Glickstein.
Once again we see the models from the “97%” have all been wrong.
There are other charts out there, and they all tell us the same story: The models have been wrong from the first day.
Observed data show that the 3% are right
Even the IPCC’s own chart shows that the models from the 97%” have all overstated future warming.
The next time someone uses the consensus argument, ask him/her if we should believe the 97% who are wrong, or the 3% who are proven right.
Science is not decided by a show hands. If that’s how science had been done in the past, then man would still be walking on four limbs. Science moves by one voice showing the consensus is wrong.