Nature here today has a commentary acknowledging that the warming pause is real and that it has grown into a full blown trend – it is no longer just noise! “Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’, scientists are piecing together an explanation.”
Hat/tip: Barry Woods. Nature writes:
The biggest mystery in climate science today may have begun, unbeknownst to anybody at the time, with a subtle weakening of the tropical trade winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean in late 1997. […]
For several years, scientists wrote off the stall as noise in the climate system: the natural variations in the atmosphere, oceans and biosphere that drive warm or cool spells around the globe. But the pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis of confidence in the field.”
Don’t let Nature fool you here. It’s actually a major crisis of confidence. Nature even acknowledges natural factors are in play after all.
An analysis of historical data buttressed these conclusions, showing that the cool phase of the PDO coincided with a few decades of cooler temperatures after the Second World War (see ‘The Pacific’s global reach’), […]
…and that the warm phase lined up with the sharp spike seen in global temperatures between 1976 and 1998.″
On climate models:
…none of the climate simulations carried out for the IPCC produced this particular hiatus at this particular time.”
And Susan Solomon is now moving the goal posts once again, claiming that the “main focus ought to be on timescales of 50 to 100 years”!
So why the unexpected hiatus? Nature floats out a number of possible reasons: aerosols, ocean cycles, solar activity – no one knows!
But Kevin Trenberth refuses to give up hope, and keeps clinging to the climate catastrophe: “At some point, the water will get so high that it just sloshes back.” And when that happens, if scientists are on the right track, the missing heat will reappear and temperatures will spike once again.”
In the meantime, only one thing is sure: Scientists haven’t been “on the right track” – not in 15 years!