The Stages Of The Warming Hiatus Reaches New Level: From Nothing, To Noise…And Now To A Full Blown Trend, Nature Concedes!

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Nature here today has a commentary acknowledging that the warming pause is real and that it has grown into a full blown trend – it is no longer just noise! “Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’, scientists are piecing together an explanation.”

Hat/tip: Barry Woods. Nature writes:

The biggest mystery in climate science today may have begun, unbeknownst to anybody at the time, with a subtle weakening of the tropical trade winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean in late 1997. […]

For several years, scientists wrote off the stall as noise in the climate system: the natural variations in the atmosphere, oceans and biosphere that drive warm or cool spells around the globe. But the pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis of confidence in the field.”

Don’t let Nature fool you here. It’s actually a major crisis of confidence. Nature even acknowledges natural factors are in play after all.

An analysis of historical data buttressed these conclusions, showing that the cool phase of the PDO coincided with a few decades of cooler temperatures after the Second World War (see ‘The Pacific’s global reach’), […]

…and that the warm phase lined up with the sharp spike seen in global temperatures between 1976 and 1998.″

On climate models:

…none of the climate simulations carried out for the IPCC produced this particular hiatus at this particular time.”

And Susan Solomon is now moving the goal posts once again, claiming that the “main focus ought to be on timescales of 50 to 100 years”!

So why the unexpected hiatus? Nature floats out a number of possible reasons: aerosols, ocean cycles, solar activity – no one knows!

But Kevin Trenberth refuses to give up hope, and keeps clinging to the climate catastrophe: “At some point, the water will get so high that it just sloshes back.” And when that happens, if scientists are on the right track, the missing heat will reappear and temperatures will spike once again.”

In the meantime, only one thing is sure: Scientists haven’t been “on the right track” – not in 15 years!

 

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26 responses to “The Stages Of The Warming Hiatus Reaches New Level: From Nothing, To Noise…And Now To A Full Blown Trend, Nature Concedes!”

  1. Barry Woods

    Now if the cool pdo phase causes global surface air temps to temps to stall……

    http://www.nature.com/polopoly_fs/7.14906.1389714879!/image/Warming.jpg_gen/derivatives/lightbox/Warming.jpg

    …. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist (or any rational person) to consider next:

    Does the warm PDO phase cause temps (or a portion of) to rise?

    But I don’t think, they can quite acknowledge that yet (at Nature)

  2. Barry Woods

    Worth repeating Met Office Chief Scientist Dame Julia Slingo:

    (30 yr pause possibility due to PDO, and the possibility it cause (proportion of) rapid 80-90’s warming?

    Slingo:

    “…it’s a great presentation about 15 years being irrelevant, but I think, some of us might say if you look at the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and it’s timescale that it appears to work, it could be 30 years, and therefore I think, you know, we are still not out of the woods yet on this one. … If you do think it’s internal variability, and you say we do think the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a key component of this, and it’s now in it’s particular phase, but was previously in the opposite phase, could you not therefore explain the accelerated warming of the 80s and 90s as being driven by the other phase of natural variability?”

    – See more at: https://notrickszone.com/2014/01/10/oops-trenberth-concedes-natural-ocean-cycles-contributed-to-1978-1998-warming-after-all-co2-diminishes-as-a-factor/#sthash.5v34Sbb9.dpuf

  3. Barry Woods

    Sir Brian Hoskins, in response to the Met Office new decadal (flat temp) forecast, last Januray suggesting natural variability caused a bigger proportion of warming in the 90’s

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23060-has-global-warming-ground-to-a-halt.html#.UtexAPRdV6Q

    Are these cycles just something scientists have invented to explain away the lack of recent warming?

    No. The Met Office admits that we still know far too little about how these natural cycles work, and how big they are. And climate scientists are open to the charge that they ignored the potential impact of natural variability when it was accelerating global warming. According to Brian Hoskins of Imperial College London, it now looks like natural cycles played a big role in the unexpectedly fast warming of the 1990s.

  4. Ulrich Elkmann

    Thomas Kuhn has been variously accused, in the past 50 years, of cherry-picking – that most “revolutions in the sciences “did not, in fact, proceed according to the pattern of his half dozen exemplars (geocentrism vs. heliocentrism, evolution, plate tectonics). With CAGW, it seems, we are in for as clear-cut an example of a Kuhnian paradigm shift as one could possibly want.

    1. DirkH

      Given that a revolution is per definition violating the law of the previous regime; I would prefer to call CO2AGW revolutionary science – as it ignores normal science’s rules – and what we witness now is the collapse of the revolution. We have not yet re-established rule of law, but the revolutionary regime is losing control. Some strongholds are still refusing to capitulate but running out of ammo.

      Meaning the scientific method is regaining ground.
      Kuhn didn’t mention the failed revolutions.

      1. JP

        Yet the principal paradigms underlying the AGW consensus remain intact. One still cannot put into question the following edicts:

        1. there is something called a greenhouse effect;
        2. weather is ultimately mechanical, as opposed to electrical.

        A lot of work remains in front of us…

  5. Stephen Richards

    scientists are piecing together an explanation.”

    They have already tried several including Trenberths famous cache-cache heat in the oceans which automatically bypasses the surface and dives deep to hide itself.

    They get more and more stupid nd indefensible

  6. Pethefin

    Solomon is following what seems to be a new game plan for climatologists. It was originally introduced by David Kennedy during during a UK Parliament committee hearing (starting at 10:20:20 in the video recording available at http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/1/8/deben-and-kennedy-sinking-fast.html) made a claim that the climate models do not involve short times scales under 50 years. He is trying to “play a blinder”, not too many of us will be here when the time is up for the model verification in Kennedy’s terms. In other words, Kennedy is telling us to forget the 15-year-Phil-Jones and 17-year-Santer periods for falsification, and to wait 33 more years, while in the mean time to trust him and the other “experts” in terms of policy recommendations. Too bad for Kennedy that his team-mate Kevin Trenberth lost his patience:
    https://notrickszone.com/2014/01/10/oops-trenberth-concedes-natural-ocean-cycles-contributed-to-1978-1998-warming-after-all-co2-diminishes-as-a-factor/
    by admitting that the latest warming period (before lack of warming) was “partly” caused by natural variations.

    1. DirkH

      Pethefin
      16. Januar 2014 at 13:41 | Permalink | Reply
      “Kennedy is telling us to forget the 15-year-Phil-Jones and 17-year-Santer periods for falsification, and to wait 33 more years”

      They want us to accept their conjecture as true until proven false; when the normal procedure is to view conjecture as false until proven true.

      CO2AGW politics can only survive by inverting logic.

      1. Pethefin

        From the looks of the this PDO-graph:

        http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/ipcc-amo-pdo-warming.jpg

        this new warmist game plan looks quite good since 30 more years and the globe should be in a new warming period by then. Never mind the years in between.

  7. mwhite

    30 years and they’ll all be getting their tax payer funded pensions.

  8. Buddy

    I see that Australia set a record for the highest average temperature ON RECORD FOR ALL OF 2013. Looks like 2014 is starting out the same….

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/tennis/news/20140116/australian-open-extreme-heat-mailbag/

    Here are the deniers (as the black kinight):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8Ly1_NKTVU

    1. handjive

      Buddy, keep SI for the pictures. Here is the facts:
      It is not unusual in summer for southeastern Australia to experience a run of temperatures above 100°F (37.8°C), especially inland. However, two heat-waves stand out:
      http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/temp2.htmBuddy

      Marble Bar heatwave, 1923-24
      http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/temp1.htm
      .
      Would Buddy like to remind everyone what the carbon(sic) levels were during those heat waves?
      Post it here Buddy, so we can see who is in denial.

      1. handjive
    2. handjive

      PS Buddy,

      Here is an instructive video of a Global warming scientist cooking up a scientific fraud: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdCWgWlbyLU

  9. Bill Butler

    As per usual, Global Warming Deniers fabricate stories that are just pure fiction.

    The assertion that we are
    “Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’”
    is not true.

    Despite the fantasies of Global Warming Deniers, the earth continues to warm at the rate of 4 Hiroshima atomic bombs per second – running 24/7 – including the years from 1998 to present.
    http://www.skepticalscience.com/4-Hiroshima-bombs-worth-of-heat-per-second.html
    Earth’s Rate Of Global Warming Is 400,000 Hiroshima Bombs A Day
    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/12/22/3089711/global-warming-hiroshima-bombs/#

    2005 was warmer than any previous year. Then 2010 broke the 2005 record. Data at:
    NOAA/National Climate Data Center
    ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat

    2012 was the warmest year on record for the United States.
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/ncdc-announces-warmest-year-record-contiguous-us

    Sea level continues to rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melting. The current rate of rise has quadrupled since the 1870 to 1924 period.
    Columbia University
    http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/

    Glaciers continue to melt, and the rate of melting has accelerated since 1998.
    World Glacier Monitoring Service
    http://www.wgms.ch/mbb/sum12.html

    Ocean heating has accelerated sharply since 1998. Graph at:
    http://www.durangobill.com/GwdLiars/GwdOceanHeat.jpg
    Full peer reviewed paper at:
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50382/full
    Up to date info at:
    NOAA/National Oceanographic Data Center
    http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/ (click on “2”)

    Why Climate Deniers Have No Scientific Credibility: Only 1 of 9,136 Recent Peer-Reviewed Authors Rejects Global Warming
    http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/01/08/why-climate-deniers-have-no-scientific-credibility-only-1-9136-study-authors-rejects-global-warming

    And finally, November 2013 just set a record for the warmest November in history.
    NOAA/National Climate Data Center
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/11/

    More at:
    http://www.durangobill.com/GwdLiars/GwdGlobalWarmingStoppedIn1998.html

    1. handjive

      Bill, you might want to correct your 4 Hiroshima bombs per second to 400,000.
      The world’s leading climate scientist quote:
      “the accumulated manmade global warming pollution in the atmosphere now traps enough extra heat energy each day to equal the energy that would be released by 400,000 Hiroshima-scale atomic bombs exploding every single day.”

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/al-gore/carbon-dioxide-400-parts-per-million_b_3253361.html

      All consequential links you provide will need that adjustment.
      Just adjust the level of alarmism to ’11’.

      Glad to help.

    2. Pethefin

      So Bill, are you really calling all those climate scientists who admitted the lack of warming in the Nature article as deniers?
      (see the link in the beginning of this post)

      1. Pethefin

        and Bill, while you at it, take a look at this list of other well-known climate scientist who also seem to fall into your category of deniers/sinners admitting the pause/hiatus/lack of warming that were compiled and presented by a poster named Jimbo at WUWT:

        http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/14/no-matter-if-its-a-climatic-pause-or-jolt-still-no-warming/#comment-1536057

        ” Jimbo says:
        January 14, 2014 at 3:49 pm

        OK, here it is again. Here is the list showing the history of global warming standstill angst. It starts with our dear Professor Phil Jones (the slippery snake).

        I will have to add some for 2014, but I will have to wait a few months maybe.

        Dr. Phil Jones – CRU emails – 5th July, 2005
        “The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only 7 years of data and it isn’t statistically significant….”

        Dr. Phil Jones – CRU emails – 7th May, 2009
        ‘Bottom line: the ‘no upward trend’ has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.’
        __________________

        Dr. Judith L. Lean – Geophysical Research Letters – 15 Aug 2009
        “…This lack of overall warming is analogous to the period from 2002 to 2008 when decreasing solar irradiance also countered much of the anthropogenic warming…”
        __________________

        Dr. Kevin Trenberth – CRU emails – 12 Oct. 2009
        “Well, I have my own article on where the heck is global warming…..The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”
        __________________

        Dr. Mojib Latif – Spiegel – 19th November 2009
        “At present, however, the warming is taking a break,”…….”There can be no argument about that,”
        __________________

        Dr. Jochem Marotzke – Spiegel – 19th November 2009
        “It cannot be denied that this is one of the hottest issues in the scientific community,”….”We don’t really know why this stagnation is taking place at this point.”
        __________________

        Dr. Phil Jones – BBC – 13th February 2010
        “I’m a scientist trying to measure temperature. If I registered that the climate has been cooling I’d say so. But it hasn’t until recently – and then barely at all. The trend is a warming trend.”
        __________________

        Dr. Phil Jones – BBC – 13th February 2010
        [Q] B – “Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming”

        [A] “Yes, but only just”.
        __________________

        Prof. Shaowu Wang et al – Advances in Climate Change Research – 2010
        “…The decade of 1999-2008 is still the warmest of the last 30 years, though the global temperature increment is near zero;…”
        __________________

        Dr. B. G. Hunt – Climate Dynamics – February 2011
        “Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend.”
        __________________

        Dr. Robert K. Kaufmann – PNAS – 2nd June 2011
        “…..it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008…..”
        __________________

        Dr. Gerald A. Meehl – Nature Climate Change – 18th September 2011
        “There have been decades, such as 2000–2009, when the observed globally averaged surface-temperature time series shows little increase or even a slightly negative trend1 (a hiatus period)….”
        __________________

        Met Office Blog – Dave Britton (10:48:21) – 14 October 2012
        “We agree with Mr Rose that there has been only a very small amount of warming in the 21st Century. As stated in our response, this is 0.05 degrees Celsius since 1997 equivalent to 0.03 degrees Celsius per decade.”
        Source: metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/14/met-office-in-the-media-14-october-2012
        __________________

        Dr. James Hansen – NASA GISS – 15 January 2013
        “The 5-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slowdown in the growth rate of the net climate forcing.”
        __________________

        Dr Doug Smith – Met Office – 18 January 2013
        “The exact causes of the temperature standstill are not yet understood,” says climate researcher Doug Smith from the Met Office.
        [Translated by Philipp Mueller from Spiegel Online]
        __________________

        Dr. Virginie Guemas – Nature Climate Change – 7 April 2013
        “…Despite a sustained production of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, the Earth’s mean near-surface temperature paused its rise during the 2000–2010 period…”
        __________________

        Dr. Judith Curry – House of Representatives Subcommittee on Environment – 25 April 2013
        ” If the climate shifts hypothesis is correct, then the current flat trend in global surface temperatures may continue for another decade or two,…”
        __________________
        Dr. Hans von Storch – Spiegel – 20 June 2013
        “…the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero….If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models….”
        __________________

        Professor Masahiro Watanabe – Geophysical Research Letters – 28 June 2013
        “The weakening of k commonly found in GCMs seems to be an inevitable response of the climate system to global warming, suggesting the recovery from hiatus in coming decades.”
        __________________

        Met Office – July 2013
        “The recent pause in global warming, part 3: What are the implications for projections of future warming?”
        __________________

        Professor Rowan Sutton – Independent – 22 July 2013
        “Some people call it a slow-down, some call it a hiatus, some people call it a pause. The global average surface temperature has not increased substantially over the last 10 to 15 years,”
        __________________

        Dr. Kevin Trenberth – NPR – 23 August 2013
        “They probably can’t go on much for much longer than maybe 20 years, and what happens at the end of these hiatus periods, is suddenly there’s a big jump [in temperature] up to a whole new level and you never go back to that previous level again,”
        __________________

        Dr. Yu Kosaka et. al. – Nature – 28 August 2013
        “Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
        Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century…”
        __________________

        Professor Anastasios Tsonis – Daily Telegraph – 8 September 2013
        “We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped.”

        (end of quote)

        You seem to have some really serious handwaving to do Bill…

    3. Manfred

      Hiroshima bombs are not a very suitable unit for heat content but shows how ruthless some scientists are in propagating their cause.

      If you are looking seriously at this issue, it will take about 400 further years of warming, just to undo the cooling of the little ice age. And by then, most of the CO2 will be gone. And we would still be far away from the Holocene climate optimum.

      http://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/rosenthal-2013-figure-2c-annotated.png?w=760&h=520

      http://climateaudit.org/2013/11/02/rosenthal-et-al-2013/

    4. DirkH

      Bill Butler
      16. Januar 2014 at 21:30 | Permalink | Reply
      “”Despite the fantasies of Global Warming Deniers, the earth continues to warm at the rate of 4 Hiroshima atomic bombs per second – running 24/7 – including the years from 1998 to present.”

      No, bill; if we were warming, temperatures would rise. They are not, so we are not “warming at the rate of 4 Hiroshima atomic bombs per second”.
      Besides, this alleged energetic imbalance is a model-based calculation – but the models have failed for 17 years now, as they cannot model the stop in warming. So you want us to place trust in models that have already been falsified! The trend that the models signify is already fantasy. It would be stupid to take guidance from a model that diverted from reality 17 years ago and never reconnected to reality.

      The modelers must now create new models, and we can then give them two decades in which we validate their new models before we place any trust in any of their statements again. The old models must be junked.

    5. John M

      Not that I want to add to Bill’s psychoanalysis costs to treat is anxiety attacks, but I did this calculation a while back.

      http://rankexploits.com/musings/2013/alternate-units-average-temperature-change-over-layer/#comment-119708

      Eagerly look forward to Bill’s campaign to close down the World’s chocolate factories.

  10. Jimbo

    Most sceptics knew that as long as warming did not resume then this day was inevitable. Over the past year the pause has been the issue and climate scientists are now in a corner – painted by themselves. A decade of cooling should end this racket.

  11. Manfred

    Sceptics have been saying this for … ever.

    Holtzbrinck’s Nature giving credit to very-late-comer Trenberth is rather disgusting. There have been papers about this even in mainstream science for years, e.g. Compo et al 2009 or Tung et al 2013 just to name two.

    And there is still a long way to go for the inner circle of the climate politbuero.

    Accept the failure of the hockey stick. This is overdue for almost a decade.

    Accept much lower climate sensitivity. Accepting PDO would almost neccessitate that, even if you missed the maths of Nic Lewis, James Annan and others.

    Accept the failure of climate models almost everywhere now.

    Accept that the second main reason of Arctic sea ice melt after positive AMO is black soot. Even Hansen knew that.

    Accept Rosenthal et al 2013, that it takes hundreds of years of ocean warming just to undo the cooling of the little ice age. and that after hundreds of years, manmade CO2 will be mostly just gone and no problem any more.

    Accept that todays heat waves where people live are mostly due to UHI, which is a order of magnitude stronger than any effect of greenhouse gases.

    Accept a much larger role for the sun.

  12. Kurt in Switzerland

    It is very difficult to read this article from Nature and reconcile the conclusions from the IPCC’s AR3, AR4 and AR5 regarding progressively increasing probability of anthropogenic forces being the dominant cause of global warming since 1950 (from 66%, 90% to 95%, respectively).

    Kurt in Switzerland

  13. List Of Well Known Climate Scientists Who Concede There Has Been a 16 Year Pause In Global Warming – IPCC Models Wrong | Power To The People

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