After a record five consecutive colder-than-normal winters, this year’s 2013/14 German meteorological winter (DJF) is coming in as a mild one, reports Germany’s DWD Deutsche Wetterdienst (German Weather Service) here.
This will be the first winter in 6 years that has been above the long-term mean, calculated for the reference period 1981-2010.
According to German weather statistics as of February 15, 2014 the DWD writes:
The summary thus far of this meteorological winter shows that the mean temperature across German was about 2.6°C. The average for the reference period of the years 1961 to 1990 is only 0.2°C, which means the current level is 2.4°C warmer. The current winter will likely be in the Top 10 warmest winters since 1881, as we reported here yesterday.”
The DWD provides a link to a page with the following chart:
Germany’s plot of mean DJF winter temperatures since 1881. Source: www.dwd.de.
The DWD writes that the 2013/14 winter likely will not make it into the Top 3 (1975, 1990 and 2007), unless an unusual warm spell takes hold for the remainder of the month.
The latest forecasts show that the mild weather will continue, thanks to the latest in a long series of low pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic which have that have pumped plenty of mild maritime air over Europe during much of the winter.
Overall, German winters over the last 20 years have been trending significantly cooler, contradicting climate models.
The chart above also shows that after the unusually warm winters, cold ones followed immediately or just a couple of years later. So don’t export this year’s surplus road salt over to the US just yet!