Meteorology professor emeritus Dr. Horst Malberg writes at the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE):
As is evident from the last 15 years, the CO2-driven climate models (and the people pushing them) have a fundamental problem: They did not, or falsely predicted, the current climate development.”
Malberg writes in the conclusion:
The anthropogenic CO2 impact on climate is greatly over-estimated by the climate models and uncritical media, as the recent climate development clearly shows.”
To support this he presents charts that clearly tell us the warming has stopped:
Global annual mean temperature and climate trend since 1970 and climate prognoses since 2001 (blue curve). Chart source: Horst Malberg
It’s not only global atmospheric temperatures that have been cooling, but so have sea surface temperatures:
Annual sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific ENSO region. Chart source: Horst Malberg
Malberg also cites a paper appearing in Nature (August 2013) by Yu Kosaka and Shang-Ping Xie, who conclude that the missing warming since 1998 can be explained in large part by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), i.e. a natural climate process. Their model of global warming showed that about 60% (0.4°C) of the 0.68°C warming occurring between 1975-1998 can be explained by the PDO.
The decline in PDO intensity that then began in the late 1990s corresponds to the end of global warming:
Annual mean temperature anomalies 1975 – 2013. Chart Source: Horst Malberg
In his report at EIKE, Malberg goes into further detail on the PDO’s impact on global climate. He writes that the ocean alone is an internal, secondary climate factor, and that it is not the primary climate driver. And because global temperatures are not responding to rising CO2, the trace gas can no longer be regarded as being a main driver behind climate.
Solar activity today comparable to Dalton Minimum
As the primary factor driving climate, Malberg believes it is the sun. The following charts shows the mean value for sunspot activity since 1679 along with mean Central European temperature anomaly:
Chart source: Horst Marlberg
The above two charts show a striking similarity. Malberg writes at EIKE:
Because of empirical analyses on climate change since the Little Ice Age and analyses of the behavior of the ENSO (BWK SO 18/10 and SO 05/12), we can assume that the integral (direct and indirect) solar impact on decadal climate scales is the primary and original factor.”
With solar cycle 23 came a drastic decrease in solar activity, with a mean sunspot count of 40 in the current solar cycle 24. Such a collapse in solar activity was last seen 200 years ago during the solar Dalton-Minimum.”
The German meteorologist also says that the sun’s current activity is “without a doubt comparable to that of the Dalton-Minimum and corresponds to the approximately 200-year solar activity oscillation of the de Vries cycle“.
No warming until the middle of the 21st century
Malberg writes near the end of the essay that according to the 200-year cycle, no warming can be expected until the solar activity starts picking up again in the middle of 21st century:
The observed data of the last 300 years speak a clear language: The ‘fickle sun’ as the primary driver is what decides the fundamental extent of the cooling and the warming. The climate hypothesis of the dominance of the anthropogenic climate influence belongs immediately under scrutiny. The anthropogenic CO2 influence on climate behavior is greatly exaggerated by climate models and the uncritical media – as the recent climate developments clearly show.”
Professor Dr. Horst Malberg is the former director of the Meteorological Institute at the Free University of Berlin and a member of the EIKE Committee.
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