What follows is a press release from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research.
Original article: Bayr, T., D. Dommenget, T. Martin, S. Power, 2014: The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability. Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2091-y.
Note that their results are based on climate model simulations, the same kind that have had a 97.4 % failure rate thus far (see chart, above).
Yet these scientists think they are good enough to make predictions for the year 2100. This is what I call classic, very transparent quackery (They couldn’t even get the first 15 years right).
That aside, here is the GEOMAR press release (try not to fall off your chair laughing):
Will climate change make El Nino a permanent concern?
27 May 2014/Kiel. Currently there are many indications that an El Niño event will be developing in the months ahead. This could become a lasting situation as a result of increasing global warming – even if the observations of the last decade have been showing the opposite trend. This is the result reached by a study conducted by an international team of scientists lead by the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research based in Kiel. The results have appeared in the international journal Climate Dynamics.
El Niño, or more correctly El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is the strongest climate fluctuation on timescales of a few (2-7) years. The phenomena often occurs at Christmas time and got its name from Peruvian fishermen (Span.: El Niño) and involves a strong warming of the Eastern Pacific and is connected to the absence of fish swarms. Today we know that it involves a coupled system between ocean and atmosphere. The El Niño oceanic component is characterized by the warming of the central and eastern Pacific and the atmospheric Pendant Southern Oscillation, which is a measure for the pressure difference over the Pacific and Indian Ocean. During an El Niño, the area of low pressure that normally lies above the Indonesian region shifts eastwards over the Pacific. This leads to flooding in the eastern Pacific and droughts over northern Australia.
The model studies analyzed by the authors coming from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) , with which the climate projections for the IPCC climate report were calculated, show a general weakening and eastward shifting of atmospheric, equatorial circulation pattern until the year 2100 relative to the mean condition of the years 1950-1979. The pattern resembles a weak but lasting El Niño situation.
The ERA Interim Reanalysis 1979-2012, however, was not able to confirm this trend, but rather it showed an opposite development with a westward shift and strengthening of atmospheric circulation at the equator. “This apparent contradiction can be explained by internal variability in the climate system,” explains the study’s lead author Tobias Bayr of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel. “We believe it is unlikely the models are falsely predicting the development as more than 36 different models and numerous model runs were used for the employed analyses,“ Bayr adds. With the help of the analysis process (Multi-model Ensemble) used for the study, very reliable, robust signals could be extracted from a variety of experiments. “And a clear majority of the models predict we will get a more or less permanent El Niño by the end of this century because of climate warming.”
All observations point to a development of an El Niño in the months ahead. However it remains anyone’s guess on whether or not this El Niño will be the turning point to the trend predicted by the models.
Stunning BS. Amazing such crap gets published nowadays.
Using models of the sort that have had a 97% failure rate thus far, they pretend being quite sure about the year 2100, and yet turn right around and admit that they can’t predict what will happen next year, writing it’s “anyone’s guess”.
Your tax-euros at work, folks. And they (media and established politicians) wonder why skeptic parties won huge in last weekend’s elections.