Recently the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) in Bremerhaven, Germany released a press clipping about polar sea ice, obstinately refusing to acknowledge that there is a trend change happening in the Arctic. It wrote:
The area of sea ice in the Arctic fell to a summer minimum of around 5.0 million square kilometres this year, which is about 1.6 million square kilometres more than the record low in 2012. However, according to sea ice physicist Marcel Nicolaus from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) and Lars Kaleschke from the Hamburg Cluster of Excellence for Climate Research (CliSAP) this confirms the long-term downward trend in the Arctic.”
For what is considered to be a leading institute on the research of polar sciences, it sure seems to have a very poor understanding of the relationship between polar sea ice and other major external factors, such as ocean cycles, e.g. AMO and PDO, and the impacts of other natural cycles.
Note how the scientists seem to naively assume the general trend is linear and downward:
Arctic sea ice extent. The AWI implies the trend will continue downwards. Chart from arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere
To me it is astonishing that sea ice scientists today are taking the linear trend of just a few years data and simply straight-line extending it out decades into the future, something we’d expect to see from a 9-year old primary school pupil. Yet they do point out that weather phenomena led to a particularly large reduction in sea ice the negative-record years of 2007 and 2012.
So just how sure are the scientists about their claims Arctic sea ice is headed downward? Let’s find out.
My bet is simple: I predict that the mean September Arctic sea ice extent for the years 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be safely above the September mean of the years 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. This offer is open to the first scientist from any of the following institutes: AWI, PIK, NSIDC, MPI, CRU, NASA, or other alarmist institutes clinging to alarmist scenarios.
My e-mail address, in case you’re naïve enough to believe your models: firstname.lastname@example.org
I’ll bet 1000 USD to go to a charity.
Listening to these scientists, it should be a hands down no-brainer bet. The consensus says the planet is heating. How confident are you really in your science?