When alarmist climate institutes roll out papers claiming global warming is going to cause severely cold winters, then you have to wonder if they know something is up and are acting preemptively to salvage their crumbling climate science, which not long ago predicted with high confidence balmy snowless winters.
A few reports have already come out indicating this winter could be a real doozy – at least for wide parts of North America. But now we are starting to see such reports popping up for Europe as well.
“Damned cold winter”
Now the Swiss online news site Blick here has an article warning of a “damned cold” winter. Blick begins:
Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts agree: This winter is going to be damned cold. Responsible for this is the early snow in Siberia.”
Blick describes how much of Siberia is already covered with snow, in some places by “up to a half meter”, and it’s only October. This claim is based on the latest NOAA snow cover data. The ECMWF also shows:
Projected snow cover by the ECMWF. Much of Russia will be already covered by snow, providing the ideal breeding grounds for a powerful midwinter Siberian high. See sunriseswansong.wordpress.com.
Early Siberian snow – already snow covered!
But what does that have to do with the winter weather in Europe? Blick explains:
The earlier that snow is on the ground in Siberia, the stronger a Siberian high develops. This blows icy winds also to us in Switzerland.”
Looks like Europeans will have to get used to Russia exporting bitter cold instead of gas. If things develop so, then things could get nastilly interesting for Europe and its winter energy needs. Not to worry though. The old continent has much green energy capacity, which will especially help out (in the springtime when the sun is high enough to power solar panels).
“Warmest year on record” sees early Siberian snow, forecasts of severe winter?
This cold winter development seems to fly in the face of one particular dataset, which claimed 2014 was on track to be “the hottest on record”. Swiss Radio here also reports on how Siberian snow can impact Europe’s winters:
The story is simple: the earlier snow covers the ground in Siberia, the colder it gets there at the start of winter. And the colder it gets in Siberia at the start of winter, the stronger and more powerful the Siberian high becomes in mid winter. And when the Siberian high is strong, then we get invasions of cold air masses. The winter will be cold.”
SRF adds that “one has to go back a few years” to find so much snow in Siberia this early. The SRF even links to a paper on the subject.
Massive Siberian snow also bodes ill for North American winter
weathersavior.com writes here as well:
The rapid increase of snow cover across Siberia in October usually leads to a potentially colder winter in the US due to a negative Arctic Oscillation. A negative AO will allow Arctic air to infiltrate the U.S and is one of the driving factors for snow lovers in the Northeastern U.S.”
Meanwhile, sunriseswansong.wordpress.com writes that the early Siberian snows are what is needed for “breeding bitter cold” and that Joe Bastardi says the current Northern Hemisphere snow cover for this time of year is the 3rd highest!
Finally Kirk Mellish writes that the “Eurasia snowfall is off to a record fast start, which is historically a harbinger of cold winters as shown by research by Dr. Cohen of MIT. It does not guarantee it, but makes it more likely.”
No one can know how the winter will really pan out, and other outcomes just can’t be ruled out. But one thing is sure: the present. And it is showing that the northern hemisphere winter is off to a really nasty start.
Also read kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/.
Personally I think meteorologists may be getting carried away with all the Europe cold winter talk. Perhaps the Siberian chances favors cold winters, but nothing is for sure when it comes to weather and climate (as many climate modelers are finding out).
As I like to say (news report many years from now)…..
“Today NASA’s GISS claims it was the hottest year on record.
Meanwhile, continental glaciers have reached the border of the USA, having covered Canada almost completely. However, Mark Serreze indicated that it was rotten ice.”
On the “stevengoddard” site, he has a related story with additional maps:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/10/31/if-they-were-actual-scientists/
Pierre
There are some good reasons to think that the Euro-winter this year may be a doozy.
Both the N Atlantic and N Pacific temp anomolies have suddenly fallen and the Arctic ice has recovered to near average. These with the increased and early snowfalls across Russia and Asia should increase the PROBABILITY of a below average temp winter. Not garanteed though.
Are there any European Joe Bastardis? – able to look into the past and make their forecasts based on those analgues. Seems to work very well for the guys at Weatherbell.
You might want to check into Piers Corbyn:
http://www.weatheraction.com/
Piers’ website is an abomination. I have tried to persuade him to change in the past.
I thought, this year, I would buy one of his forecasts and try to give it a reasonable VV&T but ended up paying £7 for a weeks forecast that I could have got for £0.
The whole site is just messy and lacks professionalism. By contrast, Joe B, Ryan et al have put great efforts into their site and their public interface. Joe is a pretty good presenter when he needs to be where Piers, IMHO is a bit of a rambler without structure: Just like his website.
I think it is sad. I believe he may have a great deal to contribute to THE DEBATE but seems to get excluded even by other sceptics.
Last winter we did not have a winter in holland, considering the see saw nature, the coming one wil be colder. My five cents.
It entirely depends on the configuration the jetstream locks into. I think that again, some areas close to the equator will get unexpected cold, some areas farther north will get an unexpectedly balmy winter. And, the jetstream will be extremely loopy again.
Pierre
Off topic, but I think you might enjoy this:
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/07/30/michelle-obamas-toxic-veggie-nightmare-white-house-organic-gar/
It’s gonna be hot hot hot with a touch of snow over higher ground. Snow will be a thing of the past, there will be plenty of Ice but no snow fall, the warming will cause bees and similar species dependent on solar activity not to hibernate but to migrate. Floods will be dry, stormy weather will be scary and more frequent or less scary.
We’re headed into a warming cooling period.
Well, I remember last winter would be “the winter of the century” in Europe. Nothing of the kind happened, on the contrary. So I just wait and see what’s going to happen, nobody knows no matter what they claim to know. If it happens it will be pure coincident, not predicting skills…
Brrrr. Makes my teeth chatter just thinking about winter. I hate cold.
Jet streams are not weather drivers but thet are only the result of large high pressure anti-cyclonic cold air masses, each newer one pushing eastward the previous one. Do not follow this mediatic fantaisy…
Whatever. The reason is obviously the lethargic sun. And that will be with us for the next half century.
Herve D 1. November 2014 at 11:05 |
You still have not reached the source of the problem. Yes, Jetstream'(s) is not the driver it is the director but what is the producer. What is that directs the thing(s) that direct the jetstream.
No crimatologist has ever got to the source. Perhaps there isn’t one. Perhaps there are many complex intra-active sources.
The albedo feedback was only supposed to work so that less snow increased the warming. Now when more snow happens, it naturally increases the cooling because of the albedo feedback. It might be a tipping point to an ice age. Be afraid.
Be aware, that those feedbacks work both ways.
The downhill racing season has started and judging by the video from Sölden, there is already plenty snow.
Meanwhile in Germany…
http://www.wetter24.de/wetter-news/news/ch/3ad06f87262aa1fbc99da4ecdfe8e6c5/article/mit_rekorden_in_den_november.html
It bears repeating: The globe can be getting warmer or colder, but the idea that the human contribution from burning carbon fuels has anything to do with it is not only IMHO the biggest political and intellectual fraud ever – but so says the IPCC itself: http://cleanenergypundit.blogspot.com/2011/10/west-is-facing-new-severe-recession.html.
The ongoing discussion pro and con is becoming akin to the scholastic argument as to how many angels can dance on the head of a needle. Which is, of course, exactly what is intended to achieve a worldwide disorientation away from the actual UN/EU/IMF/IPCC aims of global monetary and energy helotization – and bringing a whole, if not all of science into disrepute. Even the UK Royal Society, inter alia, has become Lysenkoist. viz. http://tinyurl.com/ptgrz34
Besides, an elementary order-of-magnitude calculation – relying on the Zeroth Law of Thermodynamics – shows that, even when allowing the IPCC calculation of man-mad global warming by 2100 reputedly caused by CO2, is so trivial when compared to solar input variability alone, as to be totally irrelevant to ‘climate’, viz.
http://cleanenergypundit.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/eating-sun-fourth-estatelondon-2009.html
I tried to disprove the number 4000 trillion kWh/day insolation but it’s correct.
6000*6000.0*math.pi*1000000.0*1.5*24/1000000000000.0
(python syntax)
gives
4071 [trillion kWh]