Again! 2nd Baltic Sea Report, Hans Von Storch, Show Medieval Warm Period 0.5°C Warmer Than Today!

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How many times must a hockey stick be broken, before alarmists stop wetting their beds? … The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind.
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Second climate status report on the Baltic Sea Region: Medieval Warm Period was Half A Degree Warmer Than Today
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
[Translated, edited by P Gosselin]

In mid-May 2015 the second Climate Status Report on the Baltic Sea region was released. It was coordinated by the Helmholtz Center in Geesthacht, Germany. In a press release the institute explained:

The Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC II), a recently published report, serves as a revision and expansion of the 2008 edition of the BACC book. ‘The current publication for the Baltic Sea area is a regional variant on the global report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),’ says Prof. Hans von Storch, Director of the Institute of Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht and initiator of the report. The comprehensive scientific survey includes work from 141 scientists from twelve countries. The project team was coordinated by the International Baltic Earth Secretariat at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht and consists of meteorologists, hydrologists, oceanographers and biologists.

Warming continues

The current study takes into consideration observed climate changes for approximately the last two hundred years as well as possible changes that might occur by the year 2100. These projections are obtained from computer models. Warming air temperature in the Baltic Sea region has already been verified based on measurements, but the increase is seasonally and regionally different. The most drastic recorded increase in warming to have occurred in the northern Baltic Sea region was 1.5 degrees Celsius between 1871 and 2011 during the spring seasons. This number is well above the global warming estimates of up to one degree Celsius documented in the last IPCC report.”

The folks in Geestacht indeed forgot to mention a small detail in the press release, as you will soon see. The first two chapters of the report deal mainly with the climate development of the last 12,000 years and the last 1000 years:

Pages 25-49: Climate Change During the Holocene (Past 12,000 Years)
Irena Borzenkova, Eduardo Zorita, Olga Borisova, Laimdota Kalniņa, Dalia Kisielienė… Download PDF (1004KB)

Pages 51-65: The Historical Time Frame (Past 1000 Years)
Tadeusz Niedźwiedź, Rüdiger Glaser, Daniel Hansson, Samuli Helama, Vladimir Klimenko… Download PDF (912KB)

Obviously the Baltic Sea study goes far beyond the claimed 200 years. So out of curiosity, we examined the first two chapters. In the abstract of the 12,000-year chapter we discovered something interesting (emphasis added):

The Holocene climate history showed three stages of natural climate oscillations in the Baltic Sea region: short-term cold episodes related to deglaciation during a stable positive temperature trend (11,000–8000 cal year BP); a warm and stable climate with air temperature 1.0–3.5 °C above modern levels (8000–4500 cal year BP), a decreasing temperature trend; and increased climatic instability (last 5000–4500 years). The climatic variation during the Late-glacial and Holocene is reflected in the changing lake levels and vegetation, and in the formation of a complex hydrographical network that set the stage for the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age of the past millennium.”

The pre-industrial climate of the Baltic Sea region was everything but stable. According to the study during the period of 8000-4500 years before today, it was about 1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius warmer than it is today. This corresponds to the so-called “mid-Holocene climate optimum”. This is a warm period that is practically unknown to the public and not very well-liked by the media outlets. Suddenly we find a completely new meaning in the press release’s subheading “Warming continues”. It is getting warmer – but nowhere near as warm as it was during the 8000-4500 year before present period.

At the end of the abstract the attention shifts to the Medieval Warm Period, which is a part of the subsequent chapter by Tadeusz Niedźwiedź and colleagues. In the text describing the last 1000 years we find the well-known climate cycle that the IPCC tried to discard: the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, Modern Warm Period. The chapter writes:

According to the scientific literature, there are four climatic periods of the past millennium: the Medieval Warm Period (MWP 900-1350), the Transitional Period (TP 1350-1550), the Little Ice Age (LIA 1550-1850), and the Contemporary Warm Period (CW after 1850).”

Just how warm was it during the Medieval Warm period in the Baltic Sea region? Also here with this inconvenient question the authors do not shy away (emphasis added):

Recent investigations of Fennoscandia by Ljungqvist (2010) showed that the MWP [Medieval Warm Period] occurred between 800 and 1300. At that time, warm-season (May-September) temperatures exceeded the contemporary warming of the end of twentieth century by about +0.5°C. The start of the warming was noted between the ninth and tenth centuries, and the peak temperature appeared at the beginning of the second half of the twelfth century. In a winter temperature simulation over the Baltic Sea region (Schimanke et al. 2012) during that time anomalies reached their highest value of+0.8°C for the MWP.”

The text above is a clear statement. The Baltic Sea region was 0.5°C warmer 1000 years ago.

No one wanted in any way that this important condition get mentioned in the press release. How could it have been warmer 1000 years ago than it is today at a time when atmospheric CO2 concentration was extraordinarily low?

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31 responses to “Again! 2nd Baltic Sea Report, Hans Von Storch, Show Medieval Warm Period 0.5°C Warmer Than Today!”

  1. David Appell

    Everyone agrees that there was regional warming around that time. But, of course, the Baltic Sea is not the globe. The largest study of its kind found no evidence for a global medieval warm period:

    “Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia,” PAGES 2k Consortium, Nature Geosciences, April 21, 2013
    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n5/abs/ngeo1797.html

    From the abstract: “There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age….”

    The ironic thing is that if there *were* a global MWP, it would make our current situation WORSE, not better, because solar climate sensitivity would apparently be higher than is thought (~0.1 K/(W/m2)), raising the chances such a solar fluctuation could significantly add to manmade warming from human-emitted GHGs and make future warming even worse.

    1. TedM

      Regional warming? Is this why the MWP was clearly demonstrated by Law Dome (Antarctica), Ross Sea (antarctic region), Australia, New Zealand and South Africa.

      Also thanks for banning this psychopathic troll, although beware he may try to comment under one of his alias’s

      1. David Appell

        The PAGES 2k study, by many dozens of scientists who examined the data, study did not find the MWP was a globally synchronous warming. It was regional.

        Go read it.

        1. TedM

          Just a few of numerous examples of MWP from the Sthn Hemis

          Williams, P.W., King, D.N.T., Zhao, J.-X. and Collerson, K.D. 2004. Speleothem master chronologies: combined Holocene 18O and 13C records from the North Island of New Zealand and their palaeoenvironmental interpretation. The Holocene 14: 194-208.
          Wilson, A.T., Hendy, C.H. and Reynolds, C.P. 1979. Short-term climate change and New Zealand temperatures during the last millennium. Nature 279: 315-317.

          Eden, D.N and Page, M.J. 1998. Palaeoclimatic implications of a storm erosion record from late Holocene lake sediments, North Island, New Zealand. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 139: 37-58.
          Wirrmann, D., Semah, A.-M., Debenay, J.-P. and Chacornac-Rault, M. 2011. Mid- to late Holocene environmental and climatic changes in New Caledonia, southwest tropical Pacific, inferred from the littoral plain Gouaro-Deva. Quaternary Research 76: 229-242.
          Lorrey, A., Williams, P., Salinger, J., Martin, T., Palmer, J., Fowler, A., Zhao, J.-X. and Neil, H. 2008. Speleothem stable isotope records interpreted within a multi-proxy framework and implications for New Zealand palaeoclimate reconstruction. Quaternary International 187: 52-75.
          Lorrey, A., Williams, P., Salinger, J., Martin, T., Palmer, J., Fowler, A., Zhao, J.-X. and Neil, H. 2008. Speleothem stable isotope records interpreted within a multi-proxy framework and implications for New Zealand palaeoclimate reconstruction. Quaternary International 187: 52-75.
          Hemer, M.A. and Harris, P.T. 2003. Sediment core from beneath the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, suggests mid-Holocene ice-shelf retreat. Geology 31: 127-130.
          Hall, B.L., Koffman, T. and Denton, G.H. 2010. Reduced ice extent on the western Antarctic Peninsula at 700-970 cal. yr B.P. Geology 38: 635-638.
          Bertler, N.A.N., Mayewski, P.A. and Carter, L. 2011. Cold conditions in Antarctica during the Little Ice Age — Implications for abrupt climate change mechanisms. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 308: 41-51.

        2. TedM

          Williams, P.W., King, D.N.T., Zhao, J.-X. and Collerson, K.D. 2004. Speleothem master chronologies: combined Holocene 18O and 13C records from the North Island of New Zealand and their palaeoenvironmental interpretation. The Holocene 14: 194-208.

          Wilson, A.T., Hendy, C.H. and Reynolds, C.P. 1979. Short-term climate change and New Zealand temperatures during the last millennium. Nature 279: 315-317.

          Eden, D.N and Page, M.J. 1998. Palaeoclimatic implications of a storm erosion record from late Holocene lake sediments, North Island, New Zealand. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 139: 37-58.
          Wirrmann, D., Semah, A.-M., Debenay, J.-P. and Chacornac-Rault, M. 2011. Mid- to late Holocene environmental and climatic changes in New Caledonia, southwest tropical Pacific, inferred from the littoral plain Gouaro-Deva. Quaternary Research 76: 229-242.

          1. TedM

            Lorrey, A., Williams, P., Salinger, J., Martin, T., Palmer, J., Fowler, A., Zhao, J.-X. and Neil, H. 2008. Speleothem stable isotope records interpreted within a multi-proxy framework and implications for New Zealand palaeoclimate reconstruction. Quaternary International 187: 52-75.
            Lorrey, A., Williams, P., Salinger, J., Martin, T., Palmer, J., Fowler, A., Zhao, J.-X. and Neil, H. 2008. Speleothem stable isotope records interpreted within a multi-proxy framework and implications for New Zealand palaeoclimate reconstruction. Quaternary International 187: 52-75.
            Hemer, M.A. and Harris, P.T. 2003. Sediment core from beneath the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, suggests mid-Holocene ice-shelf retreat. Geology 31: 127-130.

          2. TedM

            Hall, B.L., Koffman, T. and Denton, G.H. 2010. Reduced ice extent on the western Antarctic Peninsula at 700-970 cal. yr B.P. Geology 38: 635-638.

            Bertler, N.A.N., Mayewski, P.A. and Carter, L. 2011. Cold conditions in Antarctica during the Little Ice Age — Implications for abrupt climate change mechanisms. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 308: 41-51.

    2. AndyG55

      “The ironic thing is that if there *were* a global MWP, it would make our current situation WORSE, not better”

      True, it would show just how cold the Earth currently is compared to the last 10,000 years. !

      1. AndyG55

        And there was a global MWP, and we are currently on the top of a small molehill out of the coldest period of the whole of this short-term interglacial.

        1. David Appell

          What evidence suggests we’re “currently on top of a small molehill?”

          1. AndyG55

            Plenty ! Maybe if you open that brain-washed mind of yours and start actually thinking and search in places other than the propaganda site you suck from, you will find it.

            I am NOT going to help you, because past experience shows you are totally unable to comprehend, because you are a MORON. !!

    3. DirkH

      David Appell says:
      10. June 2015 at 9:16 PM
      “The ironic thing is that if there *were* a global MWP, it would make our current situation WORSE, not better”

      Oh I don’t know. Pomegranates grew in Germany. Not bad if you ask me.
      The Golden Age of Islam ended in 1250. They seem to have profited from the MWP as well. Maybe it is true that a warmer climate warms the cold climates more. Hmm, Maybe the SB Law is right, whatcha think, David?
      Greenland was green. What, you miss the frozen lifeless wasteland? Ah, you’re anti-life, that’s it.

    4. KuhnKat

      Please go to CO2Science and check out their data base of papers on the Medieval warming period. Just because a paper is the largest is meaningless.

      Your meaningless drivel claiming climate sensitivity would have to be even higher to accommodate a warmer Medieval Period is based on the Climate Models inability to backcast that period. The failures of the models is pretty much complete in that they have never matched anything acceptably without manual adjustments.

      Eventually you will just have to get over your delusions. Why not start now. No, we don’t even need to know about it. You can do it in private…

      1. David Appell

        “Your meaningless drivel claiming climate sensitivity would have to be even higher to accommodate a warmer Medieval Period is based on the Climate Models inability to backcast that period.”

        False — its based on simple theory. Solar climate sensitivity can be calculated, to first order, from energy balance and the Stefan-Boltzmann law:

        (1-albedo)S/4 = epsilon*sigma*T^4

        so, differentiating

        dT/dS = T/4S ~ 0.1 K per W/m2.

        T=temperature
        S=total solar intensity at the top of the atmosphere.

        That’s low, much lower than CO2’s climate sensitivity. So if you claim the MWP was global, you need to explain that, and if you attribute it to the sun, you need to explain the deviation from the above value.

        1. DirkH

          Hmm,. as you seem to accept the SB-Law, you also have to accept that any Global warming will warm the cold regions more than the already warm ones.

          This expands biodiversity globally. Why do you hate that, David? Heck, even the UN should like it, with their Agenda 21 and all that! Even Rockefeller should like it! Even The Club Of Rome!

          Ah, I think you’re all liars and it’s not about warming at all.

          1. David Appell

            Wrong. Plenty of species are adapted to cold temperatures. Warming their ecosystem threatens them, with negative implications for biodiversity.

            All species are adapted to their environment. Warming that environment threatens them.

          2. DirkH

            David Appell says:
            11. June 2015 at 11:09 PM
            “Wrong. Plenty of species are adapted to cold temperatures. Warming their ecosystem threatens them, with negative implications for biodiversity.”

            Wait – you dispute that cold regions have lower biodiversity than warm ones? Rain forest == North Pole in number of species? Do you count, one, two, plenty?

    5. Pethefin

      Davis should really read up a bit more, his reference (PAGES2k) has received a lot of criticism for methodological errors:

      http://climateaudit.org/?s=pages+2k

    6. DirkH

      David Appell says:
      10. June 2015 at 9:16 PM
      “Everyone agrees that there was regional warming around that time.”

      Michael Mann never did. His hockey Stick was designed to show NO temperature variation at all before CO2 rise.
      So, David Appell revises the history of warmunism here.

  2. DirkH

    Thanks for pointing this out. German media only reported von Storch’s short term warming statement. von Storch is being the Dishonest Broker here. He probably needs more taxpayer money.

  3. CEH

    Check out the ref. list in chap. 3
    Mann Mann Mann Mann

  4. gnome

    I would be sad to see the warmists banned here. A little light-hearted, if unintended drollery shows just how much their religion has been perverted and helps the understanding of why it has been so soundly defeated. If it weren’t for performances like David’s, it could be easy to forget why there is any problem at all.

    The tears on my cheeks are from laughter, David, and I’m not laughing with you, I’m laughing at you. But don’t be too downhearted- your Michael Mann will someday soon get to explain before a jury, why he thinks the MWP was only a local event. Somehow though, I think I’m looking forward to that a lot more than Michael Mann, even though he brought it on.

  5. TedM

    Some examples of MWP from Sthn Hemis

    Williams, P.W., King, D.N.T., Zhao, J.-X. and Collerson, K.D. 2004. Speleothem master chronologies: combined Holocene 18O and 13C records from the North Island of New Zealand and their palaeoenvironmental interpretation. The Holocene 14: 194-208.
    Wilson, A.T., Hendy, C.H. and Reynolds, C.P. 1979. Short-term climate change and New Zealand temperatures during the last millennium. Nature 279: 315-317.

    Eden, D.N and Page, M.J. 1998. Palaeoclimatic implications of a storm erosion record from late Holocene lake sediments, North Island, New Zealand. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 139: 37-58.
    Wirrmann, D., Semah, A.-M., Debenay, J.-P. and Chacornac-Rault, M. 2011. Mid- to late Holocene environmental and climatic changes in New Caledonia, southwest tropical Pacific, inferred from the littoral plain Gouaro-Deva. Quaternary Research 76: 229-242.
    Lorrey, A., Williams, P., Salinger, J., Martin, T., Palmer, J., Fowler, A., Zhao, J.-X. and Neil, H. 2008. Speleothem stable isotope records interpreted within a multi-proxy framework and implications for New Zealand palaeoclimate reconstruction. Quaternary International 187: 52-75.
    Lorrey, A., Williams, P., Salinger, J., Martin, T., Palmer, J., Fowler, A., Zhao, J.-X. and Neil, H. 2008. Speleothem stable isotope records interpreted within a multi-proxy framework and implications for New Zealand palaeoclimate reconstruction. Quaternary International 187: 52-75.
    Hemer, M.A. and Harris, P.T. 2003. Sediment core from beneath the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, suggests mid-Holocene ice-shelf retreat. Geology 31: 127-130.
    Hall, B.L., Koffman, T. and Denton, G.H. 2010. Reduced ice extent on the western Antarctic Peninsula at 700-970 cal. yr B.P. Geology 38: 635-638.
    Bertler, N.A.N., Mayewski, P.A. and Carter, L. 2011. Cold conditions in Antarctica during the Little Ice Age — Implications for abrupt climate change mechanisms. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 308: 41-51.

    1. David Appell

      Now you’re just throwing anything out, whether it pertains to temperature or not. (CO2 science did much the same thing.) For example, the last paper you list is about the LIA.

    2. David Appell

      The PAGES 2k Supplementary Material has a nice figure (Fig S4, pg 14) of the temperature anomalies for 25yr bins for each of the seven continents. It’s a very good summary; you should look at it.

      DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1797

      1. Pethefin

        You seem to have missed my post above, so here’s something for you to read:

        http://climateaudit.org/?s=pages+2k

        before you continue with your PAGES2k postings

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