Joe Bastardi at his Weatherbell Analytics presents an excellent Saturday Summary that looks back at earlier El Nino events.
Today’s El Nino is being hyped and many are preparing to say that July 2015 will be among the warmest, if not the warmest, on record.
However the veteran meteorologist tells us in the video that according to NCEP at least 9 other Julys have been warmer, among them: 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2009.
According to NCEP, which Joe Bastardi calls the gold standard of temperature because it is based on real time measurement, comes in at 0.145°C anomaly.
What happens after the current El Nino will tell us a lot about the global warming trend, Bastardi says. Should the subsequent La Nina come in cooler than the previous ones, then global warmists will have a tough time explaining it.
Joe reaffirms that he thinks that the globe will cool modestly by 2030 and that the sun and oceans play a far greater role in climate than CO2 does.
But when it comes to the sun’s impact on global temperature he cautions that some are putting too much emphasis on solar cycles and that the coming low solar activity cycles will not play that large a role.
“The heat is not going to get erased by 3 sunspot cycles.”
5 responses to “Joe Bastardi: “Heat Will Not Get Erased By Three Solar Cycles …July 2015 Not The Warmest”
Appears Joe’s receiving the message:
NCEP = ?? How about defining such acronyms? Not all of us are are
au courant to all these abbreviations.
Sorry…National Center for Environmental Protection (an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA))
This year is strange for many reasons. Right now the trade winds are about nominal over the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. Generally we don’t see an El Nino unless we have a trade wind anomaly. There are slack trades in the far western Pacific but the surface temperatures (and water at depth) are cooler than normal there. There is a significant temperature anomaly at depth from a Kelvin wave that came across earlier but it’s just been sitting there. So far the actual indications are that we will see a significant but not a “monster” event as some are forecasting. So far the trade winds have not been cooperating with the forecasts. Far eastern Pacific is actually cooling right now.
El Niño was expected to bring dusty danger to India this year by stopping the country’s annual monsoons, which many of India’s 1.3 billion people rely on for their food to grow.
Happily, the climate predictions were wrong, and India is getting its much needed rains, as Bloomberg reports …
It’s excellent news that fears of a crippling shortfall in India have proven ill-founded.
Millions of people won’t go hungry, millions of parents will be able to pay school fees for their kids.