Despite all the big talk by German political leaders on cutting back CO2 and fighting climate change, the country’s actions speak far greater volumes.
Germany’s CO2 reductions over the past few years have not gone anywhere – except up – despite two consecutive much warmer than normal weather years. These are the results coming from Germany’s leading alarmist climate site klimaretter.de here.
Rising CO2 emissions, energy consumption
At klimaretter.de, alarmist (and fashion trendsetter) Nick Reimer is so disappointed by Germany’s failed CO2 reductions that he was compelled to lash out in an angry post at German climate policy, calling it: “a first class political fraud“. According to the German AGEB here, which Reimer cites, in 2015 German CO2 emissions actually rose slightly as energy consumption rose 1.3%.
So far most of Germany’s reductions have come from the shut down of old dilapidated East German industry in 1990 and the outsourcing of labor-intensive industry to China and abroad. Future CO2 emissions reductions are going to be almost impossible, that is unless the country puts itself on the path of economic suicide.
The dream of 40% CO2 reduction (compared to 1990 levels) by 2020 is a totally wet one, and even the German government officials know it. Reimer moans that German Economics Minister and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel promised Germany would reach its 40% CO2 reductions target by 2020, but it is in fact nowhere near on track to do so. Reimer writes that the country would have to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions 3.25 percent every year in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 – a monumental amount.
GERMANY IS NOT GOING TO REACH ITS TARGET
There are a number of reasons why future cuts in CO2 aren’t going to happen easily.
Firstly, fossil fuels prices are at rock bottom and show no signs of rising soon. People, especially the poor, are rejoicing and no longer worry as much when making that extra trip with the car.
Another reason is that the country will have at least 2 or more million new immigrants by 2020, and they are going to need housing, heat, electricity, cars, refrigeration etc.. It is expected that they will boost the German economy further. Moreover, energy efficiency is not their culture. For example one gas heating specialist told me that many immigrants heat their housing at full blast, with the windows open, with the children running around on tile floors bare foot. It goes without saying that these people have much greater concerns than saving energy, which for them is free anyway. They don’t worry hysterically about every GHG molecule that gets emitted into the atmosphere – like the neurotic environmental westerners do.
A third reason why Germany reaching its CO2 target will be almost impossible is that the mild winter weather we’ve seen the last two years isn’t going to last. This is because the current solar cycle is winding down and the next La Nina is in the pipeline. Despite what some will insist, the cold winters aren’t going to vanish over the next few years. Even the alarmist Potsdam Institute warns that Europe will be seeing cold winters.
The fourth reason Germany will not meet its 2020 CO2 reduction target is because the country is set to shut down its remaining nuclear power plants, meaning more coal power is going to have to come online. Meanwhile subsidies for sun and wind and biogas are still getting scaled back.
2015 “a lost year”
The klimaretter.de alarmist Reimer now calls 2015 “a lost year in the struggle against global warming“, writing that it’s the second year in a row that the country will completely miss its annual reduction target.
In summary, expect to keep hearing lots of lofty climate-protection talk from German politicians, but don’t expect any real action from them. The Paris Agreement, after all, is just a piece of paper, and everybody knows it.