In Paris countries signed a (non-binding) agreement on climate, and now coal will soon disappear from our lives, right? Think again.
A new paper by Japanese scientist Kyoji Kimoto published by Energy and Environment here suggests CO2 climate forcing has been grandly overstated, and as a consequence coal will remain an energy backbone for many nations in the future.
Kimoto maintains there’s been confusion over the Planck feedback parameters.
Here’s the abstract, emphasis added:
The central dogma is critically evaluated in the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory of the IPCC, claiming the Planck response is 1.2K when CO2 is doubled. The first basis of it is one dimensional model studies with the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5°K/km. It is failed from the lack of the parameter sensitivity analysis of the lapse rate for CO2 doubling. The second basis is the Planck response calculation by Cess in 1976 having a mathematical error. Therefore, the AGW theory is collapsed along with the canonical climate sensitivity of 3°K utilizing the radiative forcing of 3.7W/m2 for CO2 doubling. The surface climate sensitivity is 0.14-0.17K in this study with the surface radiative forcing of 1.1W/m2. Since the CO2 issue is removed, coal will be the energy for the future of many nations in terms of the amount of resource and production cost.”
“Basic errors” in the AGW theory
In an e-mail Kimoto wrote he has 5 years experience in the computer simulation of chemical processes and has read most of the leading papers of the AGW scientists and found basic mathematical errors in the theory. His paper suggests that coal’s effect on climate has been considerably exaggerated, and that it will remain an essential energy source for many countries long into the future – due to its economy, availability and reliability.
In the paper’s conclusion, Kimoto states:
The central dogma of the IPCC is theoretically failed that the zero feedback climate sensitivity (Planck response) is 1.2K for 2xCO2, resulting in the collapse of the AGW theory claiming the canonical climate sensitivity of 3K for CO2 doubling.”