Germans go to the polls in three states…
Angela Merkel’s policy of unhindered mass immigration is coming home to roost as her CDU party took a massive body blow in this Sunday’s state elections.
Also Germany’s other mainstream established parties have been dealt severe hits as voters went to the polls in three states: Saxony Anhalt, Baden Württemberg and Rhineland Palatinate.
Rise of the Right
The recently minted populist rightwing Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) – Alternative for Germany- has risen into a major party that will certainly become a thorn in Germany’s consensus-oriented mainstream political landscape.
The AfD pulled in an astonishing 24% in the eastern state of Saxony Anahlt amid growing fears of an emerging right. They performed strongly elsewhere as voters ignored warnings not to vote for them.
The preliminary results and the change from 2011 are in:
Saxony Anhalt
CDU conservatives 29.7 % (lost 2.8%)
SPD socialists 10.2% (lost 11.3%)
Linke (leftists) 15.7.9% (lost 8.0%)
Grünen (greens) 5.0% (lost 2.1%)
FDP free democrats 3.8% (gained 1.2%)
AfD (rightwing) 24.0%
Baden Württemberg
CDU Conservatives 26.9% (lost 12.1%)
SPD socialists 12.8% (lost 10.3%)
Linke (leftists) 2.9% (gained 0.1%)
Grünen (greens) 30.5% (gained 6.2%)
FDP free democrats 8.4% (gained 3.1%)
AfD (rightwing) 14.9%
Rhineland Palatinate
CDU Conservatives 32.0% (lost 3.2%)
SPD socialists 36.8% (gained 1.1%)
Linke (leftists) 3.0% (no change)
Grünen (greens) 5.2% (lost 10.3%)
FDP free democrats 6.2% (gained 2.0%)
AfD (rightwing) 11.7%
The numbers will be revised as the evening goes on.
Overall it’s clear that Germany’s mainstream parties took severe hits. In protest to the handling of immigration policy, a large chunk of voters opted for the AfD party. It’s unknown whether the AfD has any staying power. They’ve been under massive attack by the media and established politicians.
The FDP Free Democrats appear to have emerged from their near extinction, managing to squeak by the 5.0% threshold in all three states.
One thing is certain: Germans are demanding alternatives to the consensus-driven culture that has gripped the country since Angela Merkel has been in office as chancellor. Germans don’t mind immigration, and understand it is necessary. They just want it to be done right. Sound familiar?
More analysis here: http://www.thelocal.de/20160313/merkel-on-course-for and
www.dailymail.co.uk/Angela-Merkel-set-punished-voters-open-door-html
Looks like the Green party won Baden-Württemberg. This was unthinkable even a few months ago.
In Saxony Anhalt, it is still unclear if the greens (currently 5%) or the FDP (currently 4.9%) have got above 5%, which they need to be represented in the parliament.
Even for an english speaking person, i would look at the tagesschau page to see the latest results in all three states:
http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2016-03-13-LT-DE-BW/
http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2016-03-13-LT-DE-RP/
http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2016-03-13-LT-DE-ST/
Saxony Anhalt will have serious problems forming a government, if the greens (and/or the FDP) do not make it above 5%.
But they all but collapsed in the other two states
Hello Pierre,
have you seen this? http://goo.gl/nFyvXh
Wahlbetrug?
Just routine incompetence.
[…] No Tricks Zone, by P […]
The election in my home state of Baden-Württemberg is a utterly singular event. Take a look at this site and scroll down to the election district map:
http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2016-03-13-LT-DE-BW/
We knew that it would get close and we also knew that the Greens could be slightly ahead of the CDU. But what really happened only becomes clear, while looking at the districts.
That map is supposed to be totally black. That is, what it was for the last 50 years. Basically the CDU would wind 60+ of the 70 districts.
This year, with loses to the AFD and a strong green party, the CDU has even lost in the countrysite and now the Green party seems to have won the majority of districst.
I would have never thought that this could happen. i would have expected the CDU to keep most of them, with the greens only winning Stuttgart and the university towns by a big margin (so they could get ahead on total votes in the whole state, without winning the majority of districst).
This is unbeleivable and many established CDU memebrs of parliament simply lost their job and seat today.
“…loses to the AFD and a strong green party,…” – SOD
Polar opposites gaining strength in the same area. Interesting.
It looks like the Greens won 46 of 70 election districts. That is basically unbelievable (some are really close, so we might still see changes to this first final result).
http://extra.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse/stz/html/index.html#/votingDistricts-vote2-s99-wk044
Such a victory!?
https://wryheat.wordpress.com/2015/02/12/german-wind-power-fails-a-cautionary-tale/
The media part of the National Front likes to categorise the AfD as right-wing, populist.
I’ve watched a recent interview with Frauke Petry, the federal speaker for the party and consider the values that she expounds to be libertarian-conservative. i.e. more like a “bridge” between where the CDU and FDP traditional policy positions.
Perhaps my German is not so good.
Bernd, I listened to a part of the interview with Dr. Petry and I think your German is fine. As AfD is a fairly young party built around the hot issues of national identity I would be stunned if I didn’t find supporters with views contrary to mine but Frauke Petry sounds like my libertarian-conservative friends. I have enough experience with the methods of the German Left to understand why they hate and vilify her.
Is the AfD really “anti-immigration,” or just anti indiscriminately opening the floodgates to allow even the dregs of the most worthless (dangerous and parasitic) foreigners? If the latter, that wouldn’t be “racist” or “xenophobic,” but eminently sensible.
In the interview, Dr Petry didn’t object to immigration, nor to the protection of (real) asylum seekers. But immigration must be with assimilation of German traditions and values, including an appreciation/respect that modern Germany is the product of centuries of enlightened Christianity. Otherwise immigration becomes a simple matter of conquest (“Eroberung”).
“Is the AfD really „anti-immigration,“ or just anti indiscriminately opening the floodgates to allow even the dregs of the most worthless (dangerous and parasitic) foreigners? If the latter, that wouldn’t be „racist“ or „xenophobic,“ but eminently sensible.”
You mean, is the “let us use weapons to stop women and children at the bordes” party anti immigration or simply fascists?
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-beatrix-von-storch-schliesst-waffeneinsatz-gegen-kinder-nicht-aus-a-1074933.html
Well, we do not know, until we see some more of them.
Yes; that’s right sod. Germany has the sovereign right, limited by their Basic Law, to protect the integrity of its national borders using ultimate force if it deems necessary.
Perhaps you object to Dr Petry reading the Basic Law out loud.
“You mean, is the „let us use weapons to stop women and children at the bordes“ party anti immigration or simply fascists?” – sod
The Fascists are those who force a country, against it’s will, to commit suicide by flooding it with enemies. The only reason weapons might be necessary at the border, would be because your leaders betrayed Germany by allowing the enemy to get that close.
“Oh, well, the enemy is at the gates. Might as well let them in. We didn’t want our stupid country or our silly freedoms anyway.”
So, sod, why is it you pretend to be more concerned with foreigner women who would just as soon see you dead, then with German women attacked by foreign men? And why are you contemptuous of those who want to prevent that?
But I’m guessing you really don’t care about the foreigners any more than you care about your own people. You are just using imagined violence against foreign women to manipulate people who care about Germans into not acting to protect themselves. Do you really hate your country that much?
No guns at the boarders = rape in your cities. And that’s just fine with you. And don’t think it will end with just rape. The more of them there are, the worse it will get for everyone, and eventually even for you.
@sod the moralizer
And what about what muslimes are doing to German women?
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2016/01/11/horror-number-of-new-years-eve-rape-investigations-by-muslim-refugees-in-germany-climbs-to-more-than-500-n2102735
And what about how leftists like yourself take the side of the enemy?
http://www.barenakedislam.com/2016/01/24/germany-new-revelations-about-the-horrific-extent-of-the-muslim-sexual-attacks-on-german-women-covered-up-by-the-government-media-complex/
I submit that you care no more for their women than you do for your own. I repeat (comment not shown yet) that you are only trying to silence critics with phony pseudo-moralistic rhetoric.
sod “forgets” that the deeply Green Lord Mayor of Tübingen Boris Palmer also wants borders closed, enforced with ultimate force when necessary.
Against Muslim mass immigration.
The reason can be found in Quran, Sura 9 , Vers 5. For starters.
It seems that AfD is offering an alternative also for tradidional CDU voters who are not happy with the way Merkel has moved the party to a more centralist position. There is a political void here, on the right side, which AfD can turn to their profit. I agree that the party is really to new to give it any clear labels, expect that of anti-immigration. Abroad, or at least here in Norway, they are called “right-wing extremists”, which most likely is more like wishful thinking of left-oriented journalists.
However, I like to see that the Liberals are making a small comeback.
Bernd; AfD is simply the only conservative party.
CDU is now a leftist party according to a long-running poll asking voters to sort in parties in a left-right spectrum.
https://www.contra-magazin.com/2015/12/analyse-ist-die-cdu-wirklich-links-geworden/
Attempts by the plutocrat and state media to characterize AfD as right wing extremists are slander.
Thanks DirkH.
Some days I get the feeling that the language is deliberately running away from my comprehension of it.
The Sachsen-Anhalt result is the most entertaining. It looks like the only possible coalition there is CDU-AfD. Ha ha. That will hurt.
Good to see that the German voters have some power to their elbows, Pierre.
If Merkel has any common sense (clearly she does not) she would resign before the next general election.
All the best.
The solution is obvious and clear. No coalition. Do they really need a majority to form a government? Can the state afford the delays in negotiations and the relevant parties the political compromises of a formal coalition?
Even when there are coalitions, they are fragile and can easily fracture on unforeseen issues.
Those are the things that I was hoping would be discussed by the experts on MDR. Disappointed, but not surprised that that didn’t happen.
“Realpolitik” is a German word but its practice seems to be foreign to Germans.
CDU has the largest share of seats but cannot govern without the case-by-case approval of a sufficient number of others in parliament.
While the AfD ruled out coalition with the CDU, declaring that it prefer opposition, it is not prevented from voting for legislation with which it approves. It is indeed in the AfD’s interest to demonstrate that it can act rationally for the benefit of the people, even when in opposition.
I don’t know about Germany, but parliamentary govts in general need a majority to rule. Elsewhere I am familiar with, if the parties can’t agree to unite for a coalition, new elections have to be called. Risking another toss of the dice, which could leave one in a less favorable position, might be an incentive to cooperate.
Not necessarily, yonason. There are plenty of occasions when a majority of the MPs vote to tolerate a minority government, with the expectation that an ad hoc majority has to be sought for every piece of future legislation (as Bernd wrote could be done here). It is true that such governments may not be very stable or effective but it’s being done because immediate new elections are not expected to change the parliamentary representation enough to allow the formation of a majority government.
I also believe that Bernd is right about the interest of AfD to act in a more constructive role than merely a protest party and support individual legislation by a minority CDU government provided it can cobble together the initial majority to be formed.
Also, let’s remember that this is a state government, with federal elections slated for 2017 and Chancellor Merkel digging in her heels so far on her preferred solutions to the refugee crisis. It will be exciting to watch but I don’t envy my German friends’ “living in interesting times”. We live, of course, in “interesting times” of our own.
Meaning: “… provided it can cobble together the initial majority of parliamentarians to be formed in the first place.”
“There are plenty of occasions when a majority of the MPs vote to tolerate a minority government,…”
Makes sense. It wouldn’t do to have a perpetual stalemate, which one might end up with if no voter changes his mind.
“…with the expectation that an ad hoc majority has to be sought for every piece of future legislation.”
Kind of demands constant involvement, at least if the issue is important enough to them.
“I also believe that Bernd is right about the interest of AfD to act in a more constructive role than merely a protest party…”
Sounds like a plan.
“let’s remember that this is a state government, with federal elections slated for 2017”
Gives the AfD time to capitalize on their momentum, putting them in a better position, if not to fix the problem, but to at least start containing it?
And thanks, that’s exactly the kind of info I was ‘fishing’ for with my comment.
All old parties will unite as needed to isolate the AfD.
This is self-understood by all media and old parties. For instance, an SPD big whig just said, “We are open to talks with all parties” and the writer of the article went on to go through all possible coalitions; and without mention – as it is self-understood – omitted pairings with the AfD from his discussion.
Understand this: They do not see this as a contradiction. They do not even think of the AfD as a party one talks to. They *MUST* be isolated.
@DirkH
How much chance is there that the “old parties” can be weakened in the federal election(s) in 2017? Obviously unless that can be done, they will close ranks against the AfD.
Sadly, corruption in rampant, not just locally but internationally. As Colorado Wellington wrote, we are “living in interesting times.” War isn’t raging around us, so we don’t sense just how much more dangerous, uh, I mean “interesting,” these times probably are.
“The solution is obvious and clear. No coalition. Do they really need a majority to form a government? Can the state afford the delays in negotiations and the relevant parties the political compromises of a formal coalition?”
you need 50+% votes in parliament to elect the Ministerpräsident and to confirm the ministers.
Those compromises (which i do not always like) are the reality of the German political system.
Changing it now and together with the AfD would be suicidal.
“Even when there are coalitions, they are fragile and can easily fracture on unforeseen issues.”
Coalitions tend to be extremely stable in Germany. The break up is a rare event.
“CDU has the largest share of seats but cannot govern without the case-by-case approval of a sufficient number of others in parliament.”
This is a political practise that is extremely rare in Germany. I struggle to even remember a real case of this.
If it is done, then only with few seats missing and in special constellations ( i think i remember an attempt to form a minority government tolerated by the danish minority party in the most northern state of Germany)
changing majorities including the AfD sounds like a totally insane idea. Which other party do you think would join such a deal?
Bernd Felsche 14. März 2016 at 3:05 PM | Permalink | Reply
“The solution is obvious and clear. No coalition. Do they really need a majority to form a government? ”
All parties except AfD are for mass Muslim immigration and will coalesce as needed to maintain that goal and cut off the AfD from power – like all parties in Sweden stand united against Sweden Democrats.
THe old leftist parties love Muslim immigrants because they are by their nature collectivists. The new leftist party CDU is a latecomer to the party and wants in on the game.
A quick scan of the headlines this morning suggests that the establishment parties and their media pushers are going out of their way to downplay the meaning of the elections—at least publicly.
One of those interviewed by MDR TV at the SPD election wake in Saxony Anhalt said words to the effect that it was a sad day for democracy.
Perhaps conveniently overlooking that voter turnout increased by 20% over the previous election. While it might be sad for the SPD that those extra voters didn’t vote for the SPD, it’s hardly bad for democracy when more people make their voice heard in an election.
In this morning’s post-mortem on MDR TV (I’m in Australia, far from the eastern front), they interveiwed a couple in the “canary” electorate of Haldensleben. The man, a teacher, drew parallels between the electoral success of the AfD and, as he said from his studies of history; the rise of the NSDAP in the late 1920’s and early 1930’s. I fast-forwarded at that point.
For “balance”, the MDR had a studio guest, a professor from University of Magdeburg who said that the election result was bad for the state. Amongst other things, he “reasoned” that the AfD policy of removing compulsory
indoschool attendance would devastate the structure of schools and universities. I fast-forwarded at that point.If you’re at all familiar with the wide spread of PISA results between the states in Germany, you wouldn’t support the system in Saxony-Anhalt as it stands. Smart kids are encumbered by equality.
I appreciate MDR’s professional evenhandedness. When they pick a Stalinist to clarify how our societies must be reordered, they have to give an equal opportunity to a Maoist. One would not want to rush to execution at a single expert’s direction. It’s good to get a second opinion.
Oh, no! Simon Hurtz warns in the Süddeutsche Zeitung that it is dangerous to withdraw friendship from all AfD “fascists” and “racists” on Facebook because innocent people and mere simpletons could get caught up in it.
This is very confusing. What should all the right-thinking people do? Unlike or not?
Can somebody issue an authoritative ruling?
The explanation is simple. It just a case of life imitating culinary art.
https://bakingwithsibella.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/027.jpg
I watched them do it. It’s a promising body position but it doesn’t support full frontal navel gaze without mirrors.
http://i66.tinypic.com/n1ysg6.jpg
Thanks. That’s exactly what I was looking for, but had to settle for what I used when I couldn’t find it.