Schneefan at his site here writes about the unusually wet weather Europe has been experiencing lately. This has to be upsetting to global climate modelers and scientists, who years ago claimed Europe would have to expect hot, dry summers involving severe periods of droughts.
That prediction has turned out to be totally wrong. The very opposite has in fact occurred.
The reason for the recent wet conditions are likely in part due to the post (natural) ENSO activity of the past months, which have disrupted weather patterns, Schneefan suspects.
On global temperature we see the clear impacts of the oceanic ENSO. Schneefan writes the following at his site:
“The regional development in Europe is affected by the rash global cooling following the El Niño peak in global temperatures in February 2016.
The rash cooling is also continuing in June 2016 and will lead to further high precipitation in places like Australia.
The above plot shows the 2-meter surface temperature deviations (black line) and that of both hemispheres. Since the El Niño peak of late February, the temperatures by June 13 have fallen off steeply. The SH (green line) is already in the negative. The black line for global temperature is approaching zero. Source: weatherbell.com/temperature.php.
After the plunge in sea surface temperatures (SST) by 0.8°K in the main Niño-area 3.4 in May 2016…
The plot above shows the deviations in ocean surface temperatures (SSTA) in the main Niño-area 3.4. The deviation in May 2016 fell 0.8°K compared to April, 2016, and thus are now 0.3°K below the +0.5°K El Niño minimum value. What stands out is the large difference from the altered NOAA value of 0.64(!)°K for May 2016. Source: May 2016 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update.
…the massive drop in global temperatures also continues in the tropics:
The plot shows the measured/calculated 2m temperature deviation global (black line) and in the tropics (red line). After the high peak in February 2016 the global temperatures have fallen massively as of 13 June 2016. Februar 2016. They have fallen in the tropics already since January 2016. Source: weatherbell.com/temperature.php
Moreover solar activity remains weak as no sunspots have been observed for the 5th consecutive day. It’ll be interesting to see what major weather pattern will be in place in early July (Seven Sleepers Day).
Perhaps there will be a stable omega high over Europe…?