By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German excerpts translated/edited by P Gosselin)
On February 27, 2017, the DWD German National Weather Service concluded in its February report:
February 2017 was much too warm and with only average sunshine
Offenbach, 27 February 2017– At the beginning of February 2017, it was still cold in the north-east due to the influence of high pressure. However, low pressure troughs bringing milder air were already reaching into the south and west of the country. Then, from the middle of the month onwards, all parts of the country were exposed to a powerful westerly airflow that brought much precipitation. These conditions culminated on 23 February with storm gusts, particularly in the west, and spring-like temperatures in the south. Overall, February was much too warm and precipitation and sunshine were almost balanced. This is what the initial analysis by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) of data from its around 2,000 weather stations shows.”
Continue reading at DWD.
The recent February was much too warm! One can easily imagine as follows: A wild temperature peak standing out well above the otherwise usual temperatures. Once again more proof that for years things have been going in only one direction: only hotter and hotter and hotter.
However the DWD does not provide any chart along with its press release. Wouldn’t many people certainly like to see the February heat trend as a chart? It’s a pity that the DWD chooses not to show charts here.
Thankfully Josef Kowatsch stepped in for the DWD and produced a chart using the official DWD data to show the February mean temperature curve for the last 30 years:
Figure: Chart of the February mean temperature over the past 30 years in Germany, data from the DWD, chart: Josef Kowatsch.
The sense of wonder is large: What do they mean by “much too warm”? The climate trend over the past 30 years for February shows a clear downward movement. This year’s uptick is nothing unusual and has happened regularly over the past 3 decades. nach.
This is truly a poor showing by the DWD, which misled the citizens. There is absolutely no reference made to the last 30 years, no chart, no context. This is a most dubious politicization of the weather report…
Moreover what follows is the trend of the North Atlantic oceanic heat, which shows a very clear cooling trend has taken hold since 2007:
Figure: Trend of the North Atlantic heat down to a depth of 700 meters over the past 60 years. Chart: Climate4You
47 responses to “German Scientists Slam DWD German Weather Service Concealment Of February Cooling Trend!”
I’d like to “slam back” and call bs on Josef Kowatsch’s (of EIKE fame) graph.
Link to actual graph derived from DWD data including 30 year moving average which is clearly increasing (even in 2017): http://imgur.com/a/RcXEK
Here is the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D6kFezwgRtyAgPUCTCwPZeTaScNwaqDYJ7d6GWbHw8A/edit?usp=sharing
P.S.: Oh and the “uncertainty” is over +-5 degrees … going with the theme of the last posts on this blog you should come to the conclusion that there is no trend, right? 😉
Oh, and you can get the current timeline for any month right there on their website: http://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/zeitreihenundtrends/zeitreihenundtrends.html?nn=495662
30-year climate trend is downwards. And the uncertainty for Germany temperature is not +-5°C.
2-sigma is +-5.5 °C. The trend may be heading slightly downwards, but please calculate the average temperature for those 30 years and compare it the temperature of February 2017. Higher or lower?
P.S.: Your OHC graph shows the anomalies which are still positive for the very small part of the ocean that this graph is for. Global (absolute) ocean heat content is also decreasing a little bit: https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/heat_content2000m.png … could it be the El Nino that caused the decrease? Who knows …
“but please calculate the average temperature for those 30 years and compare it the temperature of February 2017.”
Yeah let’s compare a 30yr average with a one month average and claim it has meaning! GO FOR IT, NEW MAN! SHOW US YOUR SUPERIOR INTELLECT!
I’ll leave Germany once these morons wreck it completely.
How do you tell if the current February temperature is above or below average for a February? Share your wisdom 😉
Seb~ first off, you don’t compare ONE MONTH out of each year to the ENTIRE YEAR. You compare it to the same month in each of those years.
And who did that exactly?
There’s those big numbers that scare seb so, so much.
What is that AGW agenda MODELLED OHC in degrees C.
And how did they measure it before 2003, seb?
Why did they adjust the ARGO data upwards, seb?
You really are doubling down on your GULLIBILITY, aren’t you, little AGW trollette.
“The trend may be heading slightly downwards”
Well there ya go. 😉
and seb goes bat-shit-crazy over one month of warm temperatures.
Did you say anything in 2012, seb .. or were you tucked up in your fossil fuel heated granny’s basement.
2003.. nah.. pre-pubescent
1996.. still in nappies, weren’t you, seb !
Seb,Sod. It’s over.
Seriously … mentioning Breitbart?
Why not Seb?
Yes, why not citing from or linking to a right-wing bs tabloid publication which has a record of publishing so called fake news. It’s at best opinionated news, Dav!
Breitbart is centralist/ realist.
.. But even Pravda would appear right wing to you, wouldn’t it seb
“Breitbart is centralist”
this claim is insane.
cherry picking the start year at a high point. Anti-science.
And i am also curious, why such a pathetic trend would matter, under such extreme uncertainties.
please explain the difference!
Is 30 years not the magical number the warmunist geniuses have declared to be the interval at which weather turns into climate?
“Is 30 years not the magical number the warmunist geniuses have declared to be the interval at which weather turns into climate?”
again, do a statistical test. You folks are looking like clowns in this discussion.
Just a few days ago folks here wrote exactly the opposite of what you are saying now about trends and their meaning.
Could someone here finally explain this nonsense?
And poor sob looks like he has barely got out of junior high ‘O’ level’s.
You have done nothing anywhere to convince anyone that you even the most rudimentary comprehension of maths or statistics.
why do you not explain stuff to me?
for example what a “statistical system” is? (i was promised a Ph.D.-grade lecture on this recently)
Or why this trend is significant while other trends are not?
zzzzz…it’s over sod. Time to find a new cause. Of course it won’t pay as much.
Sod, it is you are the complete dunderhead here. So tell me what is the GLOBAL temperature trend over the past 30 years? I’ll tell you. It is as insignificant as Germany’s February trend. BUT to get back to the point which was that the Press was trumpeting the February temperature as something akin to a disaster. Why would they do that when as you must surely admit, assuming you have an ounce of common sense, it is CLEARLY NOT?
“Sod, it is you are the complete dunderhead here. So tell me what is the GLOBAL temperature trend over the past 30 years? I’ll tell you. It is as insignificant as Germany’s February trend. ”
no it is not. Because the 30 year in that case is not a cherry pick.
This tool explains this best:
you need to choose a longer time period and look at the right edge of the colour graph (end year 2017). all trends are positive (apart from a really short term time span at the very top) and if you toggle to “trend +significance” all those positive trends remain, only the negative top peak is turned insignificant.
But hey, that is just facts and science!
It’s quite hilarious to see the sebs, sods, nicks, griffs et al running around trying to put out, what they see as, ideological fires.
Every morning, after a cup of coffee, I test the theory of gravity…plop-plop. Check.
What have they got?
Seb comes up EMPTY , yet again.
seb, you have got NOTHING , not even a paper to prove the very basis of your baseless anti-science, anti-life AGW cult religion.
Some plops are bigger than others 💨
The 30 years averages (aka Normals) were meant for reporting to average folks in average towns using average newspapers.
This choice had nothing to do with “global warming” or “climate change” or whatever it is now called.
Climate is not an average.
So how do you tell if something has higher (or lower) than usual value?
“Climate is not an average.”
yes it is, of course!
basically climate is weather over a longer period/region and the only way to look at climate is as an average. This is becoming too stupid to accept!
I see sod has gotten out of bed.
So the average now is MUCH colder than the average of first 3/4 of the Holocene.. is that what you are telling us, sob ??
Or are you Denying Climate Change , yet again. !
“So the average now is MUCH colder than the average of first 3/4 of the Holocene.. is that what you are telling us, sob ??”
Why are you talking to me?
Why do you not tell John, that you can not have a temperature of the Holocene unless you do some sort of an average. He does not seem to understand that basic stuff.
“So the average now is MUCH colder than the average of first 3/4 of the Holocene.. ..
wouldn’t you agree, sob. !!
The point is, the DWD is wrong to say “February was much too warm”. That is false, and even hysterical, hype (or, more correctly, propaganda)–period. Whether or not the 30-year trend is slightly negative, or even if it were slightly positive, is not the point, and incompetent “experts” like sebastian and sod are misdirecting, as usual, in their prim and proper, but entirely irrelevant, complaints.
But I see you here know enough not to take them seriously any more. That at least is a healthy sign.
“Whether or not the 30-year trend is slightly negative, or even if it were slightly positive, is not the point, and incompetent “experts” like sebastian and sod are misdirecting, as usual, in their prim and proper, but entirely irrelevant, complaints.”
sorry, but this is false. The two guys responsible for the absurd graph (Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt) are the two most respectable “sceptics” that Germany has to offer and are about what you have on scientists in Germany supporting your position.
So if they use graphs, which according to the “Ph.D.-grade lecturers” on this blog is total nonsense, then you have a problem.
But nice attempt to talk away your double standards! 9 out of 10 points on the dirty tricks scale!
How would you define “too warm”? And why is a value above average of the last 30 years not “too warm” then? Please explain how you “know” that it is false to call a month that had an above average temperature “too warm”.
but how SWEEEET it is.. 🙂
“but how SWEEEET it is..”
cutting UN funds is utterly insane. That you are happy about it, demonstrates a lot.
As the first comment there states … it’s an opportunity for China.
Its the first step in getting rid of the fascist UN totalitarian one world agenda, that you and sob are part of.
Deflect all you like… fooling yourself, no-one else.
… just please, don’t start crying..
… that would be too funny !!! 🙂
“fascist UN totalitarian one world agenda” … ha, good laugh 😉
Yes, it is good to see that no one takes Seb and Sod seriously. they are here for amusement and to bump up the site traffic. Well done!
no one here … fixed that for you. You should be aware that no one else takes sites like these seriously though 😉
You clearly take this site seriously enough to post so frequently on it.
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