And if there’s a sure sign that fall is arriving in Europe, it is that the Zugspitze, Germany’s highest peak, is forecasting snow for the next 7 consecutive days:
Some may be asking what remains ahead for Europe over the next few months: Can we expect more warm summerlike weather, or should we expect a chilly fall?
Looking at the NOAA CFSv2 weather model for the coming 3 months, signs point to a colder than normal season (click to enlarge).
Meteociel/CFS projection made on August 30th, temperature deviation from the mean at 850 hPa (approx. 1500m) in Europe for fall 2017. Source: www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php.
The projection for the coming European 2017/2018 winter for now looks frigid:
Meteociel/CFS made on August 30th, temperature deviation from the mean at 850 hPa (approx. 1500m) in Europe for winter 2017/18. Source: www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php.
What’s behind the frigid forecast? Schneefan explains:
At the end of August in Eastern Siberia there was an unusual snowfall, which led to widespread power outages and the enactment of a state of emergency.
Early snowfall in Siberia often indicates a higher likelihood of harsher European winters. Do keep in mind, however, that seasonal forecasts are fraught with much uncertainty.
Another factor that bodes ill is that solar activity has since entered into a quiet phase. Studies have shown that European winters tend to be harsher during periods of low solar activity.
Arctic sea ice “death spiral” dies
Arctic sea ice area is currently at the mean of the past decade or so. This means that Arctic sea ice has pretty much stabilized at a low level and does not show signs of shrinking further over the mid-term. The once claimed Arctic sea ice “death spiral” has lost its life.
Greenland snow and ice mass “embarrassment”
Joe Bastardi at the latest Weatherbell Analytics Saturday Summary also looks at the situation in Greenland, which has not been getting any mention from the global warming weather-ambulance-chasing alarmists lately.
Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. Source: DMI here.
In his video, the 40-year veteran meteorologist says Greenland snow and ice mass balance is “way, way, way above normal” and that it is the “climate story nobody is talking about it because it’s an embarrassment given what was being said two years ago, really“.