Renewable energy proponents claim that the planet must reduce its carbon emissions by 80% by 2050 in order to avert excessive global warming.
However, global quality assurance and risk management company Norwegian DNV GL writes in a recent report that although the money spent on renewables is set to triple by 2050 and fossil fuel spending will drop by around a third, “renewables and fossil fuels to equally share supply by mid-century.”
Half of world’s energy will be supplied by fossil fuels in 2050
This means that at least half of the world’s energy supply will still be provided fossil fuels by 2050, and not 80% by renewables.
According to the DNV GL, coal has peaked, oil will peak in 2023 and natural gas will become largest single source from 2026.
The DNV GL also writes energy demand will start to drop by 2035. It also expects that a rapid electrification of the energy system will deliver efficiency gains that will outpace GDP and population growth.
The green energy promoting DNV GL admits that the Co2 and fossil fuel reductions targets will not be met:
Fossil fuels will play an important if reduced role in our energy future with its share of the energy mix set to drop from around 80% today to 50% by the middle of the century, with the other half provided by renewables.”
Only 28% from wind and sun in 2050
Natural gas will become the single largest source in 2026 and it will meet 25% of the world’s energy needs by 2050. Oil will peak in 2023 and coal has already peaked. Solar PV (16% of world energy supply) and wind (12%) will grow to become the most significant players amongst the renewable sources with both set to meet the majority of new electricity demand.”
That’s a far cry from where climate experts say we will need to be.
DNV GL takes an especially optimistic view of the electrification of society, especially the automotive industry in Europe by 2027. It believes “half of new cars sold in Europe will be battery powered and the same will be true five years later in China, India and North America. This will contribute to an overall reduction in the transport sector’s share of global energy demand from 27% to 20% by 2050.”
“No silver bullet”
It adds: “There is no silver bullet and energy efficiency, renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS) must all be ramped up to combat climate change.
The reality is that in some countries renewables are being ramped down.
DNV GL serves both the renewables and oil & gas industries and the Energy Transition Outlook has become a leading impartial voice on the energy future.