Our German skeptic friend Snowfan here keeps us up to date on the latest ODEN “Ship of Fools” attempt to travel across an Arctic that is supposed to be ice-free by now.
The incentive to cross the Arctic passages in the summer is huge. Doing so would mean at least a week of fame with the media blaring out your name along with grossly hyped headlines of an Arctic ice meltdown due to global warming. One of these years, a ship might get lucky and manage to get through the Northwest Passages.
And the pressure to do so is enormous because over the last ten years Arctic ice volume has even rebounded slightly and if that trend continues, as some expect, the global warming alarmist may never get another chance to get through. Last year failed.
Mid-summer Arctic ice volume has grown modestly over the past 13 years, thus casting doubt Arctic is melting further. Chart: Kirye.
The latest “Ship of Fools” episode this year is an attempt by the above mentioned Swedish ice breaker ODEN, which hopes to get through. Unfortunately conditions so far this summer have not been as favorable as they hoped, Snowfan reports:
This year Arctic sea ice in the area of interest on July 14 is (unexpectedly) thicker than it was last year at the same time, and a heck of a lot more than what some climate models and Al Gore projected a bit more than 10 years ago:
In Lancaster Sound and the Barrow Strait (eastern access point to the NW-Passage) sea ice in mid July 2019 is up to 3 meters thick, i.e. 2 meters thicker than in mid-July 2018! Source: DMI Arctic Sea Ice Thickness. Image: here.
Also defying the models is the extent of ice cover for July 9 at the Baffin inlets Regent – Boothia. Over the last 50 years, there’s been little trend change:
Source: Canadian Ice Service
The latest on ODEN, according to CruiseMapper, is that it is currently well off course. Snowfan writes:
In the night of July 19, 2019, the Ship of Fools has deviated far from its planned route southeast of Coburg Island and is positioned this morning west of this island. We await with suspense to see if the climate fools will overcome the thick ice on July 20, 2019 and arrive on time in Pond Inlet.”