“Arctic Surprise…Sensational Study In Nature”: Large Part Of 20th Century Warming Attributed To CFCs!

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Arctic Surprise

By Professor Fritz Vahrenholt

A few days ago, an international research group from the USA, Canada and Switzerland led by Lorenzo Polvani of Columbia University (New York) published a sensational study in Nature climate change, which attributes a large part of the warming of the 20th century to CFCs (“Substantial twentieth-century Arctic warming caused by ozone-depleting substances“).

Using 10 climate models, the researchers calculated the global and Arctic temperature development, once with CFCs in the atmosphere and once without.

According to these models, from 1955 to 2005, global temperatures increase by 0.59 °C with CFCs and by 0.39 °C without CFCs. One third of the warming is therefore not caused by CO2 but by the CFCs.

If the remaining warming for CO2 is converted over the five decades, an average warming of 0.08 °C per decade remains. Not exactly a lot. CFCs have a 19000-23000 times stronger forcing than CO2.

Half of Arctic warming due to CFCs

In the Arctic, the CFCs had an even greater impact in the model calculations. As is well known, the warming there from 1955 to 2005 was greater than on a global scale, by 1.59 °C in the models. According to Polvani, without CFCs the increase would have been only 0.82°C, i.e. only half as much.

Half of Arctic melt due to CFCs

The same applies to sea ice. According to Polvani, half of the decrease in the area of Arctic sea ice in September (the smallest extent of Arctic sea ice in each case) is thus attributable to CFCs. The other way round: only a maximum of half of the warming and the decline of the sea ice can be attributed to CO2.

Authors asked to edit conclusion

The authors conclude that the decrease of CFCs in the air due to the prohibition of the substances will substantially defuse the warming and the decrease of ice in the future. It is interesting that these clear conclusions called mainstream scientists to the scene. Piers Forster of the University of Leeds and John Fyfe of the Canadian University of Victoria asked the authors to change the sentence in the conclusion from “CFCs produce 1/3 of global warming and half of Arctic climate change” to “CFCs are an important contribution to the global climate system, especially in the Arctic”.

The numbers remain, but the interpretation is clouded because it would cause too much sensation. That’s how climate science framing works today.

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21 responses to ““Arctic Surprise…Sensational Study In Nature”: Large Part Of 20th Century Warming Attributed To CFCs!”

  1. “Arctic Surprise…Sensational Study In Nature”: Large Part Of 20th Century Warming Attributed To CFCs! — NoTricksZone - Climate- Science.press

    […] über “Arctic Surprise…Sensational Study In Nature”: Large Part Of 20th Century Warming Attributed T… […]

  2. ‘Arctic Surprise…Sensational Study In Nature’: Large Part Of 20th Century Warming Attributed To Ozone-depleting substances — - Climate- Science.press

    […] https://notrickszone.com/2020/02/19/arctic-surprise-sensational-study-in-nature-large-part-of-20th-c… By Professor Fritz Vahrenholt A few days ago, an international research group from the USA, Canada and Switzerland led by Lorenzo Polvani of Columbia University (New York) published a sensational study in Nature climate change, which attributes a large part of the warming of the 20th century to CFCs (“Substantial twentieth-century Arctic warming caused… […]

  3. Scott

    Thats funny given o2 and Ozone are right in the middle peak of OLR so therefore more O3 should according to their theory block more OLR increasing warming.

    1. David Appell

      Scott: Ozone is well known to be a greenhouse gas. You should know that.

      1. Scott

        Lol David,

        your speed to replay is only surpassed by your lack of comprehension.

  4. Phil Salmon

    It’s more of the same bullshit.
    Climate changes by itself, it doesn’t need our help.
    Both CFCs and CO2 are irrelevant to climate.

    1. David Appell

      How does climate change “by itself?”

    2. David Appell

      Phil: Do you think CO2 doesn’t absorb infrared energy, or do you think the Earth doesn’t emit any?

      1. Edim

        David Appell, climate changes at all timescales (without our help) – it’s basic education. It’s not known exactly what factors cause the changes and it may remain unknown/uncertain for a very, very long time, and that’s OK. We should of course try to understand and study it. The main obstacle at the moment is the AGW paradigm paralysis.

        Do you think N2 and O2 don’t ‘absorb’ energy from the surface by direct contact and convection, or do you think CO2 doesn’t emit any (to space)?

  5. ColA

    It would be interesting to read exactly what ‘P. Forster and J. Fyfe actually said to warrant the ‘important clarification’.
    Be tempting to see what a FOI would turn up!

  6. Gerard

    Only to avoid saying that the changes are natural. CFCs are no more capable of increasing the temperature than CO2.

  7. John F. Hultquist

    Maybe I’m losing it.
    This seems to be the 5th or 6th thing that has caused 1/2 the warming.

    1. RoHa

      You can be pretty sure that each one of those 5 or 6 things has caused half the warming. Probably 2 or 3 of them have each caused all the warming.

  8. Petit_Barde

    Oh well … after decades of data tampering to match CO2 and global temperatures now they have to put it all again to match the CFC narrative … which should give an opposite trend because of the Montreal protocole …

    What a Monty Pythonian bunch of clowns.

  9. richard

    I see no summer warming in the arctic since 1958-

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    1. dennisambler

      Note that from 2017, “re-analysis” comes into play.

      https://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis

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    […] Read more at No Tricks Zone […]

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