Elsevier has accepted a new paper by Lüdecke et al, 2020, showing natural oceanic and solar cycles play a large role in modulating Europe’s climate. Offers new chances for robust midterm temperature prognoses.
The paper, in press, journal pre-proof, analyzes natural variability in European monthly temperatures on decadal and multidecadal timescales and their possible drivers.
NAO, AMO, sun behind temperature variability
The authors claim to have established characteristic correlations of temperature with ocean cycles, here NAO and AMO, and solar activity for many regions and seasons. This means it is likely that NAO, AMO and solar activity are the actual drivers of a lot of the temperature variability.
Figure 1 of the soon-to-be-published paper follows:
Image: Decadal and multidecadal natural variability in European temperature, Lüdecke et al, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (journal pre-proof).
The authors did NOT look at the anthropogenic component of the long term warming of the past 150 years and its attribution but feel the results will hopefully help to better attribute shorter-term temperature changes and their typical patterns.
Chance for midterm temperature prognoses
This is important because efforts by the scientific community are progressing to better predict NAO and AMO for months and a few years in advance, This opens up new chances for more robust mid term temperature prognoses that also includes natural climate variability which the paper documents.
The paper’s preliminary abstract (emphasis added):
The paper’s graphs show an oscillation of temperature that challenge the sharply rising GISS-like narrative for Europe.