We’re Not Gonna Drown! Analyses Show COASTAL SEA LEVEL RISE Is Only 1.69 mm Per Year!

UPDATE: Sea level rise near the coasts where people actually live is found to be 1.69 mm/yr. But when crunching the data for the entire ocean, as Willis Eschenbach has shown, a figure of just 1.52 mm/year is computed. 

Hot shot data analyst Zoe Phin at her site examines sea level rise.

There she notes, “Climate alarmists are worried that the sea level is rising too fast and flooding is coming soon. You can find many data images like this on the net:”

Lately the sea level has been rising 3.2 mm/year and some scientists say the rise is accelerating.

At her blog, Zoe points out that this is the rate measured by satellite for the entire ocean. She says what’s really important is the rate of rise along the coasts where it really matters for humans.

Examined data for grids adjacent to the coast

So she crunched the massive data volume for the surfaces near the coasts, downloading over a gigabyte of 720×361 gridded data covering 1950 to 2009.

She wrote: “I only examine those grid cells that are adjacent to land (2808 out of 259920).”

From her analysis she produced the following table and computed the rise for the seas near land.

Zoe’s result:

1.69 mm/year.

Thus the coastal trend is thus just half the total ocean trend claimed by scientists and the media.

Zoe’s findings agree nicely with tide gauges measurements, which also show sea level along the coasts rising only about half as quickly as the satellite altimetry suggests.

For example, in 2016 Dave Burton of SeaLevel.info site here found sea level rise measured by the world’s best long-term coastal tide gauges is just under +1.5 mm/yr (about 6 inches per century).”

But Willis Eschenbach here commented that he had downloaded the same file – but for the entire ocean – and found an average rise of 1.52 mm/year. So now the question begs: How are the scientists coming up with 3.2 mm/year?

Less than 1% of global tide gauges agree with IPCC 2100 projection

Not long ago NTZ contributor Kenneth Richard reported how less than 1% of the world’s 358 tide gauges were on track to meet IPCC’s 75 cm sea level rise by 2100.

US coastal sea level rise “slowing down”. 

Moreover, a recent study of 53 long-term tide gauges scattered on the US east and west coasts found that sea level rise has in fact slowed down.

In a nutshell: All the claims that we’re all going to drown seem to be flat out contradicted by data from along the coast.

16 responses to “We’re Not Gonna Drown! Analyses Show COASTAL SEA LEVEL RISE Is Only 1.69 mm Per Year!”

  1. Scott

    I also think Willis, identified that the sea level measurements changed trajectory at the point of the change over of the measuring satellite.

    So its difficult to identify a trend when you changed measuring device.

  2. Zoe Phin

    Yeah, I have to apologize for not checking the whole ocean in this dataset before checking the coasts. So Willis was right, except I got 1.56 mm/yr for the ocean (not shown). Oh well, it’s still very little.

    1. Kenneth Richard

      “I got 1.56 mm/yr for the ocean (not shown)”

      That’s the exact same rate of rise for 1900-2018 that Frederikse et. al. (2020) obtained. In Frederikse et al. (2018), the rate was 1.5 mm/yr for 1958-2014. So no net change in the last 60 years.

      An entire article about this here:


  3. Fenlander

    It’s clear what is happening. The middle of the oceans are rising at twice the rate of coastal areas. In time, I expect ships will need to use extra fuel to climb out of harbour, but will then be able to idle their engines and coast downhill into port. Once enough time has passed and the gradient increases sufficiently, I look forward to the emergence of new sports such as downhill water skiing.

  4. Chris Hanley

    The graph above is from Church & White 2005, they did a subsequent paper in 2011 in which the apparent ~1925 linear acceleration more or less disappears.
    Willis Eschenbach discusses the 2011 paper here:

  5. Scott

    Agree Pierre, plus you need to take into account land movement in either direction to be truly accurate.

    Where I live the land is subsiding at 1mm per year, making sea level rise approximately 0.7mm per year.

  6. Phil Salmon

    Coastline is the only place where sea level matters.

  7. pochas94

    I wonder how much sediment is deposited by rivers on the ocean floor each year. Would that not raise sea levels?

  8. Clyde

    I suspect the climastrologists are not accounting for satellite drift toward the planet (which would be interpreted as an increase in sea level), then they correct the satellite to the appropriate altitude and ‘adjust’ their data, rinse and repeat, such that we see a continually increasing trend.

    It’s not anything I can definitively prove, though… is there some way of poring through the data to determine if this is what’s happening? Given all the other tricks they’ve used (adjusting ARGO float temperature data to drag-bucket and ship-intake data, rather than the other way around being one good example, so they could claim ocean warming and thus thermal expansion), there’s very little reason to trust on its face anything they put out.

    1. Robert Folkerts

      Hi pochas94,
      I posed the exact same question some years ago. Only got replies rubbishing the idea. Funny thing is that logically it is irrefutable. Vast quantities of sediment flow continuously into the oceans and necessarily displace water. Only have to look at ponds I made on my farm. They slowly become shallower due to sediment. Another thought I had the other day was to wonder how much water all the world’s shipping displaces. While it is no doubt a lot, there is a large area to spread it around.🤣🤣 All this though can only produce a rise in water level, certainly not a reduction.

  9. Lasse
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