A new paper authored by distinguished climate researcher Nicola Scafetta and published in the journal Atmosphere titled Reconstruction of the Interannual to Millennial Scale Patterns of the Global Surface Temperature concludes that humans are only responsible for half, at most, of the recent warming.
The IPCC climate models fail to properly take natural oscillations into account.
Hat-tip Die kalte Sonne.
Dr. Scafetta, a research scientist at the University of Napoli Federico II, and formerly an adjunct assistant professor at Duke University, examined data and identified an array of internal climate system and external cycles to explain the ongoing discrepancy between IPCC models and the past climate.
Scafetta’s reconstruction since 1000 A.D. yielded a curve that fit extremely well to that of the 2005 Moberg reconstruction and the modern HadCRUT 4.2 dataset:
Once the natural and the anthropogenic components were accounted for, it could be determined how much each impacted the climate. Scafetta’s result, highlighted in yellow:
Scafetta’s 1.5°C climate sensitivity for doubling of CO2 is only about half of the IPCC’s expected average of 3°C.
Scafetta told Die kalte Sonne (12:00) that the IPCC models fail to properly reproduce the preindustrial time back to 1000 A.D. The problem, Scafetta explains, is that the IPCC models don’t properly take solar activity into account and thus do not correctly reproduce the Medieval Warm Period.
“An illusions”…”not able to reproduce natural variability”
Scafetta calls the IPCC models fitting the data of the modern warm period “just an illusion”.
The former ACRIM Lab group scientist concludes:
These results clearly show that the climate models are not correct because the natural variability they are not able to reproduce. At least 50% of the warming from 1900 to now, to 2020, should be considered natural, produced by natural cycles.”
Using his model, which accounts for natural oscillations, Scafetta foresees no warming until 2030, possibly 2040.
The paper’s abstract: