Global Surface Cooling Expected To Continue…Forecasters See Another La Nina In The Pipeline

Not long ago Dr. Roy Spencer published Version 6 University of Alabama-Huntsville satellite-based global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2021. It was -0.01 deg. C, down an impressive  0.7°C since the peak in early 2016.

As Dr. Spencer’s chart above shows, temperatures are back within the range seen 20 years ago. The question many of us have is what are global mean surface temperatures going to do over the coming year or so?

We know that the mean global temperature is driven in large part by the oceanic surface temperature cycles, especially the ENSO.

Two years of below neutral Nino 3.4 SST

Forecasting the ENSO can thus help us project what the global mean surface temperature will be like a year ahead. Normally there’s a lag of about 8 months.

Looking at the latest NCEP CFSv2 ENSO 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies and the ensemble mean forecast:

Late last year the equatorial Pacific was cooler than normal – meaning a globe cooling a La Nina. Now some 8 months later, global surface temperatures have cooled down.

Another La Nina is forecast

Today the NINO 3.4 is back to neutral, and so we can expect global surface temperature to rise once again by a few tenths of a degree Celsius. But then things are expected to cool off once more as another La Nina is projected take hold by autumn. So once again we should see temperatures dropping again at about this time next year if the ensemble forecast turns out to be correct. If that happens we’ll be able to say with some certainty the global warming hiatus is back.

Solar link

Note that one recent study found a link between solar activity and the ENSO, e.g. Leamon et al 2021. Right now a number of scientists are expecting a period of low solar activity to persist until 2050.

Read more here.

Not looking good for the global warming doomsday activists.

4 responses to “Global Surface Cooling Expected To Continue…Forecasters See Another La Nina In The Pipeline”

  1. Očekává se, že globální ochlazování povrchu bude pokračovat. Předpovědi vidí přicházet další La Nina -
  2. drumphish

    If you want real global warming, you need heat from the sun every day.

    A warm earth is far better, the best for everything.

    The beginning of June was hot and dry with high temp records broken. It was sayonara for a lot crops while others were looking at least good.

    The first two weeks of June saw high numbers of livestock, cattle, being sold at livestock auctions. No water and no pasture, too high of temps means animals will suffer, you have to sell.

    The total precipitation in the form of rain is 5 inches, maybe another quarter of an inch. All in June, very little moisture during April and May.

    For so little moisture and too much hot weather, canola and small grain crops look surprisingly good, not all though. Roots do seek water in the soil, the roots go deeper, geotropism at work.

    Soybeans have been slow but are filling in to larger leaf structure. Some fields are shot, maybe some areas in a field might be combined, other spots are bare.

    The corn is spotty, some fields don’t look too bad and are going to make it if it rains more.

    The weather has settled down, not as hot, had more than an inch of rain three days ago, otherwise, it was constant watering in the garden to save what you can.

    The amount of new rain will maintain the growth, relieve the stress on crops. It was a dire situation and still is in some other land areas. It is crop failure, a disaster, out there in places. For some crops, the stand is not more than six or seven inches tall and is heading out. Might make ten bushel, maybe not that.

    The USDA crop report told the story.

    An inch of rain totals more than 27,000 gallons of water on one acre of land, it’ll have good moisture content for a good while after that.

    Everything will grow, still not out of the woods and definitely need more rain now.

    Today’s high temp maybe made it to 75 degrees, the wind was from the north and cooled you down some. The bare ground still gets plenty warm. 80 degrees is better and you notice the difference.

    It is summer out there, the time to grow crops, you need warmer weather so crops have optimal growth. Rain is in short supply this year, plenty more has to get here. Sunlight for 14 plus hours a day helps even more.

    You also need an adequate supply of carbon dioxide if you want decent plant growth.

    Last winter’s weather and temps, this spring’s weather and temps, seems as though it is a la niña year in the works already.

  3. Ian

    “Not looking good for the global warming doomsday activists.”

    They may have to wait for the next el nino.

  4. Alex

    Climate and weather are cyclic. The spinning moon rotates around our planet which rotates on itself daily and around the sun yearly. We are surrounded by planets rotating around the sun, and the sun in turn rotates around a galaxy of gases, dust, stars and solar systems while spinning on itself. The sun has several cycles of its own, ranging from around 12 years to a thousand years. All these dynamics have an impact on our planet’s climate,

    But a few parts per million of CO2 molecules in our atmosphere are gonna fry the Earth. Not.

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