Global Warming Is Actually Sparing Lives …Cold Kills 17 Times More Than Heat, According To Lancet!

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Swiss journalist Alex Reichmuth reports on research that finds many more people die from cold than from heat.

“That’s why global warming may actually be saving lives, on the balance.”

Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne.

One recent study by environmental epidemiologist Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera from the University of Bern and Antonio Gasparrini from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine in the scientific journal “Nature Climate Change” attributed 37% of the heat-related deaths to man-made global warming.

“We expect the proportion of heat-related deaths to continue to grow if we don’t do something about climate change or adapt,” lead author Vicedo-Cabrera claimed.

Many more die from cold

But what is usually overlooked is that cold claims many lives, writes Reichmuth.  “In winter, for example, there are always reports of frostbite victims. […] People who freeze to death because of cold are literally just the tip of the iceberg, however. […] In terms of numbers, people who die from the indirect consequences of cold temperatures are much more significant.”

Here, Reichmuth cites researcher Roland Rau at the Institute of Sociology and Demography at the University of Rostock in Germany, He told German n-tv television: “When it’s cold, the risk of both respiratory infections and cardiovascular disease increases. You have a 50 percent higher risk of dying from a respiratory disease in winter than in summer.”

Influenza is one example:

 

Mortality is highest in wintertime; cold is the real killer. Summer provides a welcome break. Source: SAS blog

Winter 15-20% more fatal

Cold also causes the blood vessels to constrict which can lead  to an increase in fatal thromboses and heart attacks. That’s why winter is “the real killer,” Rau said. “The highest mortality is measured every year in January, February and March. My own research has shown that mortality rates are 15 to 20 percent higher in those months than in the summer.”

Reichmuth also cites a study appearing in Lancet in 2015, which tallied the number of cold deaths versus heat deaths: “Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study by Antonio Gasparrini et al.

According to this Lancet study: “Cold caused 17 times more deaths than heat in the 13 countries studied.” That means cold was responsible for only 7.29 percent of all deaths.

If planet warms, net temperature-related deaths will decrease

Reichmuth summarizes:

If there are many more cold deaths than heat deaths, it is reasonable to expect that as the earth continues to warm, the number of cold deaths will decrease more than the number of heat deaths will increase. Thus the net effect of climate change would be positive.

Researchers found what’s odd is that most deaths don’t occur where it’s extremely hot or cold, like Canada or Sweden, but rather winter mortality is higher in places where people just aren’t familiar with it and so “there is little preparation for temperature extremes.”

German scientists Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning came to the same conclusion in their book “Unerwünschte Wahrheiten – was Sie über den Klimawandel wissen sollten” (Unwanted Truths – What You Should Know About Climate Change).




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11 responses to “Global Warming Is Actually Sparing Lives …Cold Kills 17 Times More Than Heat, According To Lancet!”

  1. Kurt in Switzerland

    Hi Pierre –
    You should not only mention that [extreme] cold has been responsible for 7.29 % of deaths.
    You need to mention that [extreme] heat has been responsible for less than half a percent (0.42%).

  2. Luigi

    global warming?
    it’s been cloudy most of the days in June and July until now and the average sommer temperatures have fallen 3-4°C in my town. despite the wild building activity due to which most 1 family houses have been replaced by condos eliminating the gardens and green areas have disappeared, We’ve not seen yet a day above 31°C, while average max temp. is 26°C.
    During El Nino (in 2018 and 2019) we had 34°C which was not yet the record breaking (which occurred on 27.07.1982 37,5°C when CO2 was at 330ppm).

    So again: which GW are you talking about?

  3. John, Uk

    “Reichmuth also cites a study appearing in Lancet in 2015, which tallied the number of cold deaths versus heat deaths: “Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study by Antonio Gasparrini et al.

    According to this Lancet study: “Cold caused 17 times more deaths than heat in the 13 countries studied.” That means cold was responsible for only 7.29 percent of all deaths.”

    I suspect that should read

    “That means cold was responsible for only 7.29 percent of all deaths examined by this study”

  4. ALLAN MACRAE

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/17/alarm-about-alarmism/#comment-2104459

    Joe d’Aleo and I had written a paper on Excess Winter Mortality based on other evidence when the major Lancet study was published, so we revised our paper to include that excellent study. Our summary reads:

    “Cold weather kills. Throughout history and in modern times, many more people succumb to cold exposure than to hot weather, as evidenced in a wide range of cold and warm climates.

    Evidence is provided from a study of 74 million deaths in thirteen cold and warm countries including Thailand and Brazil, and studies of the United Kingdom, Europe, the USA, Australia and Canada.

    Contrary to popular belief, Earth is colder-than-optimum for human survival. A warmer world, such as was experienced during the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, is expected to lower winter deaths and a colder world like the Little Ice Age will increase winter mortality, absent adaptive measures.

    These conclusions have been known for many decades, based on national mortality statistics.”

    COLD WEATHER KILLS 20 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS HOT WEATHER September 4, 2015
    by Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae
    https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
    ____________________

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/23/the-evils-of-climate-enthusiasm/#comment-2164819
    [excerpts]

    The elderly and the poor in the United Kingdom, Germany and other countries are suffering increased winter deaths due to high energy costs. In the UK, this human disaster is called “Heat or Eat”.

    The Excess Winter Mortality Rate in Britain is much higher than that in Canada. Canada has a population of about 35 million and the UK about 65 million, but Excess Winter Mortality in Canada is about 5000 to 10,000 per year, and in the UK it is 25,000 to 50,000 per year.

    Canada and the UK have genetically similar populations and similar health care systems. Canada tends to be colder but mostly drier than the UK. However, Canada generally has much lower energy costs and better-insulated housing and probably better central heating systems, on average. This suggests that adaptation to winter and low energy costs are significant drivers of lower Winter Mortality rates.

    Imagine IF the UK had competent politicians in the past several decades instead of warmist imbeciles. Instead of spending billions on green energy debacles, they could have spent the funds on improving home insulation and central heating, and encouraged fracking of shales to reduce natural gas prices, and a whole lot of grannies and grandpa’s would still be alive for their grandchildren.

    Cheap, abundant, reliable energy is the lifeblood of society – it IS that simple.

    When politicians fool with energy systems, real people suffer and die.

    Regards, Allan

    1. John F Hultquist

      Thanks Allan, for your informative comments.
      John

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  6. John F Hultquist

    “deaths to continue to grow if we don’t do something about climate change or adapt, ”

    Key word here is “adapt”, and because warming or cooling is mighty slow the issue of climate change is irrelevant.

    Communities and neighbors need to be aware of and make provisions for those not physically or mentally able to protect themselves from cold or heat.

    Thinking of this as a climate change issue is bull crap.

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  9. Yonason

    This is why I get upset with skeptics who wish for cold to prove that CO2 doesn’t cause warming. There has to be a better way to expose warmist fraud to the masses, than for winter deaths to increase. It may happen, but it isn’t something we should be hoping for.

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