Weather Simulations Leading To Über-Hype. And: Germany’s Disaster Management Is In Disastrous State

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On weather catastrophes: “Those who do not want to face these central questions because they fear personal or political consequences or want to manage their own ideological agenda cling to the fairy tale of global warming being solely responsible.” – Sven Titz, NZZ

The pitfalls of weather models

By Die kalte Sonne
(Translated, edited by P. Gosselin)

Journalist Sven Titz looks into weather models in the Swiss NZZ daily. The reason was the GFS model, which predicted 45 degrees Celsius for Germany in early July.

Recently, predictions of extreme heat were making the rounds in Europe. Not only in Spain and the south of France – no, also in Switzerland and Germany one would have to expect temperatures around 40 degrees Celsius in the middle of July, maybe even above, some media said.

It will probably not be that hot in Central Europe after all. The 40 degrees will not be reached for the time being. However, this is not really an incorrect forecast. Rather, it has been lost in some announcements of the great heat how uncertain forecasts are – especially those that refer to a period that lies a week and more in the future. In addition, some statements were based on model simulations that were improperly interpreted.

With regard to the heat in Germany, one could almost speak of hype, says Marco Stoll of Meteo Schweiz. According to him, the first gush of hot air from Spain, which will cause a temperature maximum in Switzerland and southern Germany today, Thursday, will then be pushed away again by maritime air. Northern Germany is expected to be spared from this first heat wave, he said.”

We had this topic already in this blog and there especially the explanations of Kachelmannwetter to the GFS model. It was mainly explained the issue of soil moisture, which was apparently completely wrong in the model and led to the high temperature predictions.

One of the meteorologists who warned about the 45 degrees Celsius at the beginning of July was Karsten Schwanke from ARD.

He has a track record of his own when it comes to forecasting. A YouTube video shows once again the weather report of 14 July 2021 in the German Tagesthemen news show. It was on the evening of the 2021 flood disaster in the Ahr valley. At around 10:44 pm on that day, Mr. Schwanke gave the all-clear, the worst was over.

The WDR’s elaborate website on the subject lists a chronology of events and the worst was by no means over at that point. So whoever relied on Schwanke’s statement was pretty much abandoned.

Keyword Ahrtal flood. Alexander Kissler comments in the NZZ and gives the German disaster control a bad marks. In his opinion, it failed during the flood.

There had been ‘gaps in the warning chain of command,” a whitewashing press release from Spiegel’s ministry, and the wrong tone throughout: ‘None of the warnings, whether from weather or flood authorities, local districts, or those in the news, conveyed a sense of urgency or immediate danger to life that would have been indicated in retrospect.’

That’s another reason why the focus on climate change ‘unduly narrows the view to just one of many aspects.’ And in helping victims, politicians promised unbureaucratic support and delivered the opposite, ‘many, if not all, processes were perceived as complicated, non-transparent and very bureaucratic.’

The flood became a catastrophe because Germany’s disaster management system is in a disastrous state. In Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia, outdated technology, unclear responsibilities and wrong political decisions contributed more to the deaths and injuries than climate change. Those who do not want to face these central questions because they fear personal or political consequences or want to manage their own ideological agenda cling to the fairy tale of global warming being solely responsible. Future catastrophes are precisely not prevented in this way.”




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4 responses to “Weather Simulations Leading To Über-Hype. And: Germany’s Disaster Management Is In Disastrous State”

  1. Richard Greene

    At least with weather models you just have to wait a few days to see if they were correct — not a few decades

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