Marshall Islands Growing, Not Shrinking. World Bank’s Embarrassing Error In Alarmist 2021 Report

Doom and gloom warnings by a 2021 World Bank report neglected a major mechanism: coral reefs.  

Edge of vegetation lines from selected islands on Rongerik, Ujae, Mejit and Wotho Atolls. Figure 6, Ford et al 2015

Last October, just before Glasgow Climate Conference, the World Bank issued a report with a dire warning for the Marshall Islands. It claimed: “Rising sea levels in the atoll nation of Marshall Islands are projected to endanger 40 percent of existing buildings in the capital, Majuro, with 96 percent of the city at risk of frequent flooding induced by climate change.”

The startling claims were based on “new visual models” and that the rising sea levels were due to co2-induced warming.

But now we learn that the model inputs were garbage, and so the model outputs were garbage as well. Nothing of the sort is going to happen to the Marshall Islands anytime soon.

Analysis shows 4% growth from 1945 to 2010!

German climate site Die kalte Sonne here took a closer look at the dramatic claims and found the World Bank report had a grave error: they failed to account for the role that coral reefs play in island building.

A 2015 paper published by Ford et al indeed found that the opposite is happening: the islands are expanding and not sinking and shrinking. The paper’s abstract:

Using historic aerial photographs and recent high-resolution satellite imagery, shoreline changes on six atolls and two mid-ocean reef islands in the Republic of the Marshall Islands were analysed. Results reveal that since the middle of the 20th century more shoreline has accreted than eroded, with 17.23% showing erosion, compared to 39.74% accretion and 43.03% showing no change.”

Taken as a whole, the authors found a net result:

The net result of these changes was the growth of the islands examined from 9.09 km2 to 9.46 km2 between World War Two (WWII) and 2010.”

Die kalte Sonne called the findings “surprising”, and noted that the World Bank report made a serious mistake by neglecting the phenomenon that the islands are made of corals that grow along with sea level rise. When asked why the models ignored this critical factor, no reply was given.





24 responses to “Marshall Islands Growing, Not Shrinking. World Bank’s Embarrassing Error In Alarmist 2021 Report”

  1. Curious George

    Who finances the World Bank? Is it a progressive institution?

  2. RoHa

    It should be no surprise that the islands are growing. The world is rapidly heating up due to catastrophic Man Made Global Warming. (Which is all your fault.) And when things heat up, they expand.

    1. Graeme Stewart

      They are United Nations affiliated. They funded in 2019 the creation of the GPMB ~(Global Pandemic Management Board), the mouthpiece of the WHO, who told us in September 2019 that the UN & WHO, specifically, will be conducting a Bio-Weapons drill. “The United Nations (including WHO) conducts at least two system-wide training and simulation exercises, including one for covering the deliberate release of a lethal respiratory pathogen.”:
      — ‘A World at Risk’. pp10
      https://www.gpmb.org/annual-reports/overview/item/2019-a-world-at-risk

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  14. richard

    A lot of problems regarding these Islands was coral mining and beach mining. The erosion of beaches from mining for sand continues today around the world.

    1. richard

      “Coastal erosion, which is both a result of natural processes and human activities, has been identified as one of the most serious consequences of beach mining, reef blasting and nearshore dredging. This problem is not unique to Majuro, and is common around the Pacific. Majuro is particularly vulnerable to coastal erosion given its small size, high level of economic development and high population density resulting in a large amount of infrastructure being located along its coasts”

      https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265066052_Economic_assessment_of_the_true_costs_of_aggregate_mining_in_Majuro_Atoll_Republic_of_the_Marshall_Islands

    2. ty

      these dont have sand

      1. richard
    3. Donald Kasper

      Sand is quartz. The Marshall Islands beaches are carbonate. No one mines it for sand, and in concrete carbonate causes concrete failure called ASR. Some road or foundation fill would be the only use.

      1. Sebastian Lüning

        No, there is also “carbonate sand”. Sand only refers to the grain size of a sediment, not the material.

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  17. Donald Kasper

    The corals grow from the existence of sea water. It does not require sea level rise.

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