Joe Bastardi: “Future Shock…Brutal Winters Ahead from 2013 On…Now Into A Major La Nina”

That’s what Joe says in his latest video. The PDO is now going into its cold phase and the current La Nina is going to be a bear – and quite possibly a polar bear at that.

The Pacific, the primary global climate driver, has been in its warm cycle since the late 1970s, and that’s coming to an end. That period was dominated by El Ninos, which kept the planet on the warm side. But now the Pacific has flipped and we’re now entering a cool phase, where La Ninas are expected to dominate.

I disagree with Joe when he says the brutal winters are going to start in 2013. In my view they’ve already started! So If Joe thinks the last couple winters have been mild, I sure hate to see what “brutal” is going to look like!

Joe thinks that brutal winters follow deep La Ninas. And because he thinks the next 2 years will be dominated by a major La Nina, then cold winters are expected to strike beginning in 2012-2013.

He’s getting bold with his predictions. But if he winds up being right, then the AGW theorists and their half-baked models are history. Joe says in the video:

Here we go. We spike this up. And now we’re into a major La Nina that’s going to last for the next couple of years. When we come out of that, there’s really good reason to believe the winter of 2012-13, and perhaps beyond, is going to be quite cold.

Then there are the wild cards, says Joe: solar activity and volcanoes, which impact the ENSO. Joe also mentions how the current La Nina has so far come on faster and harder than anything he can remember. You can see what he means looking at the following graphic:

Comparing this La Nina to the last one, this one is in a big hurry, and is shaping up to be a deep one. That all of this is occurring during a very slow solar cycle may be just a coincidence, but enough scientists are out there yelling “heads up!”

I myself am buying extra long-johns this fall for the months and years ahead. Last year’s pairs are already worn out.

32 thoughts on “Joe Bastardi: “Future Shock…Brutal Winters Ahead from 2013 On…Now Into A Major La Nina””

  1. Joe’s got the best track record for Europe that I’ve seen on long range forecasts. It will be very interesting to see if this winter continues his run of good predictions.

    To add to Europe’s winter woes, there was a recent report that reluctantly linked our winter temperatures to sunspot activity.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8615789.stm

    “The UK and continental Europe could be gripped by more frequent cold winters in the future as a result of low solar activity, say researchers.

    They identified a link between fewer sunspots and atmospheric conditions that “block” warm, westerly winds reaching Europe during winter months.

    But they added that the phenomenon only affected a limited region and would not alter the overall global warming trend.

    The findings appear in the journal Environmental Research Letters.”

    cont.

    1. And if European winters get cold, all the climate change crap and renewable energy will be tough selling. Why is it that even Obama is no longer intersted in green energies? I’d speculate and say it’s because there’s not a study out there that show’s it’s feasible. It’s economic suicide. Germany, for example, is only doing it with the hopes of getting some sort of moral high ground out of it. That’s all.

      1. I’ve got the feeling that the computer models are telling them something’s up. Quite a few UK initiatives are being cancelled or scaled back (ok that could be because we’re big time broke) and messages are more about precaution than certainty.

        I’m not sure if it’s the ocean cooling that’s got them worried. The slower sea level rise. The sun. Or how the planet reacted to the sun’s minimum. I think they learnt stuff they’d never considered before. Maybe it’s just the much slower real world warming that contradicts the projections?

        It might be interesting to see who backs away from AGW drama first. We might see some more enquiries or even leaks from key departments. MPs feigning shock at having been mislead by scientists?

        Perhaps Obama turning solar panels down for the White House roof is a first step? Though I suspect it has more to do with practical reasons.

        As for moral highround the Brits are experts at ‘gold plating’ or upgrading already arduous EU directives to the point where we can’t complete projects on time or on budget. Grrr.

      2. “Germany, for example, is only doing it with the hopes of getting some sort of moral high ground out of it. That’s all.”

        Hmm. Do not underestimate the fact that a huge portion of the population honestly believes the Malthusian’s song. They never heard of Malthus; he’s not known in Germany, but Germany is traditionally guilt-ridden (caused by the Nazi atrocities); so Malthusian preachers find easy prey here.

        Feeling guilty of environmental destruction is the easiest and most comfortable way to express your guilt; so that’s what Germans do. It’s also pretty cheap; it only drives up the cost of electricity by about 10%.

        It’s a psychological compensation mechanism. Most Germans are as programmed as cult members when it comes to these ecology questions and not capable of rational discussion. We believe in solar and wind power like the Japanese believe in a spirit world. 😉

        1. Oh, and while what i say might look like an overgeneralization, please consider that the Greens have a 20% approval rating ATM; many engineers, officials and teachers amongst the approvers. In the German “intellegentsia”, it’s still en vogue to be Green/Lovelockian.

  2. Another cold winter in Britain will be the third in a row, (and not long to wait)…….that’s climate in my book (though some clowns have blamed the recent very cold winter on would you believe it……Climate Change [aka AGW]).

    The German’s ( the German public) and even Angela, according to PG are already steaming away from the CAGW cr*p, another cold winter will be (hopefully the stake through the alarmist’s vampires heart) maybe put this scam scare to bed.

    I have bought new boots, Berghaus Winter Jacket and ski wear ( I don’t ski but it sure is warm clothing!), even if the coming winter is not as cold as last year, I think it will be snowy and this time in Britain it will hang around.
    I can recall (just!) – the 62/3 winter, and my father can recall the winters of the 40s and particularly 1947 which was a beast (wasn’t around for that one!).

    The horror is, Britain is a maritime climate, the public are not used to snow and the authorities are not equipped to cope with serious snow, we shall see.
    Me? well snow is a great thing for kids and youngsters, not so much for old uns but with good gear, at least one can get around safely – albeit with extreme care.

    I think Joe (Bastardi) is right, I very much respect his skills and views…….as I say we now do not have long to wait….soon, winters harbingers will be riding like Valkyries over the land and Jack Frost will be coming a knockin’!
    Brrr!

    1. This winter it will be my old Bundeswehr Parka and old Doc Martens (still British-made!) again. I’m expecting heavy snow; a repeat of the last winter or worse. And i’m long on rock salt 😉

      1. Joe’s normally right, but longterm weather forecasting is tricky. I wouldn’t bet the house that it’ll be a cold hard winter here in western Europe, though the chances that it will are pretty good.
        Focus has just published a piece saying a LIA can be ruled out. It pretty much says GHG will prevent it. Much of the piece appears to be crap. I’ll read it more closely tomorrow. http://www.focus.de/wissen/wissenschaft/astronomie/tid-19795/astronomie-keine-neue-kleine-eiszeit_aid_550206.html
        (Note what Joe says in the video about solar activity so far in this cycle and compare it to the Focus description).

        1. For more than half a year now i mention the prolonged solar minimum in passing in conversations, and people always stare back blankly. Oh behold the speed of our professional print media! Probably they needed to do a thorough investigation first to find out if it was only an internet rumour…

          1. Dirk,
            looking at the sunspots right now and the sunspot tracking graph (see climatic indicators in the sidebar) I really wonder if that FOCUS editor has a clue. Any reader believing the FOCUS crap certainly has no clue. Clearly the cycle is weak.
            This FOCUS editor must be quite dim. If he had a brain in his head, he’d play up the quiet sun. Then he could say that the warm year is proof that the sun is not the driver. But instead he unwittingly admits that the sun is a big driver.
            Could be something to write about tomorrow.

          2. I didn’t even try to follow their twisted logic. They didn’t mention latency; so maybe they expect that every change in the sun must have immediate effects on Earth; like a kid who can’t wait to get his sweets. Ironically, their own publication obviously has a latency of about six months with regards to the blogosphere. Can we deduce that the FOCUS is a giant information buffer, so it needs to be bombarded with the same information for six months to show a reaction? 😉

  3. For a bit more here is what Joe Bastardi posted in a blog comment couple days ago:

    “The forecast” from this meteorologist remains unchanged, by 2030, BY OBJECTIVE SATELLITE TEMPS that we started using at the end of the last cold PDO, the earths temps will return to where they were in the late 70s. This should fold the whole house of cards, though I suspect it wont… the argument being of course that it should have been colder.

    Interesting that he took the time to post this, also interesting that he reads blogs. Must never sleep!

  4. It is good to have him say it also.

    A Russian scientist came out and said it 5 years ago.

    Other American scientists have said it such as Joseph D’Aleo and Farmer’s Almanac.

    The more that said it may wake up our governments.

    The US NOAA and EPA still believe in man-made global warming.

    The Brits and Irish have already seen an increase in elderly deaths due to winter.

    Paul

  5. Manmade global warming is causing the Earth to warm up over decades.

    This is a La Nina which will cool the Earth for about 2 years max. Due to the warming trend this La Nina, even if it gets real deep will not reach temperatures of the 1980s. After that we will probably have another El Nino, and so on.

    The cold winter in Europe was not due to La Nina but the arctic oscillation. The effect this had was to redistribute heat away from europe. We got southern europe much warmer than normal and western europe much colder. In the US it was colder than normal but Canada was warmer than normal. Overall the globe wasn’t as cold as standing in London would make you think.

    Solar irradiance will rise over the next few years, so whereas before it negated ghg warming, it will now be contributing to it. As such I expect we are going through a step change upward in global temperature. This will become apparent when we leave the coming La Nina and see where temperatures at then.

    surface temperature trend:
    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1980

    lower troposphere temperature trend:
    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah

    1. “Manmade global warming is causing the Earth to warm up over decades.”
      If that is so, then why was the trend from 1910 to 1940 exactly the same as from 1980 to 2010?

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1980/trend

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1910/to:1940/trend

      With a smaller negative trend in between, from 1940 to 1980:

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1940/to:1980/trend

      while CO2 was rising monotonously from 1960 onwards:

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1910/to:2010

      Was global warming hiding for 40 years? Where did it hide?

        1. Very good! So let’s recapitulate:
          Early 20th century warming: Low volcanic activity, increasing solar activity.
          Mid century cooling: Increase in volcanoes, aerosol emittance by industry.
          Late century warming: Increase in CO2.

          You people really make it up as you go along. Thanks for the links; for the life of me, i will never be able to learn the entire fairytale by heart.

      1. Thanks DirkH,
        Good and valid arguments.
        I can’t tell you how much I appreciate good and valid arguments.

    2. “Solar irradiance will rise over the next few years, so whereas before it negated ghg warming, it will now be contributing to it. As such I expect we are going through a step change upward in global temperature. This will become apparent when we leave the coming La Nina and see where temperatures at then.”

      Sorry – but have you actually looked at the solar data? Cycle 24 is going to be very small – possible Dalton level. Given that any solar forcing upwards is going to be slight – indeed it may be that as we near maximum around 2013-2014, the solar impact is one of less cooling rather than warming.

      I suspect this coming La Nina is going to introduce a step down in temperatures (the reverse of the El Ninos in the 80s and 90s). In the UK (regional admittedly – but at least the station data in the CET zone should be relativel reliable), we have already seen a step down in our temperatures following the 2007/2008 La Nina – the next step down here is likely to be a bigger one.

      The other part of the NAO blocking we’ve seen over the last 2 years that ought to be looked at – is what impact will it have on the North Atlantic current? A negatgive NAO forces winds South down between Scotland and Iceland – the direct opposite of where the Norwegian branch of the NAD normally flows. The question I’m wondering is this – if you have a sustained negative NAO, surely this will reduce the Norwegian flow of the current and deflect its energy towards Southern Greenland (re-enforcing the negative NAO signature to some degree)? If this is correct then a sustained negative NAO will have global rather than regional temperature effects.

      Looking at the recent data – http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-0-small-rundate=20100912
      it’s possible this effect may already be underway as there’s been a distinct lack of current between Scotland/Iceland for quite a few weeks now.

    3. Let me get this straight. We’re experiencing runaway Global Warming because the atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased from about 3 molecules per 10,000 (300PPM) in the 1850’s to about 4 molecules per 10,000 (400 PPM) today. Is that correct?

      1. Not all CO2 molecules are equal. The ones that join in later have very little influence. Consider them as the 3rd coat of white paint on the wall. Eventually, the wall just doesn’t look whiter. It’s the same with new CO2 molecules and the warming effect. But, they do make the planet much greener!

  6. Joe Bastari and Joseph D’Aleo are my favorite meteorologists.

    Here is the 2010/2011 winter forecast from Joseph D’Aleo:
    http://icecap.us/images/uploads/WINTER_201011.pdf

    Those among you who are still “believers of man made global warming” and believe the current solar minimum is temporary, (cthulhu
    11. September 2010 at 13:04) I have a two short questions.

    1: Please provide me the emperical evidence that man made global warming exists!

    2. Why do you believe Solar Cycle 24 will ramp up soon and why do you believe Solar Cycle 25 will perform any better than solar cycle 24?

    All solar scientists that I know have clearly stated that SC 24 at it’s current level is all we will get.

    Solar cycle 25 will be worse.

    This means we are heading for a Dalton Minimum with more than brutal winters from 2012/13.

    I predict you will become a proud skeptic as by 2013 AGW/Climate Change will be as dead as dead can be.

    You better wake up to the true objectives behind the AGW scam unless you believe your insight are superior to those of President Vaclav Klaus who thinks our freedom is more threatened than our climate:
    http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/09/klaus-i-am-increasingly-convinced-that.html

    Anyhow, until now no “believer” I met has been able to deliver any empirical evidence of man made global warming but you could be the first.

    I provide you with the benefit of the doubt because I think you are half a believer, otherwise you would have rejected the influence of the sun on our climate, a step that hardcore warmists are not willing to make.

  7. P.s. D’Aleo predicts a very cold winter for Western Europe this season.
    Have a look at the maps in his PDF File.

  8. Heh, hold on.. this video has to do with US winters. Seems like alot of the response is from Europe and while I really appreciate the kind words, I have not yet put out a Euro winter forecast this year. So the video is for the US as far as the set of winters I am talking about here.

    Last year, the forecast for the cold winter, was Europe and the US with a global spike in temp. The twisters of truth out there went after me cause of the very global spike I thought was coming, portraying the US and Euro forecast as being the global one. So in the interest of clarity. I think the US has a warm winter in the very areas that suffered last year. The widespread cold talked about here, similar to the late 70s, start in 12-13. But for my Euro friends, as soon as the hurricane burst ends, I will come forth with a focused idea. You dont deserve a half way forecast and I want to give you my best, okay?

    Cheers

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  10. Wonderful blog! I definitely love how it’s easy on my eyes and also the data are well written. I am wondering how I might be notified whenever a new post has been made. I have subscribed to your rss feed which need to do the trick! Have a nice day!

  11. Does anyone have the latest status of the Landscheidt Grand Minimum generating this extended La Nina weather? Can we expect next winter’s severe weather anomalies to be as bad or even worse? How might it affect spring’s planting and summer’s crop production? The answers to these questions will go a long way toward helping us know where food prices are headed later this year. They’re already not looking good.

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