Leading International Geologist Peter Ziegler: “Sun Is Driving Climate, Not CO2.”

Dr. Hans Labohm writes at the Dutch Standaard that one of the world’s leading geologists, Peter Ziegler of Switzerland, recently made a presentation on the factors driving climate. It’s not CO2, he said.

Ziegler-Ziegler family archive

 Peter Ziegler. Photo from Ziegler family archives. GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later version.

Labohm writes at the Dutch Standaard blog here that Arthur Rörsch and Peter Ziegler have been busy lately with the editors of a special issue of Energy & Environment, where a number of prominent climate skeptics are sharing their views on the factors that determine climate. This publication will be communicated to the members of the UN climate panel (IPCC) in due course.

Labohm then writes that Peter Ziegler has also recently completed a presentation based on peer-reviewed literature and current measurements, where he shows that the sun is mainly driving climate change, and not CO2.

The main points of the presentation, Labohm writes:

● Climate changed in response to natural processes that are active also at present, including variations in solar activity and the galactic cosmic ray [GCR] flux and ocean current oscillations.

● Changes in solar activity and temperature correlate closely.

● The temperature changes and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations of the last 33 years are at odds with the rapid Global Warming Concept of IPCC.

● Temperature forces atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and not vice-versa.

● During industrial Global Warming, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, anthropogenic emissions and temperature do not correlate.

● Early Global Warming coincided with a slight increase in CO2 emissions, while Global Cooling was paralleled by a dramatic increase in CO2 emissions from 4.0 Gt/yr in 1942 to 20.0 Gt/yr in 1975.

● During the negative PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] of 1942 to 1977 the World cooled, CO2 emissions increased 5-fold while atmospheric CO2 concentration accelerated sharply.

● During the positive PDO of 1977 to 2000 temperatures, CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 concentrations rose rapidly.

● Early Global Warming coincided with a slight increase in CO2 emissions, while Global Cooling was paralleled by a dramatic increase in CO2 emissions from 4.0 Gt/yr in 1942 to 20.0 Gt/yr in 1975.

● Water vapor and clouds cause 90-95% of the total greenhouse effect, CO2 4.2– 8.4% and methane, ozone, N2O, CH4, CFCs etc. about 1.3%.

● The temperature effect of the first 20 ppm of CO2 is far greater than of the next 400 ppm.

● The total industrial atmospheric CO2 increase caused a temperature rise of ±0.10°C.

● GCMs [General Circulation Models] assume that doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration from a pre-industrial level of 280 ppm will cause by outgoing IR blockage 1.1 C warming that is amplified by associated water–vapor related IR blockage, giving rise to a positive feedback of 2.1 C, resulting in a net temperature increase of 3.2 C.

● Observations show, however, that the combined water vapor, clouds and albedo feedback is with –0.8 C clearly negative and thus reduces the postulated net CO2 warming effect to 0.3 C.

● Since 1750 atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by about 35.5%. Of this about ⅓ is attributed to anthropogenic emissions and ⅔ to natural sources.

● δ13C-based and mass balance calculations suggest that about 30% of the current atmospheric CO2 are isotopically depleted with more than ⅔ originating from natural marine and biogenic sources and less than ⅓ from anthropogenic emissions.

● Variations in solar activity dominate climate change. Variations in GHG concentration and composition (water vapor, CO2) play a secondary role.

● GCM [General Circulation Models] neglect the PDO [Pacific Decadel Osccillation].

● The Modern Warm Period is not an anomaly but one in a sequence reflecting astronomically–controlled solar oscillations.

● 40% of the about 0.5 0C warming between 1715 and 1970 is accounted by direct solar forcing, the remainder by indirect solar forcing in which the GCR flux plays an important role.

● The sun with its planets, combined with the Galactic Cosmic Ray flux drive the Earth’s climate and not CO2, as professed by IPCC.

● The 20th Century Solar Grand Maximum of general warming that started in 1924 and ended 2008 will be followed by an episode of lower solar activity and notable cooling.

See Peter Ziegler’s pdf presentation here.

Hat-tip: http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/.

From Wikipedia:

Peter Alfred Ziegler (Winterthur, November 2, 1928) is a Swiss geologist, who made important contributions to the understanding of the geological evolution of Europe and the North Atlantic borderlands, of intraplate tectonics and of plate tectonic controls on the evolution and hydrocarbon potential of sedimentary basins.

He is a member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Sciences, the Polish Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and the Academia Europaea. He is a life member of the Bureau of the International Lithosphere Program and an honorary member of the Geological Society of London, the European Geosciences Union, the Geological Society of Poland and the American Association of Petroleum Geologists.

At the occasion of his 80th birthday the Swiss Geological Society honoured Peter A. Ziegler with a symposium on the theme “Deep Earth – from Crust to Core”, held in Lugano, November 23d, 2008. Peter A. Ziegler is still active and regularly contributes to geosciences by reviewing papers and research proposals. It is the unending support by his wife Yvonne that has shaped his career. Hats off to her!

In 1992 Peter Ziegler was appointed as Honorary Lecturer at University of Basel and in 1996 as Titular Professor for Global Geology. He was awarded Honorary Doctor Degrees by the Moscow State University (1997) and the Technical University Delft (2001). He is recipient of the Foumarier medal of the Belgian Geological Society, the van Waterschot van der Gracht medal of the Royal Geological and Mining Society of the Netherlands, the William Smith medal of the Geological Society of London, the Neville George medal of the Geological Society of Glasgow, the Stephan Müller medal of the European Geosciences Union, the Leopold von Buch medal of the German Geological Society and the Leonidovici Kaptsa medal of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. From the American Association of Petroleum Geologists he received the Robert Dott sr. Memorial Award for the publication of his Memoir 43, and later the Special Commendation Award for his regional synthesis of the geological evolution of Europe and for being a lively catalyst of the dialogue among Earth Scientists.


11 responses to “Leading International Geologist Peter Ziegler: “Sun Is Driving Climate, Not CO2.””

  1. Ed Caryl

    I agree totally with all of those findings. The only quibble with the numbers is this one: “…less than ⅓ from anthropogenic emissions.” I suspect the anthropogenic portion of the current CO2 level is less than 10%, perhaps less than 5%. Land-use, grassland depletion, desertification, and rain forest distruction, along with sea-surface temperature rise accounts for 95% of the CO2 rise.

    1. BobW in NC

      Data from a table in the IPCC AR4 report worked out to 2.9% – seems low, but that’s what it was then.

  2. ArndB

    Without the sun there would be only darkness! Without water on earth there would be no weather or climate!
    “_Approximately 80% of the solar energy intercepted by our planet (173 petawatt) enters the atmosphere over the oceans.” J.D. Woods, 1984, “The upper ocean and sea-air interaction in global climate”, in: John T. Houghton (ed), The Global Climate, Cambridge, p.141, 142.
    More about ocean dimension with regard to the atmosphere, here http://climate-ocean.com/book%202012/a/a3/mid/big/A3b-5.png

  3. JC Smith

    You guys crack me up:) I LOVE you guys. And to think…..the sun is biggest cause of warmth on earth. SHOCKING:) Please tell me something I didn’t already know.

    By the way…..the clock is ticking faster on oil and gas. And it will tick even faster over the next year when oil and gas prices both rise sifnificantly. The end of the fossil fuel tunnel can be seen….even if it is decades in the future.

    But the clock continues to click….louder and louder……faster and faster.


    1. DirkH

      “By the way…..the clock is ticking faster on oil and gas. And it will tick even faster over the next year when oil and gas prices both rise sifnificantly. The end of the fossil fuel tunnel can be seen….even if it is decades in the future.”

      Now I don’t know what you mean
      a) that we are running out of energy resources; now that is rather unlikely for the next 1,500 years; see here

      b) that rising prices for fossil fuels and dropping prices for PV start to make PV viable in sun rich places. Now that was to be expected; and I have no problem at all with that. I am a free marketer; if entrepreneurs or households in California or India can turn a profit with PV, without subsidies, good for them.

      Since the 1980ies PV prices dropped a factor of 2 every 10 years. This naturally expands the market for PV. It is the natural change to a new technology. What I see little sense in is squandering 20 bn EUR a year like Germany does trying to be ahead of the curve. That is simply wasted money; with which you can at most achieve a slight constant offset of an exponential curve.

    2. Ed Caryl

      What do you do at night? And when it’s cloudy? And in Northern Europe where the sunshine hours are like Alaska? The grid stability problem requires large, always running backup. Same problem with wind. Your so-called renewables can never be more than about 20% of our electrical power. In 50 years there will be huge tracts of land dedicated for landfills for your “renewables.”

  4. Casper
  5. Paddy

    Take away the subsidies and purchase mandates from unreliable energy producers and you have nothing, zilch, nada. As for biofuels, the more produced, the higer food prices go and more and more poor people starve.

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