Goal Post Migration Alert! Father of 2°C Target Schellnhuber Postpones CO2 Emissions Peak 10 Years: From 2020 To 2030!

Reader Kurt in Switzerland points out that Germany’s Climate Pope John Schellnhuber, Director of the end-of-times Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), has just postponed the timepoint when man’s CO2 emissions must reach a peak and start their (rapid) downward trend.

Two days ago I quoted Professor Schellnhuber, who said:

At the latest by 2030 Co2 emissions must reach their peak and start downward.”

That deadline appeared to be new, so Kurt in Switzerland checked if that was the deadline Schellnhuber had given in the past. Kurt writes:

In 2011, Schellnhuber insisted that the emissions curve needed to peak no later than 2020 in order to meet the 2 degree warming target. http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg2011_ZfE.pdf (See p. 7 of 34).”

Indeed in 2011 here Prof. Schellnhuber wrote:

The global emissions trend reversal must occur no later than 2020 [in order to assure compliance to the 2-degree C limit].”

Three years ago Schellnhuber was warning we had to turn things around by 2020 at the latest, or else we would be doomed. Now suddenly we’ve just been given 10 more years?

Now what could have possibly compelled Prof. Schellnhuber to recalculate a new peak time? Perhaps it was the sudden the realization that his expectation of a possible trend change by 2020 was one of Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds? Global CO2 emissions have not even yet started to slow down, and a trend reversal point is nowhere near in sight. Major emerging industrial countries like China and India are still seeing rapid, accelerating CO2 emissions growth.

Even Schellnhuber’s home country of Germany, supposedly a model for cutting CO2 emissions, has not managed to reduce CO2 emissions since 2000 – despite more than tripling its renewable energy capacity at a cost of hundreds of billions of euros, as EIKE shows here today:

EIKE_CO2

 CO2 emissions from electricity are depicted by the red line. Renewable energy capacity by the blue line. It’s not working! Source: BDEW

 The story is the same in neighboring Austria. Die Presse here quotes Austrian Green Party spokeswoman Christiane Brunner:

According to an evaluation by participants of the UN Climate Conference in Lima Peru, Austria has not ‘saved a single gram of CO2.’ […]

In 1990 Austria saw CO2 emissions of 78 million tonnes; in 2005 it was 82 million tonnes. ‘When one calculates the EU2020 taregts, Austria will end up once again at only 78 million tonnes in the year 2020 – and that only if additional measures get implemented,’ Brunner criticizes.”

We can certainly expect Professor Schellnhuber to make yet another recalculation in the year 2018 or so, pushing back yet again the deadline for a trend change to 2040 or even 2050. This of course is as remote from science as one could possibly get. Professor Schellnhuber and his scientists in Potsdam are rapidly making themselves to a laughing stock.

 

31 responses to “Goal Post Migration Alert! Father of 2°C Target Schellnhuber Postpones CO2 Emissions Peak 10 Years: From 2020 To 2030!”

  1. handjive

    Another great catch @ntz.

    Of course, this new goalpost makes much more sense, as the well informed climate scientist Bob Geldof said the world could end in 2030.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/news/bob-geldof-the-world-could-end-by-2030-8864186.html

    PS. I have stopped buying green bananas and, no, you can’t call me crazy!

    1. Henning Nielsen

      PPS Try watermelons, they are always (over)ripe.

  2. Klimamanifest_2007 (@Klima_Manifest)

    Man kann übrigens mit folgenden Link-Thread auf die relevante .pdf-Seite direkt-aufrufbar verlinken:

    http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/hauptgutachten/jg2011/wbgu_jg2011_ZfE.pdf#page=4

  3. Klimamanifest_2007 (@Klima_Manifest)
  4. tom0mason

    “Global CO2 emissions have not even yet started to slow down, and a trend reversal point is nowhere near in sight. Major emerging industrial countries like China and India are still seeing rapid, accelerating CO2 emissions growth. “

    This statement gives weight to the lie that humans are the main source of atmospheric CO2.

    We are not, rge rest of nature is. We do not control atmospheric CO2 levels.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Off-topic
    It’s nice to see that the ever resourceful German Development Bank (KFW) has earmarked $200 million (USD) support in form of Green Credit Line for the development of renewable energy and energy efficiency projects.

    Renate Von Bodden also disclosed that another facility worth €5 million (Euros) has been set aside for technical assistance through the KFW, adding that the German agency is endowed with required experience that would be useful to Nigerians in developing their capacities in renewable energy projects.

    http://allafrica.com/stories/201412091621.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    1. DirkH

      “Also, he stated that after the last bi-national meeting in Berlin, the Germany have approved the one megawatt renewable electricity project for the University of Ibadan.

      This, he said, would also create opportunities for research, as he observed that Nigerians are tired of the nuisance created by diesel run generators.”

      Nuisance? Diesel? Out of my head I have difficulty imagining anything more reliable than a Diesel. Also, Nigeria has oil, perfect match. These guys are getting funny as they’re trying to justify all the stolen taxpayer money sloshing in all directions.

  5. Loodt Pretorius

    Pierre, you mentioned the southern neighbour of Germany, Austria, but not the eastern neighbour, the Czech republic, where they still use nuclear reactors. Surely the CO2 problem lies with the absence of nuclear power generation?

    1. DirkH

      Sure.

  6. DirkH

    “Now what could have possibly compelled Prof. Schellnhuber to recalculate a new peak time?”

    Greed.

    1. Ian G

      Maybe the Chinese targets.

    2. michael hart

      Embarrassment? Shame?

      1. DirkH

        Shame? Schellnhuber? He used to be a fixture on German state TV back when Global Warming was the moral panic of the day. Schellnhuber wouldn’t know shame or embarassment if it bit him in the ass.

  7. Henning Nielsen

    It is like a screen or a carnival mask, carried in front of the alarmists, 10 years in front. After all, it is just one digit they need to change; we must reverse the trend in 2 (that’s right) 0 (correct) 2-3-4-5-etc, and 0 (again, correct).

    So, out of 4 digits in the timetable for climate disaster, only 1 needs to change. Which means that 75% of the prediction is right, right? Just like in Himalayagate, 2035 or 2350 so what? They are 75% right anyway.

  8. Green Sand

    They know what year it is?

    1. Bernd Felsche

      For Schelly? Any year between 1934 and 1944.

  9. Kurt in Switzerland

    h/t to Adrian O. (commenting at Andy Revkin’s Dot Earth at the NY Times) for the link to the “Welt im Wandel” pamphlet put out by Schellnhuber’s WBGU.

  10. DirkH

    Greenpeace jackboots trampling the rights of small inconsequential nations. Happily ignoring Peruvian laws limiting access to the Nazca lines, to produce a photo they could easily have photoshopped. But that would mean respecting other people.

    Photo.
    http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/greenpeace-entschuldigt-sich-fuer-aktion-an-nazca-linien-a-1007812.html

    Greenpeace Feldmarshall now heading to Peru to apologize.

    1. mwhite

      “The Peruvian government said it would prosecute the activists who took part. ”

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30422994

      What ever happened to those who were let out of Russia just before Christmas last year?

      1. Colorado Wellington

        Greenpeace said they will accept “reasonable consequences”. Given their reasoning capacity and the fact they believe to be above the laws of nations, they won’t accept any.

  11. mike restin

    Yeah, well step across the line…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wj5nYmmHRD8

  12. Geir Aaslid

    DirkH asks: “what could possibly gave compelled Prof. Schellnhuber to recalculate a new peak time?”

    Since he is advising Frau Merkel on climate policy, what does this mean for future German emission targets? Will those also be postponed 10 years into the future?

    1. DirkH

      Official German policies and what gets done are two different things.
      Schellnhuber seems to be a mostly decorative figure now.
      Merkel used to have herself called the Climate Chancellor as long as that was needed to outgreen the Greens. Now, the Greens concentrate on promoting uncontrolled mass immigration and some other, unpalatable, ingredients of the culture revolution agenda, so, Merkel never mentions climate these days, she knows it has become political poison.

  13. Curious George

    CO2 emissions peak is a moving target just like a nuclear fusion power.

    My prediction: CO2 emissions will peak when a fusion becomes available.

  14. John F. Hultquist

    “Greenpeace Feldmarshall now heading to Peru to apologize.”

    File under “2 wrongs don’t make a right.”
    Peru should take this goon directly to jail – if they let his glider land at all.

  15. crosspatch

    By the way, the CO2 emissions drop post 2007 was due to massive economic downturn. What people should have keyed on was that while human CO2 emissions dropped, global atmospheric CO2 levels continued to rise unabated. If human caused emissions were the primary contributor to atmospheric CO2 content, one would have expected the rate of rise to fall. In fact, there is no discernible change in the rate of atmospheric CO2 increase even though human emissions fell.

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.png

  16. mwhite

    From the UK Telegraph

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/11286404/Watch-Climate-change-explained-in-60-second-animation.html

    “Climate scientists at the Royal Society produce a 60 second guide addressing common assertions made by people who dismiss climate change “

    1. DirkH

      Well, didn’t address any of my assertions – e.g. that there is no positive water vapor feedback in reality, only in models. They do not see a need to change their tactics as long as fresh taxpayer money keeps rolling in.

  17. Jimbo

    Pierre,
    Here is another goalpost move which occurred around the end of November.

    Late this year Prof. Wadhams changed his prediction of an ice-free Arctic from 2016 to 2020.

    Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011
    Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’
    Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.

    “It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/8877491/Arctic-sea-ice-to-melt-by-2015.html

    BBC News – 27 August 2012
    Professor Peter Wadhams, from Cambridge University, told BBC News: “A number of scientists who have actually been working with sea ice measurement had predicted some years ago that the retreat would accelerate and that the summer Arctic would become ice-free by 2015 or 2016.

    I was one of those scientists – and of course bore my share of ridicule for daring to make such an alarmist prediction.”
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19393075

    Guardian – 17 September 2012
    Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years
    “This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice

    Arctic News – June 27, 2012
    My own view of what will happen is: 1. Summer sea ice disappears, except perhaps for small multiyear remnant north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, by 2015-16. 2. By 2020 the ice free season lasts at least a month and by 2030 has extended to 3 months…..
    https://archive.today/XuQRa

  18. Klimamanifest_2007 (@Klima_Manifest)

    New Lies of “ClimatePope” Schellnhuber:
    http://youtu.be/iqw69x1GOpo (GERMAN)

  19. Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #160 | Watts Up With That?
  20. Brian H

    The supply of postponements is infinite.