Europe Cooling…Weather Service Data Show Falling January Mean Temperatures Over Past 30 Years

Josef Kowatsch and Stefan Kämpfe at the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) here have been looking at temperatures in Central Europe, foremost Germany, over the past 30 years.


Heavy snow blankets Germany in January, 2018. Photo: Stefan Kämpfe

The German media like to say that Germany has been warming rapidly due to global warming, especially winter. Yet a look at the data tells a different story. Although January, 2018 was a mild one at a mean of 3.8°C, as measured by the German DWD national weather service, the overall January trend is COOLING.

The warm January, 2018, did little to curb Germany’s overall January cooling trend, as data from the DWD show. Kowatsch and Kämpfe have plotted the January data over the past 31 years along with the computed linear trend line:

Figure 1: January mean temperatures for Germany have been cooling over the past 31 years. Chart: Josef Kowatsch, based on data from the DWD.

This winter’s mild Central European weather has been attributed to a series of lows that have pumped in mild air from the Atlantic and kept much of Europe out of the ice box. Also heavy precipitation has been associated with the lows, and higher elevations have seen heavy snowfalls as a result — especially in the mountain regions and Alps.

Trend contradicts the CO2

Looking at different locations in Germany, the East German station of Erfurt/Weimar shows the same January cooling trend despite rising CO2 concentrations.

Figure 2: January temperature trend (blue) over the past 31 years  in Erfurt (316m elevation) compared to CO2 concentrations (green). Chart: Stefan Kämpfe.

This cooling has been occurring despite urbanization and added waste heat. Currently 100 hectares of building and asphalt are being added daily.

Substantial cooling at the high elevations

Getting away from urban areas, Kowatsch and Kämpfe looked at the mean January temperature atop Germany’s highest peak, the Zugspitze, and at Amtsberg in the East German Erzgebirge near Chemnitz.

The following chart shows the 31 year trend for the Zugspitze, some 2960 m above sea level:

Figure 3: January’s mean temperature on the summit of Germany’s highest mountain, Zugspitze, has trended significantly downward over the 31 years: from -8.3°C in 1988 to over -11°C in 2018 (using the linear trend). That’s about 1°C per decade! Chart source: Josef Kowatsch.

Urban heat island likely skewing the real cooling

Next we look at the station Amtsberg at the foot of the Erzgebirge in East Germany. Here over the past 30 years the mean January temperature has fallen modestly and shows no signs at all of any warming.

Figure 4: Rural station Amtsberg (blue curve) near Chemnitz is similar to the trend observed across Germany (red curve). Chart source: Josef Kowatsch.

Kowatsch and Kämpfe write that they believe the urban heat island (UHI) effect has not been adequately accounted for in the DWD data, and thus the cooling may actually be even stronger.

So if you’re looking for warming, you won’t find it in Central Europe — despite all the fake climate news you might be hearing.

33 responses to “Europe Cooling…Weather Service Data Show Falling January Mean Temperatures Over Past 30 Years”

  1. SebastianH

    Uuuuh, we were waiting for that monthly Kowatsch post. Thank you for bringing the sophistication of EIKE to this blog 😉

    The German media like to say that Germany has been warming rapidly due to global warming, especially winter. Yet a look at the data tells a different story.

    Yes, look at the data:
    https://www.dwd.de/DWD/klima/national/gebietsmittel/brdras_ttt_01_de.jpg
    https://www.dwd.de/DWD/klima/national/gebietsmittel/brdras_ttt_16_de.jpg
    I wonder why the 30-year mean still increases despite all the alleged “cooling” in those graphs, don’t you?

    I guess the only Kowatsch worth watching/following is the one in Altered Carbon …

    1. Kurt in Switzerland

      Seb,

      The post here refers to the January data from Germany from 1988 to date.
      The graph which you posted twice starts in 1880 and clearly demonstrates a positive trend over the past century +. But for the past 30 y, there is no apparent trend.

      1. AndyG55

        Poor seb, he DESPERATELY wants to go back to the LIA, the COLDEST period in 10,000 years.

        Siberia beckons you, seb.

        Wind and solar works so much better up there, seb.

        Yo will be able to give up your TOTAL RELIANCE on fossil fuels for heating and travel.

      2. SebastianH

        What do you call it when a new value in a time series increases the average of the past x (in this case 30) values?

        1. AndyG55

          What do you call it when someone is so WILFULLY BLIND that they REFUSE to see what plain obvious on front of them

          In this case a DOMINANT COOLING TREND, with a jump in 1970

          I call it WILFUL IGNORANCE, the only thing that seb is capable of.

          We are all STILL WAITING for empirical proof that CO2 causes any warming of water or atmosphere , or anything.

          seb, you remain, always.. PERPETUALLY EMPTY.

        2. AndyG55

          Do you DENY that there is distinct cooling trend from 1915 – 1970 in your first graph, seb

          Do you DENY that there is a distinct cooling trend from about 1975 to now, seb

          Do you live in a fantasy land of WANTON, DELIBERATE DENIAL…… as all AGW sympathisers do.

    2. AndyG55

      Seb’s charts are actually DOMINATED by cooling trends, with a couple of large step changes, especially one in 1970.

      If look at about 1915 -1965, you can see the section I am talking about. This COOLING is obviously a sign of increasing CO2. 😉

      I’ve added some lines as an illustration.

      https://s19.postimg.org/ii4w5u5sz/brdras_ttt_01_de.jpg

      Anyone know what caused that step change in 1970?

      1. SebastianH

        And here we go again … the “step change” nonsense. This might be a general problem with you, AndyG55. After all you think a one time compression also increases temperature permanently. So why would an El Nino Not be able to do the same thing, right? Or any other phenomenon …

        Should I also draw some lines in those graphs? Let’s go wild and completely cover them with lines connecting all data points back and forth. Should be fun 🙂

      2. AndyG55

        Wilfully blind seb,

        EVERYONE can see the DOMINANT COOLING TREND, with a jump in 1970, seb

        https://s19.postimg.org/ii4w5u5sz/brdras_ttt_01_de.jpg

        Sorry your brain-washed blinkering does not allow you to se REALITY. !!

        Sorry your blocked anti-knowledge does not allow you to accept the basics of actual physics, be it structural or atmospheric.

        SO BLIND, so sad, so seb !!

        Remain in your PHANTASY, anti-knowledge world seb.

        Its pitiful and pathetic, but its all you have.

  2. Bitter&twisted

    Don’t like it when sceptics cherry-pick a start date do you, Seb?
    But you don’t appear to see a problem when warmists do.
    There is a word to describe this kind of behaviour Seb&stianH.
    The clue is the last letter of your online name.

    1. SebastianH

      I don’t like it when skeptics freely interpret data as to their liking and then declare something which simply isn’t true …

      1. AndyG55

        I find it HILARIOUS when AGW sympathisers are WILFULL BLIND to data in front of them.

        …. and continually yap mindlessly about things they OBVIOUSY know NOTHING about.

      2. Bitter&twisted

        Why? It’s what warmists have raised to an artform.
        As the saying goes “what’s goes around comes around”
        Suck it up.

      3. tom0mason

        So Seb,

        From you —
        “I don’t like it when skeptics freely interpret data as to their liking and then declare something which simply isn’t true …”

        Your contention is there was no cooling trends during the periods indicated on the graphs that AndyG55 submitted. That’s an interesting reinterpretation of what actually happened seb, so you’ve not only got a fantasy about the future, your totally misguided about the past.

        Ho-hum, you apparently live in a strange place similar but not the same as others.

        1. SebastianH

          Nah, what AndyG55 does is playing “color by numbers” or something like that. But you reply is interesting too. It’s exactly what you quoted … Free interpretation and then coming to the wrong conclusion. What actually happened is a blog author wrote something about January in Germany and concluded it isn’t warming in Europe. Do you think that is a correct conclusion?

          1. AndyG55

            Another EMPTY fantasy seb post,

            Seb’s AGW cataracts refuse to let him see what EVERYONE ELSE can see…. that being the DOMINANT COOLING TREND since 1915. (with a jump in 1970)

            Blinkered DENIAL, the only thing seb has left to yap with.

          2. tom0mason

            So it is your contention that there is no cooling during those periods indicated on the graphs that AndyG55 submitted.

            Sorry but why all of the angst by meteorologist, scientists, and government official back in the 1970 over the perceived plunge into a new ice-age. Even Leonard Nimoy (Mr. Spock from StarTrek) and Steven Schneider explained The Coming Ice Age at the time.

            1970’s cooling was real and caused great consternation at the time, moving some governments to take some action.

            Your interpretation of the past temperature record is incorrect.

  3. mwhite

    “and higher elevations have seen heavy snowfalls as a result — especially in the mountain regions and Alps.”

    All that snow feeding those vanishing glaciers.

  4. A C Osborn

    Yes, isn’t it very odd how the earlier part of Seb’s charts show a nic warming Trend, but the last 30 years, when the CO2 has been at it’s highest the Temperatures have been COOLING.
    So More CO2 = more Cooling.

    1. AndyG55

      Yep, That is the obvious conclusion from the graphs.

      If you look at the graph here, you can see that there was a distinct jump in 1970, (why?) but apart from that, there has been a cooling trend since about 1915 while world aCO2 has increased to almost biosphere sustainable levels.

      Bit of a worry just how COLD it will get in Germany as the CO2 increase to a plant luvin’ 700ppm !!

      Certain people will relish that cold, so long as they have fossil fuel derived heating available.

      1. AndyG55
    2. SebastianH

      Wow, you disproved AGW, congratulations! Now explain why you thing German climate in January is exemplary for the whole globe! I am looking forward to your reply.

      1. SebastianH

        *think

      2. Kenneth Richard

        explain why you thing German climate in January is exemplary for the whole globe!

        Here’s a comment you wrote about “anartic” sea ice being at a “record low” for a few months during 2016-’17, and that these few months are indicative of climate change:

        http://notrickszone.com/2017/03/27/20-scientists-no-continent-scale-warming-of-antarctic-temperature-is-evident-in-the-last-century/#comment-1192726

        And yet the anartic sea ice extent is on a record (since 1979) low. How could that happen if there is no change in climate in that region?

        http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

        P.S.: Artic too … record low ice extent.

        Can you explain why a few months in Antarctica overturn the entire 39-year trend of increasing sea ice and represent the globe? In other words, will you acknowledge that you are here doing exactly as you are accusing A C Osborn of doing?

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