June 12, 1987: “A Question Of Freedom For All Mankind…Mr. Gorbachov, Tear Down This Wall”

UPDATE: http://www.thelocal.de/20150612/reagan-to-gorbachev-tear-down-this-wall

Sorry for the interruption in blogging and comment moderation over the past 24 or so hours – I was a bit swamped by other things. But now things are back on track. I’ll be posting back at normal speed tomorrow.

Though I missed the anniversary date by two days, The following video is a nice flashback … to 28 years ago:

I don’t know about you, but I get goose bumps every time I hear that last sentence.

I’m glad to say that during a recent visit to Berlin, President Reagan was prominently featured at the Checkpoint Charlie Museum, a must-see if you’re visiting the German capital. If you go, I suggest starting the visit at the top of the museum and working backwards.

Reagan’s (spineless) advisors actually crossed out the “Tear down this wall” sentence, deeming it too provocative. But Reagan ignored it. Less two and a half years later the wall came crashing down.


NoTricksZone Moves To A New WordPress Theme

No, you have not landed on the wrong site.

NoTricksZone has simply switched to a new WordPress theme. The old hybrid theme was getting too many problems with each WordPress version update and so it was high time to change.

I know the new look will take some getting used to, but as far as function is concerned it should be trouble-free for a good while.

A couple of weeks ago the site with the old theme was inaccessible for some 32 hours. Then about 10 days ago readers were able to write comments, but there was no longer a “Submit comment” button.  These things of course can be fixed, but I just don’t know enough about programming the script, so I said the hell with it.

There will be some slight appearance changes in the future, but what you see is pretty much what you will get.

The good thing is that readers are now able to submit comments once again, and this is what really give the blog life.

Looking forward to hearing from the readers once again!

NoTricksZone WordPress Site Update: Facelift / New Theme In The Pipeline

Since last week the NoTricksZone site has been experiencing technical difficulties, which all seem to be rooted to WordPress version updates. The new updates just don’t seem to be working well anymore with the Hybrid theme I’ve been using for almost 5 years now.

Last weekend the site was down over 30 hours. This, according to the hosting company, was due to a “faulty htaccess file” in the new WordPress version, which the hosting company thankfully eliminated.

Then a few days ago I noticed the NTZ was not using the latest WordPress version, and so I updated the site to the newest available version: 4.2.1. Unfortunately since then the reader comments function has stopped working. Readers are able to write a comment, but the “Submit Comment” button is missing.

Other sites Using WordPress have had the same problem as well. Normally updates are supposed to improve the sites. Now they seem to be wreaking havoc instead.

Concerning the missing “Submit comment” button, there now appears to be a fix that takes care of the problem.

Unfortunately it involves editing the site code, something I’m very very wary of attempting because I’m not a programmer, and I’m not sure where the piece of code belongs. Surely there is the risk I’d makes things worse.

So for the time being, until I find someone who can safely repair the problem, it will not be possible for readers to leave comments.

Another solution is changing the WordPress theme. This is the one I’m leaning to. I’ve been using the current theme almost 5 years, and now is probably as good a time as any to change to a new, fresher one. I’ve looked into it, but here too the task does not look very straight forward and harbors the potential for major messiness. I’ve previewed several newer WordPress themes, and they all have no problems with reader comments. However, many of my sidebars (e.g. Archives, Blogroll, Categories, etc.) fail to appear in the preview. I need to look into this in greater detail.

In summary, readers have to expect changes coming to the site, and possible potholes along the way. Big Oil hasn’t sent any checks and I don’t have the luxury of bringing in a programming specialist.

Originally I started out doing this with the purpose of getting involved in the climate debate – and not the technical programming of WordPress sites, which now seems to be more and more frequent. If anyone out there has expertise in this and is willing to help out, send me an e-mail (see contact page).


Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: Today’s Weather Patterns Seen In The Past, Asks: “Has NCEP Suddenly Become A Denier?”

Most readers here know Joe Bastardi, the veteran meteorologist at Weatherbell who has a knack of getting his longer term seasonal forecasts correct far more often than not. In a reader comment he replies to warmists’ claims on ocean cycles, particularly to David Appell. I’ve upgraded his comment (with slight editing) as a post.

Question for David A: Is NCEP now a member of the vast denier conspiracy with their much more finely tuned grid that measures global temperature? Last year since the PDO decadal flip. Notice what happens after the warm ENSO event. With the AMO now turning cold, just where do you think temperatures will go after this ENSO event? But I am curious, has NCEP suddenly become a denier in the last 10 years? http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2005.png

The answer will be given to us in the next 20 years. I offered this several times on national TV over 5 years ago, simply watch the temperatures as the oceans complete their cycle, WELL DOCUMENTED BY SOMEONE WHO HAS A TRACK RECORD FORECASTING THE WARMING, AND RESULTANT HURRICANE PICK UP BACK IN THE 1970S, DR WILLIAM GRAY: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2012.pdf

And why doesn’t total global sea ice make a difference? It certainly did when it was running below normal several years ago. And why can’t we see if the hypothesis is correct, that the increase in temperature was a function of the natural cyclical warming of the ocean, which are reversing now. Another 10-15 years, given 20 years of busted hype, is not going to hurt. And why shouldn’t people be very suspicious, given statements like this from the leaders of this movement: http://www.c3headlines.com/html

So why would I not take these people at their words as to their true motives? As I have explained many times, climate is a TOOL for me to make my forecast. I am watching people ‘blame’ the Pacific for the very idea we used last year and this year to forecast a cold winter in the east, simply by using the same idea that we saw before. So it makes no difference to me. I will still use the methodology that people are discovering (the latest is the warm blob, apparently they are oblivious to 1917-1918, or the late 1950s, or 1970s, which Jerome Nemias wrote about many years ago. Do you know who Jerome Nemias is, David? But back to the easier question. Is NCEP, which clearly shows what is going on, now in the denier camp?”



No blogging today. Just want to wish everyone a Happy Easter!

Thanks for all the kind words in yesterday’s post. It really means a lot to me and encourages me to keep blogging.

Climate Science And Energy Policy News From Germany Site ‘NoTricksZone’ Turns 5! Thank You, Readers!

A couple of days ago NoTricksZone turned 5. The first post was published on April 2, 2010.

This blog was inspired by Donna Laframboise of No Frakking Consensus after I had been part of a group of volunteers who helped her check the literature on which the conclusions of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report were based on. Those results rocked the IPCC.

The beginnings of NoTricksZone were humble, and my expectations were to perhaps reach a few hundred readers per day after a year or so. I didn’t even have any social media buttons. Yet within a few weeks traffic started coming in, in large part thanks to the big sites like Marc Morano Climate Depot, Anthony Watts WUWT and Tom Nelson who linked to NTZ stories. A year later the site reached 1 million views. Now, 5 years later, the 10 million views has been surpassed. Not bad for something that is a hobby on the side for me.

I’m also proud of having been mentioned by Justin Gillis in The New York Times, getting a link at Drudge, being on the Who’s Who List of Climate denialists” and having worked helped out Dr Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt’s climate science critical book Die kalte Sonne (The Neglected Sun), which shook the German climate science establishment.

The main idea behind this blog is to get stories from Germany and Europe that the world would otherwise never hear about out to the broader public. The progress of Germany’s Energiewende is an important issue and other countries worldwide need to get all the information about it before they uncritically accept its rosy, utopian promises. Germany’s Energiewende arguably has become a debacle of immense dimensions. See the side bar under Alternative Energies.

The German Energiewende has even reached my home state of Vermont, and the consequences are catastrophic to the scenic region where I was born and raised. Entire mountain tops have been permanently blasted, disfigured and deforested to make way for industrial wind turbines that now stand more as monuments to a pathological obsession with a computer-generated fictitious climate Armageddon than they do as a real solution. The damage in northern Vermont is irreversible. It’s going to take the ice sheets of the next ice age (that was the scare 40 years ago) to grind off the scars left behind by Vermont’s green eco-madness.

My hope is that others will take a more serious, unemotional look at the real situation in Germany (as well as Spain and Great Britain) and not repeat the German blunders.

The focus of NoTricksZone is also to keep readers up-to-date on what is going on at the prestigious German institutes such as the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology or the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Both are highly influential, but in my view highly irresponsible for having adopted a dangerously ideological position that is completely foreign to the discipline of science. Today they are practicing activist-science in its purest and most virulent form.

NoTricksZone will also continue providing stories brought up by EIKE, DkS and Science Skeptical and many other German sites. The main focus of NoTricksZone will be to continue writing about climate news in Germany and Europe so that people can get stories and insights that they might not otherwise see.

Also thanks to the guest writers who contributed, namely Ed Caryl (I know I’m missing a person or two here, so please forgive me) and all the readers for dropping by regularly. Readers are always welcome to contribute as guest writers.

As a final note, this blog is strictly voluntary and has not received any money at all from Big Oil and industry – not a penny. But of course antagonists are more than welcome to waste their time looking for any links.


Dead At Birth! German Warmist Scientists Slap Down Rahmstorf/Mann AMOC Paper: “Offers No Strong Indication”

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has been loudly trumpeting its latest paper on Atlantic ocean overturning circulation today, claiming there’s been an “exceptional twentieth-century slowdown“. The authors, who include Stefan Rahmstorf and Michael E. Mann, even suggest that the “possible cause of the weakening is climate change“.

Some sites, like Climate Central here, have been unable to contain their glee over the news of the potential climate-change induced oceanic shifts being served up by the PIK. For example the site called the findings “dramatic” and writes (my emphasis):

If the climate relationships identified by the researchers, led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, hold true, growing melt rates in Greenland ‘might lead to further weakening of the AMOC within a decade or two, and possibly even more permanent shutdown’ of key components of it, the scientists warn in their paper.”

The “new” weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
Credit: Nature Climate Change.

Spiegel and the FAZ pour cold water on paper

Fortunately other media sources have been somewhat more critical and report that there’s skepticism on the paper – coming from warmist circles, no less.

Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) here for example writes that Rahmstorf is puzzled that a part of the north Atlantic has cooled over the last 100 years: “The cooling was stronger than what most computer models calculated it would be,” the FAZ reports. Models wrong again!

The FAZ then writes that, “An independent expert assesses the estimation skeptically”, adding:

Climate scientist Martin Visbeck of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel sees Rahmstorf’s assertion of the results critically: ‘The study’s focus on the sub-polar part of the Atlantic and the spectral analysis are interesting,’ he says. But there are other AMOC assessments that point to a completely other development. The paper does not offer any strong indication of the development of the AMOC during the past fifty years.”

When a warmist dismisses another warmists’s science, then you know it’s likely pretty slipshod.

Der Spiegel reports that the study is lacking

German flagship online news weekly Der Spiegel echoed the FAZ, quoting Michael Hofstätter of the Austrian national weather service: the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) in Vienna. Spiegel writes that Hofstätter also “rates the Rahmstorf study with skepticism“.

Spiegel reminds its readers: “Most studies are assuming that the current is in fact stronger.” Spiegel continues:

The temperature fluctuations could also be a ‘temporary natural variation,’ Hofstätter told the online service of the ORF. The measurements covered a time period that was too short to allow concrete forecasts.”

Other websites censored reports of skepticism and uncertainty

For example the end-of-climate conspiracy theorists at German alarmist site Klimaretter of course could not be bothered to mention the study is disputed even by fellow warmist scientists.

Dr. Mann blocks critic at Twitter

Michael Mann also did not want to hear any non-alarmist opinion as well. At Facebook he blocked fair comments left by Jaime Jessop, who kept a screen-shot:

Overall the latest paper by Rahmstorf and Mann did not even survive birth.

Anthony Watts has lots more here.


Israeli Astrophysicist Nir Shaviv: “Solar Activity Responsible For About Half Of 20th Century Global Warming”

Israeli scientist Nir Shaviv recently posted at his site an article on the effects of cosmic radiation on climate. At the end he summarizes:

The results have two particularly interesting implications. First, they bring yet another link between the galactic environment and the terrestrial climate. Although there is no direct evidence that cosmic rays are the actual link on the 32-million-year time scale, as far as we know, they are the only link that can explain these observations. This in turn strengthens the idea that cosmic ray variations through solar activity affect the climate. In this picture, solar activity increase is responsible for about half of the twentieth-century global warming through a reduction of the cosmic ray flux, leaving less to be explained by anthropogenic activity. Also, in this picture, climate sensitivity is on the low side (perhaps 1 to 1.5°C increase per CO2 doubling, compared with the 1.5 to 4.5°C range advocated by the IPCC), implying that the future is not as dire as often prophesied.

The second interesting implication is the actual value of the 32-million-year oscillation. The relatively short period indicates that there is more mass in the galactic plane than accounted for in stars and interstellar gas, leaving the remainder as dark matter. However, this amount of dark matter is more than would be expected if it were distributed sparsely in a puffed-up halo as is generally expected. In other words, this excess mass requires at least some of the dark matter to condense into the disk. If correct, it will close a circle that started in the 1960s when Edward Hill and Jan Oort suggested, based on kinematic evidence, that there is more matter at the plane than observed. This inconsistency and indirect evidence for dark matter was also advocated by John Bahcall, who for many years was a Faculty member here at the IAS.”

Read the entire post here.


The Frigid Winters Of Global Warming: “Uncompromising Cold” … “Conditions That May Be Recalled For Generations”

How often have we heard the older folks reminiscing about good old fashioned New England winters we used to get 50 years ago? Well, they’re back.

Ironically today’s winters are in fact so tough that journalist Jason Samenow of the online Washington Post here predicts that we may remember the current one “for generations“.

A “severe cold” is set to blast the eastern U.S. later in the week. And bitter cold is projected to persist well into March.

The WaPo writes that “parts of New England could witness its coldest air in years” and that frosty conditions will dip “into central and parts of south Florida“.

According to the WaPo, the cold “can be traced to the polar vortex” coming from the North Pole regions, and that the winter will likely leave a deep imprint in our minds:

For areas of New England buried under multiple feet of snow, the added element of uncompromising cold will present extreme mid-winter conditions that may be recalled for generations.

Cold plunging from the North Pole deep into the middle latitudes normally means the polar air gets replaced, usually by warmer air from the south. Yet Arctic regions are also seeing polar vortex-like cold effects, with places in Alaska dipping close to -60°F, writes the WaPo.

The cold that is to grip the US east coast is set to come in two waves. The second wave will originate in Siberia, says the WaPo, and temperatures will be at levels that are 30°F below normal along the entire east coast of the US, with bitter cold literally effecting more than 100 million people.

Source: Weatherbell Analytics

Scientists are baffled by the recent severe cold winters that have struck North America. Ten years ago, when North America saw balmy winters, scientists were trumpeting cold and snowy winters as those of the 1960s and 70s, were “a thing of the past“. Now these old fashioned winters are back from the photo albums and the same red-faced scientists are now claiming these are global-warming frigid winters.

The truth and reality are that this has nothing to do with global warming, but has everything to do with natural cycles…the very ones that have sent global warming packing for 18 years.

Scientists have yet to explain how one distinguishes between a global-warming frigid winter and one that is an old fashioned cold one. Both are the same and arecaused by the same thing: predominant pattern of Arctic air dipping far south for the greater part of the winter season.


Long List Of Warmist Organizations, Scientists Haul In Huge Money From BIG OIL And Heavy Industry!

Reader Jimbo left a comment which I’ve upgraded to a post.

Below he presents a list of 25 examples where climate alarmism organizations and scientists were more than happy to take in big money from Big Oil and industry. Even Michael Mann (Example no. 19) benefitted from the Koch Brothers!


By reader Jimbo

We are often called fossil fuel funded climate change deniers. So you can imagine my shock when I came across these past and present takers of fossil fuel money. Imagine if skeptics hauled in such money.

1. Climate Research Unit (CRU)

From the late 1970s through to the collapse of oil prices in the late 1980s, CRU received a series of contracts from BP to provide data and advice concerning their exploration operations in the Arctic marginal seas. Working closely with BP’s Cold Regions Group, CRU staff developed a set of detailed sea-ice atlases,

This list is not fully exhaustive, but we would like to acknowledge the support of the following funders (in alphabetical order):
British Petroleum…Greenpeace International…Reinsurance Underwriters and Syndicates…Sultanate of OmanShell……

2. Sierra Club
TIME – 2 February 2012

Exclusive: How the Sierra Club Took Millions From the Natural Gas Industry
TIME has learned that between 2007 and 2010 the Sierra Club accepted over $25 million in donations from the gas industry, mostly from Aubrey McClendon, CEO of Chesapeake Energy—one of the biggest gas drilling companies in the U.S. and a firm heavily involved in fracking…”

3. Delhi Sustainable Development Summit
[Founded by Teri under Dr. Rajendra Pachauri chairman of the IPCC]

2011: Star Partner – Rockefeller Foundation
2007: Partners – BP
2006: Co-Associates – NTPC [coal and gas power generation] | Function Hosts – BP
2005: Associate – Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited, India | Co-Associate Shell

4. Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project
Berkeley Earth team members include: Richard Muller, Founder and Scientific Director……Steven Mosher, Scientist…

Financial Support First Phase (2010)
…Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation ($150,000) The Ann & Gordon Getty Foundation ($50,000)…
Second Phase (2011)
…The Ann & Gordon Getty Foundation ($50,000)…
Third Phase (2012)
…The Ann & Gordon Getty Foundation ($50,000)…Anonymous Foundation ($250,000)…
Fourth Phase (2013)
…The Ann & Gordon Getty Foundation ($100,000)…

5. 350.org

350.org caught up in fossil fuel ‘divestment’ hypocrisy
[Rockefellers Brothers Fund] RBF has given 350.org $800,000 in recent years and almost $2 million to the 1Sky Education Fund, now part of 350.org, according to foundation records.”

6. Union of Concerned Scientists

The 2013 Annual Report PDF

UCS thanks the following companies that matched members’ gifts at a level of $1,000 or more….Chevron Corporation…”

Annual Report 2002 PDF

The Union of Concerned Scientists gratefully acknowledges the following individuals and foundations for their generous contributions of at least $500 during our fiscal year 2002 (October 1, 2001–September 30, 2002)…”

Friends of UCS

The Friends of UCS provide substantial support for the ongoing work of the organization…Larry Rockefeller…Matching Gift Companies…BP Amoco Matching Gift Program…Philip Morris Companies, Inc…”

7. University of California, Berkeley
CalCAP, Cal Climate Action Partnership

What is CalCAP?
The Cal Climate Action Partnership (CalCAP) is a collaboration of faculty, administration, staff, and students working to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at UC Berkeley.”

8. University of California, Berkeley
UC Berkeley News – 1 February 2007

BP selects UC Berkeley to lead $500 million energy research consortium with partners Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, University of Illinois.”

9. Climate Institute
About Us

The Climate Institute has been in a unique position to inform key decision-makers, heighten international awareness of climate change, and identify practical ways of achieving significant emissions reductions…

American Gas FoundationBP…NASA….PG&E Corporation [natural gas & electricity]Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Shell Foundation…The Rockefeller Foundation…UNDP, UNEP…”

10. EcoLiving

…EcoLiving provides events and hands-on workshops to teach Albertans about ways to reduce our collective ecological footprint, create more sustainable and energy efficient buildings, and share information about local environmental initiatives and services…”

2008 Sponsors: …ConocoPhillips…Shell 2009 Sponsors: …ConocoPhillips Canada…2013 Sponsors:…Shell FuellingChange…”

11. Nature Conservancy
Climate Change Threats and Impacts

Climate change is already beginning to transform life on Earth. Around the globe, seasons are shifting, temperatures are climbing and sea levels are rising…… If we don’t act now, climate change will rapidly alter the lands and waters we all depend upon for survival, leaving our children and grandchildren with a very different world…”

12. Washington Post – 24 May 2010

…What De Leon didn’t know was that the Nature Conservancy lists BP as one of its business partners. The Conservancy also has given BP a seat on its International Leadership Council and has accepted nearly $10 million in cash and land contributions from BP and affiliated corporations over the years….The Conservancy, already scrambling to shield oyster beds from the spill, now faces a different problem: a potential backlash…”

13. America’s WETLAND Foundation

Restore-Adapt-Mitigate: Responding To Climate Change Through Coastal Habitat Restoration”


Coastal habitats are being subjected to a range of stresses from climate change; many of these stresses are predicted to increase over the next century The most significant effects are likely to be from sea-level rise, increased storm and wave intensity, temperature increases, carbon dioxide concentration increases, and changes in precipitation that will alter freshwater delivery…”


World Sponsor: Shell
Sustainability Sponsors: Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil
National Sponsors: British Petroleum”

14. Green Energy Futures
About Us

Green Energy Futures is a multi-media storytelling project that is documenting the clean energy revolution that’s already underway. It tells the stories of green energy pioneers who are moving forward in their homes, businesses and communities.
Gold Sponsor: Shell”

15. World Resources Institute

WRI engages businesses, policymakers, and civil society at the local, national, and international levels to advance transformative solutions that mitigate climate change and help communities adapt to its impacts.

ACKNOWLEDGING OUR DONORS (January 1, 2011 – August 1, 2012 PDF 5MB

Shell and Shell Foundation…ConocoPhillips Company…”

16. Purdue Solar
Navitas Takes 1st at SEMA 2013

Last week, Purdue Solar Racing took home first place in the Battery Electric division at the 2013 Shell Eco-marathon. The winning run reached an efficiency of 78.1 m/kWh (a miles per gallon equivalency of approximate 2,630MPGe)…”

17. AGU Fall Meeting
9-13 December 2013
Thank You to Our Sponsors

The AGU would like to take the time to thank all of our generous sponsors who support the
2013 Fall Meeting and the events at the meeting.
ExxonMobil…….BP, Chevron…..Mineralogical Society of America…”

18. Science Museum – Atmosphere
About our funders

…exploring climate science gallery and the three-year Climate Changing… programme. Through these ground-breaking projects we invite all our visitors to deepen their understanding of the science behind our changing climate.

We believe that working together with such a wide range of sectors is something that we’ll all need to be able to do in our climate-changing world….

Principal Sponsors: Shell…Siemens…”

19. Dr. Michael Mann
WUWT – October 15, 2013

…it is enlightening to learn that his current employer, Penn State, gets funds from Koch, and so does where Dr. Mann did his thesis from, the University of Virginia. Those darn facts, they are stubborn things. See the list that follows…”


Jimbo October 16, 2013 at 11:49 am

Why stop at Koch funding?
Exxon Mobil Corporation
2012 Worldwide Contributions and Community Investments
…..Pennsylvania State University [$] 258,230…”

20. Stanford University
New York Times – 21 November 2002

Exxon-Led Group Is Giving A Climate Grant to Stanford
Four big international companies, including the oil giant Exxon Mobil, said yesterday that they would give Stanford University $225 million over 10 years for research on ways to meet growing energy needs without worsening global warming….In 2000, Ford and Exxon Mobil’s global rival, BP, gave $20 million to Princeton to start a similar climate and energy research program…”

21. National Science Teachers Association – Jun 11, 2012
by Wendi Liles

You are invited this summer to the 4th Annual CSI: Climate Status Investigations free climate change educator professional development in Wilmington, DE…. You will also get to participate in a climate change lesson with the staff from Delaware Nature Society to investigate the effect of climate change on their urban watershed…..a few fun giveaways thanks to our sponsors-DuPont, Agilent Technologies, Lockheed Martin, Chevron, Delaware Nature Society…”

22. Duke University

ConocoPhillips Pledges $1 Million to Climate Change Policy Partnership at Duke 2007

ConocoPhillips, the third-largest integrated energy company in the United States, has pledged $1 million to support an industry-university collaboration working to develop policies that address global climate change, Duke University President Richard H. Brodhead announced Wednesday.”

23. Alberta Water Council PDF

Growing demands from an increasing population, economic development, and climate change are the realities impacting our water allocation system.
…Breakfast Sponsor: ConocoPhillips Canada…River Level Sponsors….ConocoPhillips Canada”

24. University of California, Davis
Institute of Transportation Studies PDF

10th Biennial Conference on Transportation and Energy Policy
Toward a Policy Agenda For Climate Change
Asilomar Transport & Energy Conferences
VIII. Managing Transitions in the Transport Sector: How Fast and How Far?
September 11-14, 2001. Sponsored by US DOE, US EPA, Natural Resources Canada, ExxonMobil, and Chevron (Chair: D. Sperling)…”

25. Washington Free Beacon – 27 January 2015

Foreign Firm Funding U.S. Green Groups Tied to State-Owned Russian Oil Company
Executives at a Bermudan firm funneling money to U.S. environmentalists run investment funds with Russian tycoons
A shadowy Bermudan company that has funneled tens of millions of dollars to anti-fracking environmentalist groups in the United States is run by executives with deep ties to Russian oil interests and offshore money laundering schemes involving members of President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle……The Sierra Club, the Natural Resource Defense Council, Food and Water Watch, the League of Conservation Voters, and the Center for American Progress were among the recipients of Sea Change’s $100 million in grants in 2010 and 2011….“None of this foreign corporation’s funding is disclosed in any way,” the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee wrote of the company in a report last year…”


German Television Shocks…Outstanding Documentary On Historical Sudden Climate Changes Driven By Natural Factors

As part of its Terra-X series, ZDF German television presented a two-part documentary on January 11  and 18 on climate and human history. Rather than pushing senseless alarmism, the ZDF series did an excellent job looking at the powerful natural factors that drive climate, and how they can do so abruptly.

Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne.

In Part 1 “Climate makes history“, the documentary looks at how abrupt climate changes indeed occurred in the past and how they had profound impacts on the development of our civilization, thus dumping cold water on the naïve notion that climate used to be more or less steady before humans began industrialization. Part 1 looks at the period of the last ice age and through the events leading up to the Roman Empire 2000 years ago.

Part 1 begins by telling us that extreme cold, heat and prolonged droughts are nothing new and that life comes and goes with the sudden changes in climate. More than once did very early man face extinction, “especially during the last ice age,” says the documentary. It wasn’t until the world’s climate warmed up during the Holocene that the human species truly prospered.

At the 3.30 mark we see a planet deep into an ice age, with northern Europe covered in ice and sea level over 100 meters below today’s levels. The species best suited to take the cold during this period was the meat-eating Neanderthal.

At the 6:20 mark the documentary points out that the climate changes dramatically, and that the main driver of the ice ages is the sun, principally the Milankovitch cycles. But also the ocean currents play an important.

At the 8:00 mark the documentary explains how the history of the climate could be reconstructed from sediment cores. These cores, the documentary shows, tells us that there were extreme temperature changes some 60,000 years ago. According to Prof. Frank Sirocko of the University of Mainz at the 9:40 mark:

We see that there were very rapid changes in climate. The warm phases and the cold phases changed abruptly, and in just 10 years, it jumps here.”

At the 10:22 mark Sirocko continues:

At this time the Neanderthals lived in a forest type vegetation. And in 10 years they found themselves in the middle of open steppes and the wild animals they were accustomed to hunting were no longer there. Such extreme climate changes in just 10 years were a real challenge for their hunting-oriented society.”

As the Neanderthals migrated, they soon clashed with homo sapiens, who eventually emerged victorious with the last Neanderthal disappearing 24,000 years ago.

Some 17,000 years ago, the earth’s position relative to the sun led to a thawing, with warm and moist conditions taking hold, allowing civilization to eventually prosper, especially though the development of agriculture, which allowed humans to specialize. Ten thousand years ago the city of Jericho was founded (18:45).

But at about this time, a major catastrophic event was developing in North America. A huge sea on the continent created by melting ice sheets broke through a barrier of ice and flowed like a tidal wave into the Atlantic at about 6200 BC (19:35)…(see graphic at 20:05 mark). This event disrupted the North Atlantic current and caused yet again another major climate disruption. Europe plunged into any icy phase and the Middle East cooled and entered a protracted period of drought – causing Middle Eastern and North African societies to collapse and unleashing a wave of “climate refugees” to Europe and Asia.

At the 22:00 mark, ZDF makes the misleading claim that sea level rose by 120 meters as a result of this event, when in fact most of that rise had already taken place from about 18,000 BC to 8,000 BC, and not all at once around 6200 BC. Moreover Noah’s Ark was built because of rains lasting “40 days and 40 nights”, and not because of the sudden sea level rise. At the 23:30 mark the documentary shows the uncovering of ancient cities that today are located underwater.

At the 24.30 mark we see that at about 6000 BC the Sahara was green and human life flourished, as evidenced by paintings uncovered by archeologists. The Sahara, the documentary says, was a savannah rich with wildlife. At the 26:45 mark British scientist Mark Maslin tells that they found archeological finds throughout the Sahara indicating a green, life-rich Sahara.

All of that came to an end, however, because of “sudden” natural climate change about 7000 years ago – caused by a tilting back of the earth, the documentary says. At the 28:00 mark archeologists studying human remains dated the green Sahara downfall at 3500 BC. Drought and expanding deserts were not restricted to the Sahara, but they also expanded across the globe, the documentary tells us at the 28:40 mark (see yellow areas on the graphic at the 28:57 mark)…The documentary says it was “caused by a slight shift in the earth’s axis”. As a result once again history witnessed huge exoduses of “climate refugees”, especially to the Nile River region, where the technology of irrigation was eventually developed (30:30) and the great Egyptian civilization was born. Not only Egypt prospered during the Bronze Age (3000 – 2000 BC), but so did many other civilizations (33:40 mark).

By now the global warming skeptic viewer begins to sense where the ZDF is leading: “Minor changes can have huge impacts”.

So prosperous were the warm times of the Bronze Age that many societies worshipped the sun (34:45).

But the prosperity of the Bronze Age also crashed at about 1200 BC (35:25) as marauding armies pillaged and plundered wave after wave. What was the cause of the Bronze Age collapse and all the war? At the 36:15 mark the documentary looks at some scientific theories, showing that it may have all been sparked by a climate change. Clues are found in caves in Turkey (37:00). German researcher Dominik Fleitmann examines stalactites for clues telling us about the climate of the past, at the time of the Bronze Age.

Indeed an examination of a stalagmite shows that the Bronze Age coincided with a period of severe drought at 1200 BC. At this time the stalactite shows a significant reduced growth rate due to a lack of water (38:45). The documentary concludes:

That means that at 1200 BC, there was no longer any heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean region. A period of drought took hold over the entire region.”

Fleitmann summarizes: All indication point out that it was dry and cold. A recipe for a disaster.” Massive climate change over to cold and dry conditions caused mass migration and destabilized the surrounding civilizations the documentary then explains.

At 40:39

Likely a climate anomaly was to blame. The world’s climate reached the coldest temperature since the end of the ice age. Precipitation dropped off massively.”

The cold period after the Bronze Age persisted for hundreds of years. The documentary tells how the cold eventually dissipated at about 350 BC, giving way to warm temperatures and more precipitation (41:00) and thus transforming the Middle East and North Africa into “a paradise of crops” – all culminating with the Roman Empire, which ZDF erroneously characterizes as a society where “every citizen enjoyed the same rights” when in fact half of Rome’s population were slaves.

But the ZDF got the last sentence of Part 1 right on why the Roman Empire prospered: “The climate was optimal“. It was warm – even warmer than today.

Overall Part 1 of this ZDF documentary is outstanding and should be presented in English. A rare hats off to the German ZDF television for this effort.

I’ll write something up about Part 2 tomorrow, which I surmise will be about the last 2000 years until today. We’ll see if Mann’s hockey stick gets confirmed or not.


Happy 90th Birthday, Dear S. Fred Singer! Alles Gute Zum Geburtstag!


Very few have shaped the climate science debate and forced the unwanted discussion on climate change like Prof. S. Fred Singer has. Photo: Heartland Instiute

One of the differences I’ve noticed between the USA and Germany is how birthdays are regarded and celebrated, especially the “round ones” ending with a zero, mostly beginning at age 40 (I’ve had a couple myself). They really are a big deal out here and big parties are always in order. The “round ones” are sort of seen as real lifetime milestones.

Today one of the giants of climate science rationality and realism is celebrating his 90th birthday: S. Fred Singer.

Without his leadership and wisdom, the global warming skepticism we see today no doubt would have been very different. It certainly would have been nowhere near as strong and nor feared by alarmists as it is today. We owe him a huge thanks for that.

It would take days or even weeks to write about all his accomplishments. To get an idea you can click here here or here. In 1990 he founded the Science & Environmental Policy Project.

He has authored or co-authored books on global warming, one of which was key in forming my own positions on the subject: Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Years. German Geologist Sebastian Lüning even credited Dr. Singer for playing a an important role in shaping his positions. It goes without saying that the same can be said for thousands of others.

So NoTricksZone wishes Dr. Singer a wonderful and happy 90th birthday, and I’m sure readers, friend and foe alike, will also join me in wishing him many more years participating and playing an instrumental role in the exciting climate science discussion.

So, heart-felt congratulations to one of my heroes!


A Single Meteorologist Explains What $165 Billion In Government-Funded Climate Science Couldn’t

Large scale oceanic oscillations responsible for most of the post 1980 “warming”
By Joe Bastardi

I think global warming is a misnomer.

There is a distortion of the temperature pattern on the globe, brought about by the natural cyclical warming events of the warm PDO and warm AMO together. I spoke about this at Heartland a couple of years ago – how the sea ice increase in the south and the decrease in the north were the hidden message that here is no “warming” just a distortion.

When the tropical Atlantic and Pacific warm in tandem, there is a natural warming that takes place, especially in the northern hemisphere. The Pacific warming after both oceans being cold is a much more dramatic event, as it is the biggest ocean. The fact we have more land in the northern hemisphere and that the Arctic is surrounded by land means the summer seasons over the land masses can be hotter. Also the oceans in the north near North America are warmer. One can see this on the example of the warm PDO (left):

Bastardi 1

Modes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, warm (left); cool (right. Source: jisao.washington.edu.

Notice the warmth near Alaska, yet the cool on the southern side of the globe near Antarctica. NOTICE THE TROPICS, THE NUMBER ONE SOURCE OF ENERGY TO DRIVE THE CLIMATE, are warm.  This adds more heat and moisture to the air, warming the atmosphere. It’s why we saw the rise in temperatures in the 1980s and 1990s.   In the cool version (right) the heat is where it had been cool earlier.  So the southern oceans around Antarctic are cool in a warm PDO, but warm in a cool PDO.

Look at the graphic of Antarctic ice below: it fits perfectly. At the start of the warm PDO around 1980, the ice was below normal, but the NATURAL cooling, compensating for warming in the tropics and north during the warm PDO, means the stage is set for the Antarctic ice increase:

Bastardi 2

Source: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu

Now look at a warm AMO example:

Bastardi 3

The Arctic’s exposure to the warm oceanic currents is much greater from the Atlantic side. This warm water moving toward the Arctic ocean obviously has a huge impact.

The deck is stacked to warm the northern hemisphere, jack up the global temps and shrink the Arctic ice. But at the start of the period, because the cold PDO and AMO together in the 1970s cooled the Arctic, the Arctic ice cap was way above normal.

Bastardi 4

Source: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu


Bingo, this is compensating cooling. So there is a cyclical distortion. The real key is measuring the water vapor, using temperatures is the wrong metric! Because without the amount of water vapor increasing, there can be no trapping. Co2 is 1/100th of the GHG and it’s likely that’s just about its influence on the entire shooting match of temps. It is estimated that the GHG blanket adds 33°C to the planet’s temperature. Co2 is boxed in at a range of 0.4 to 0.7 of that. It can do nothing because of all that is around it.

This explains perfectly the whole temperature pattern. Given the way we measure temperature, and the fact most of the warming has been in the Arctic in its cold season when there is little overall effect on the water vapor at such cold temperatures, it is highly likely that the subtle compensating cooling in the south over a much more moisture-laden atmosphere means there is no change in the true global temperature. What is happening now is that the atmosphere has adapted to the added warmth in the same way your shower room adapts to the turning on of a hot shower. So what happens when you turn off the shower (i.e. oceans flip their cycles)? It cools.

Bastardi 5

Notice the cooling in the Antarctic summer, limiting the ice melt season!

We are now in the period of “temperature leveling off”, where the atmosphere is readjusting from the previous increase in heat and moisture from the warmer cycles.

So here is the test we are in. I said in 2007 global temps would come down because of the shift in the PDO. Since 2005, its plain to see a slight downturn in a jagged fashion has started – just as I predicted 7 years ago:

Bastardi 6

The reason for the fewer, less intense El Ninos is because we are going back to the cycle of the colder PDO periods, plainly evident in the Multivariate Enso Index.

Bastardi 7

You can see the warm PDO and the major ENSO events that occurred when the globe warmed and the leveling off since then. Naturally, once the Atlantic flips, the global temps will return to where they were, as measured by satellite, at the start of the satellite era, which coincided with the START OF THE WARM PDO!

Its intuitive and natural…if you warm the tropical Pacific, you warm the temperature, but the compensating cooling is waiting in the longer term. That was my idea with the triple crown of climate back in 2007. The sun, the oceans, and stochastic events rule the climate.

So the test is on, and it doesn’t cost 165 billion dollars to justify an agenda (amount US has spent on climate change). It takes a working knowledge of where the climate has  gone in order to know where it is likely to go. Once the AMO flips to its cool phase, global temperatures will begin a descent much like the ascent we witnessed back in the 80s and 90s, which got us to our current plateau.

The Arctic is already showing, with the lack of ice melt this summer, what it will do once the AMO flips for good (in 5-10 years). It will recover. The global temperature will drop, but it will not be a drop representing a coming ice age or true cooling, just the cycle swinging back the other way. Meanwhile the Antarctic cap will retreat, eventually to levels seen in the 1970s and early 1980s.

If the southern ice cap does not shrink, then that will be a problem, but I have confidence it will.

When you are right, there are reasons. And when you are wrong there are often excuses, which is what you see from the people today who label the very people who said there is climate change (naturally) and made the correct forecast, as Deniers. The real danger to the globe is not global warming, it’s the global warming agenda. In a way, that is what the increase in the Antarctic ice cap shows you.

See Joe explain it here at the Saturday Summary.


“Endowed Professor” Larry Bell “Borrows” NoTricksZone Story, Forgets To Cite Sources

Anthony Watts has posted a story “written by” Larry Bell, who according to NewsMax is “a professor and endowed professor at the University of Houston, where he directs the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture and heads the graduate program in space architecture.”

Honestly speaking I don’t care how distinguished Prof. Larry Bell may be, or how distinguished others might think he is. In my book, I don’t think much of the character at all. In my view his piece automatically gets an “F” as a grade.

The reason is that he evidently thinks it is not necessary to cite sources and to give credit where credit is due. He appears to think it’s perfectly okay to copy and paste other people’s work and give readers the impression it’s all his very own.

On June 9th I posted a piece titled: Giant Of Geology/Glaciology Christian Schlüchter Refutes CO2…Feature Interview Throws Climate Science Into Disarray, which got a fair amount of attention, including Larry’s.

Eight days later, on June 17, he posted his “own” version at NewsMax. At the end of the story NewsMax even had the temerity to write: “© 2014 Newsmax. All rights reserved.”

Of course much of the story is Larry’s own. But the quotes of Prof. Schlüchter were translated from the original German to English by myself. Unlike Larry, I cited at least a half dozen times the German source. Larry on the other hand simply helped himself to my hard translation work, without citing it.

Maybe steps can be taken to change his thinking, and that of NewsMax’s.

In the future I’d appreciate if the good professor practiced proper academic behavior and cited his sources.

All he had to do was cite and add a link or two.


Renewable Energy Expert Fritz Vahrenholt Calls Germany’s Feed-In Act Obsolete…”On The Brink Of Failure”

Before he retired, Professor Fritz Vahrenholt was the CEO of RWE Innogy, the biggest investor of renewable energy. However during his time as CEO, he realized that the renewable energy systems did not live up the promises made by their manufacturers and promoters.

In the July 2014 edition of top agrar, a commentary by Fritz Vahrenholt on Germany’s renewable energy feed-in act (EEG) appeared:

From Die kalte Sonne
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Prof. Vahrenholt: The EEG feed-in subsidy is an obsolete model!

By Fritz Vahrenholt

Berlin has slammed the brakes on biogas. That is overdue. Biogas has distorted the farmland leasing prices, led to ecological damage and put a burden on private households and companies through high electricity prices. The EEG surcharge is at 24 billion euros. That’s 250 euros for every household. That’s why citizens are now looking at green energies far more critically.

And support will decrease when the costs rise further, when industry moves to regions where energy prices are more affordable, and when grid stability is no longer controllable due to the unstable supply from wind and sun.

No wonder economics minister Sigmar Gabriel sees the transition to renewable energy as on being on the brink of failure. Why are we installing in a country that gets as much sunshine as Alaska a photovoltaic capacity of 52,000 MW? Many systems are working only 800 full hours per year. But one year has 8760 hours! In the meantime we are producing at times so much green power that we have to pay money Austria, Netherlands, Poland and the Czech Republic to get rid of it for us. Our neighbors aren’t even happy about it because the surplus unwanted German green energy is making their own power production unprofitable.”

Continue reading [in German] at topagrar.com


Why Does The Solar Cycle NOT Show Up In Climate Data?

By Ed Caryl

Several researchers have noted that the 11-year solar cycle does not show up in temperature or precipitation data. Most recently, Dr. David Evans has introduced his “notch filter” answer to the problem. I think the answer is much simpler.

The solar influence on earth has several components. The Total Solar Insolation (TSI), varies over the 11-year solar cycle by about 0.1%. Solar UV varies by much more, up to 10%, but those wavelengths carry much less energy than TSI, and affect only the top of the atmosphere. The solar wind has little energy, but influences the cosmic ray influx. Other influx, such as Forbush Events, from Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s), have short term effects. These last two, the solar wind and Forbush Events, do not follow the solar cycle very closely, so tend not to show up in a time power spectrum of climate, or even of cosmic rays.

So why does the TSI cycle not show up in climate data? Because annual and daily changes completely drown out the signal. First, the earth’s orbit around the sun is not circular, but elliptical. We are closer to the sun during the northern hemisphere winter by 3.4% compared to the distance in the summer. Because the TSI varies by the square of the distance change, the change in TSI is 6.8% from summer to winter. This alone would make the 11-year 1% signal difficult to detect, but there are other, much large variations.


The earth is tilted on it’s axis by 23.5°. This causes a further variation in insolation even at the equator. At the equator, the annual variation is almost 12%, with the maximum occurring at the spring and fall equinoxes, and the minimum occurring on June 21st.

Figure 1: is the insolation seen at three different latitudes. Source here

At 40° latitude, this variation grows to over 100% around the average, and at 80° degrees, to over 200% around the average, including days of 24 hours of sunlight and more days of 24 hours of darkness.

Besides the large annual variations in insolation, there is the diurnal variation, night and day, with another signal that is nearly a square wave. But this isn’t all. The variation in clouds causes albedo changes that are nearly random, and imposed  on the above insolation curves. I say nearly random, because of solar effects on clouds due to changes in cosmic rays. But these effects have only small correlation with solar cycles.

So, a 0.1% TSI change on an 11-year cycle, is buried in the much larger annual orbital and axial tilt cycle, the diurnal cycle, as well as random albedo changes due to clouds. An analogy would be hearing the 50/60 Hertz power supply hum on your HiFi, while playing Tchaikovsky’s 1812 Overture, complete with cannons, at full volume.


The Greatest Nutritional And Pharmaceutical Swindle Of All Time…High Grain, Low Fat Diets Are Killing Us By The Millions

UPDATED. 11 May 2014, 1:39 PM CET

Off topic but for some readers this could be a real game-changer when it comes to your precious health.

I’ve been on a low-carb, high fat, lots of meat diet for about 6 weeks now. I’ve lost about 15 lbs. and my belt has moved to the last hole. I no longer get the bloated feeling and the trousers fit nicely again. My research on the best way to lose weight led me to the video below.

If even just half of what this doctor says is right, and I believe he is mostly right, then the population has been the victim of a huge nutritional and pharmaceutical scam of monumental proportions. It’s 90 minutes long but well worth listening…I couldn’t stop listening. THIS COULD CHANGE YOUR LIFE! The interview starts in earnest at the 7 min. mark.

Like the guy says at the end…what’s going on “is mind-blowing”. Like Dr. Davis says (like climate science) it’s going to take years to unravel the mess that the decades of disinformation has produced.

But wait, it all gets much much worse…the following presentation will blow your socks off!

Another expert, Dr. Sally Fallon, even calls it “genocide”. The tragedy is that millions have died horrible deaths at the hands of what I now believe to be a sinister industry…call it the abortion-of-adults industry. Again, all worth taking the time to watch.


Google Can’t Be Bothered To Acknowledge Easter, Celebrated By Hundreds Of Millions Worldwide

On other days, like Earth Day, Halloween, or holidays of other religions, we find Google putting up some kind of motive at their search page to mark the day.

Here’s what Google.de has today for Easter, which is celebrated by over a billion people worldwide:

Nothing, quite obviously.

In fact according to a comment from reader FrankSW below, Google has ignored Easter since 2000.

In the future we ought to keep in mind what Google thinks of practicing Christians.

Forget Google…HAPPY EASTER everybody!