Most climate models are worse than garbage, a number of real measurements, peer-reviewed studies and data show. Their phony results are mainly used to spread fear.
Models put out hyper-exaggerated fiction. Image: PIK.
The outputs of model simulations often get confused by the media and public as real measurement results. But often they are generated nefariously to promote panic.
Recall the pandemic models showing showing 100s of millions would die if we didn’t lockdown. In reality COVID 19 was no worse than a regular flu.
What follows are 61 NTZ posts from 2023 that show that climate model results have nothing to do with reality. Their outputs are garbage.
1. Typhoons are supposed to be getting more frequent and worse. They are not.
2. Sea levels rise is accelerating, models say. Fact: at many places they are falling.
3. It’s the hottest in 125,000 years. Wrong, e.g. it was fore example 4-7°C warmer in Austria 2000 years ago.
4. CO2 is the main driver. It is not. Models severely underestimate clouds.
5. Water vapor causes warming. But here’s a study that suggests the opposite.
6. CO2 leads to warming and drought. But the opposite is true: greening and cooling.
7. Winters in Tokyo are warming, the models tell us. But JMA data in fact show they are cooling.
8. Models show rapidly rising sea levels. But tide gauges and studies show it’s not true.
9. Models say Venice is gonna sink. It’s not happening, a study shows.
10. Models say that Holocene sea levels are higher than ever today. But mid-Holocene levels were 1-3 meters higher.
11. Models tell us the Pacific islands are sinking. However, real data show most are growing! GMSL datasets don’t all agree:
12. Island nations are in fact growing and not sinking and disappearing
13. Models suggest the Roman and Medieval periods were cooler than today. But they are warmer, study found.
14. Proxy data defy the models. Today, it’s colder than anytime in the last 10,000 years.
15. Cyclone and rainfall data show the models are wrong.
16. Models say CO2 is a powerful green house gas. But a study says 7000 ppm warms planet only 0.3°C!
17. India is not sinking, no matter what the models try to suggest.
18. Greenhouse effect is declining, according to measurements by scientists.
19. Tropical islands are, in reality, growing. Models are fiction.
20. The North Pole was a whopping 22°C warmer 30,000 years ago.
21. The sun is the main driver, and not CO2. Models need to be revamped.
22. The climate models couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. Off 100 fold.
23. A recent study shows that atmospheric CO2 cools the Arctic. Hello! The climate is an extremely complex system.
24. Models say it’s hotter than ever today because of CO2. But 10,000 years ago, Arctic was ice free.
25. More ice than every today near the Thwaites “Doomsday” Glacier. And here.
26. Models say the warmer it is, the more storms. But the data tell us there’s a greater hurricane frequency when it’s COLDER.
27. More wildfires because of CO2, the models tell us. But wildfires have fallen.
You’d think modelers would get tired of being so wrong all the time. But funding keeps them happily lying.
28. The models are making great strides, right? Not so. They were better even in 1984!
29. Models have warned that precipitation trends would intensify. But reality show the opposite is true.
30. Simulations also say that Greenland is melting down. But a recent study shows that show and ice in the 1930s is comparable to today.
31. Models say CO2 is the climate forcing. But a recent study finds a doubling leads to only 0.6°C of warming and that the models neglect the laws of physics.
32. German models simulating ground moisture are “designed to produce artificial panic,” said meteorologist Kai Zorn.
33. Two more studies here defying models sea level rise predictions and claims.
34. A new study shows that climate models simply lack the resolution that necessary to make them useful. Also see chart by Legates:
35. Climate simulations predict global boiling. But 5 recent studies show there’s been no warming since the 1700s!
36. More drought, the models have claimed. But the real data tell us another story: No trend since 1902.
37. Despite the model predictions and recent dry years. The data show there’s been no drought trend in Germany since 1881.
38. Four more studies telling us model predictions of “global warming” are rubbish.
39. More forest fires, suggested the hocus pocus models. But the trend in Canada has been down over the past decades. Also globally:
40. Models like to ignore the urban heat island (UHI) effect. But much warming appears to be caused by asphalt and other construction materials.
41. Models refuse to properly weight the sun as a factor, which could account for 87% of the warming. See peer-reviewed new study
42. The models have falsely predicted Pacific typhoon formation trends.
43. Here’s another study suggesting the models are woefully miscalibrated. Natural climate drivers dominate.
44. Models forget to tell us that other planets without man are warming too.
45. Of course, the models do not take fudging, alterations, infilling, sloppiness into account. Part of warming last 150 years due to measurement station siting changes.
46. Again another study telling us CO2 isn’t the driver, “only affects a small range of long-wave re-radiation from the surface of the Earth,”… “seems to be no connection between carbon dioxide and the temperature of the Earth.” − Harris, 2023
47. This study tells us that trace gases do not impact the climate like the models say they do.
48. German agrarheute.com asks whether the climate models are wrong since “East Pacific has been cooling down more and more over the past 30 years” and this “contrary to all predictions”.
49. The models refuse to acknowledge the sun, even though the data is glaring. “Solar forcing may have a 4 to 7 times greater effect on climate change than current climate models indicate.”
50. The Arctic has stopped losing sea ice and been steady over the past 15 years, unlike what the models had told. And take a look at these wild “model-based” predictions of the past:
What were they smoking!
51. Remember how the models predicted Greenland would melt rapidly and cause sea levels to rise by meters? Well, since 1992, it has only contributed 1.2 CENTIMETERS!
52. Oops, also volcanic activity got neglected by the models too.
53. Two Portuguese scientists (Khmelinskii and Woodcock, 2023) identify at least 8 assumptions in the “greenhouse gas hypothesis” that lack scientific validation. Models can’t work if the assumptions are grossly false.
54. Models got the aerosol forcings wrong too. ..10 times larger.
55. Antarctica has cooled. Models are wrong on that, too.
56. Models have been failing for 4 decades. Remember above how we remarked they worked better in the 1980s.
57. Modern sea ice extent is nearly the highest it’s been in 9000 years.
58. The rise of CO2 over the past 120 years hasn’t really altered the greenhouse effect. Someone tell the modelers.
59. A new paper finds that the models have it backwards: warming drives CO2!
60. Definitely today is NOT the warmest its been in 125,000 years, not even 10,000 years.
61. German Helmholtz UFZ ground moisture models insist the ground is still dry, even after weeks of heavy rains and floods.
And finally, recall how the models contradict each other on almost everything. Here are over 2 dozen examples:
You’d have to be a real sucker or a journalist to believe any climate model output. They are nowhere near simulating anything that is remotely close to reality.
Have a Happy 2024!
Your NTZ
With deep gratitude, Pierre. I have been reading the articles you faithfully present to the readers of your blog – since I learned about you, and from you, at WattsUpWithThat in the “early days”. Your dedication and integrity are admirable. I send a gift of gratitude and wish you a Happy New Year.
God Bless you .. you’re a stalwart
This article is filled with inaccuracies and speculation, including the completely false statement:
“14. Proxy data defy the models. Today, it’s colder than anytime in the last 10,000 years.”
We do not need inaccurate local proxy data when real time temperatures have been measured in the past century
The last half of 2023 was the warmest six months in the instrument records
While instrument temperature data should not be compared with proxy data … the proxy data we have for the past 5000 years, assuming a reasonable margin of error, can not prove any century was warmer than the past decade. And certainly not warmer than the past six months
The Holocene Climate Optimum probably had six month periods that were warmer than the past six months, but that is my speculation, not a proven fact
Much more important is the huge anti-model, anti-CO2 causes warming bias, at this website
Models produce predictions based on assumptions. Plug in worst case assumptions and you get worst case predictions
It’s my opinion that no real climate models exists. All we have are computer games that predict whatever the owners want predicted. The owners were making wild guesses about the futire climate before they programmed their computer games to make the same predictions. Only the Russian INM model seems to try to make an accurate prediction. But even that is most likely a lucky guess. Not enough is known abot climate science to predict the future climate correctly.
In fact, the models from the 1970s, as a group, have done an excellent job so far with their 70 year predictions. But only when using the reasonable RCP 4.5 CO2 grwoth rate scenario.
The 70 year prediction with RCP 4.5 calls for roughly half the warming rate as the much publicized 400 year RCP 8.5 prediction.
While one could say the 400 years / 8,5 predicts twice the warming rate that we’ve had so far, the 70 year RCP 4.5 prediction has been surprisingly accurate in the first 50 years of a 70 year forecast. Leftists have used that fact to promote their beloved models. But then they ONLY publicize 400 year predictions using RCP 8.5, which include CO2 warming amplification of most of their worst case water vapor positive feedback assumptions (that develop over hundreds of years)..
I consider the 70 year RCP 4.5 prediction to be a lucky guess. But it could be more than that
Using the HITRAN databases of CO2 and water vapor spectroscopy data, the global warming since 1975 could be explained by CO2 rising and a mild water vapor positive feedback. Nothing else.
Of course this prediction, which nearly matches the actual warming since 1975, would not scare anyone. That’s why the IPCC publicizes their 400 years RCP 8.5 prediction. They are a political organization set up to scare people on behalf of leftist governments
Due Diligence:
I have opposed climate scaremongering since 1997
I oppose Nit Zero and electric vehicles
I favor MORE CO2 in the air for better plant growth
I favor more global warming especially here in Michigan USA, which should apply to Germany and the UK too.
Warm is good
Cold is bad.
I have used climate and energy blogs to publicize good climate and energy articles by conservative authors. Over 687,000 page views so far. Not this article, however,
https://honestclimatescience.blogspot.com/
Richard wanted not post here anymore.
Richard not have read original article for when he say “completely false statement”?
No see he written something in original post.
what are other points he no like?
He no gives credit, he only negative. Why?
Pierre, thanks for all your work over the past few years. You have helped me understand not just climate but diabetes as well.
Excellent work again Pierre also thanks to Kenneth Richard’s brilliant articles as well.
Its pretty safe to say any warming apart from all the temp manipulations and contortions going on, is due to increasing SLR due to changes in cloud cover. Add to that the vast majority of increased CO2 is purely natural and not man made.