Blimey! Skeptical Science Admits Current Decade Running 0.053°C Cooler Than Last Decade!

I got an e-mail from an NTZ reader who brought a recent post at Skeptical Science to my attention. Normally I don’t read reality-denial, end-of-world theorist sites. But in this case I had to make an exception. In general, for once, it’s even worth reading.

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Climate Bet for Charity, 2013 Update

Posted on 27 November 2013 by Rob Honeycutt

A couple of years ago I happened upon a German “climate contrarian” website called NoTricksZone run by Pierre Gosselin.  While reading through one particular post I made an off-hand comment that I’d never found a skeptic who would put their money where their mouth is related to climate.

Well, Pierre took that as a challenge and we got together to create a gentleman’s climate bet with proceeds going to a charity of the winner’s choice.  (Correction: As Tom points out in the commens the terms state, “…the charity organisation is yet to be chosen, but will (1) be one that both sides agree on, (2) help children in dire need (3) have low overhead and (4) be international.”) That was back in early 2011.  It became the Climate Bet for Charity, subtext: “Will  the next 2011-2020 decade be warmer than the previous 2001 – 2010 decade?”

Continue reading here.

Couple of notes. Rob Honeycutt writes:

I pulled up the UAH and RSS lower tropospheric anomalies through WoodForTrees.org and did the calculations myself.  Sure enough, the average of UAH and RSS for the 2001-2010 decade comes out at 0.226C.  The current 2011-present decade is running at 0.173C.  That’s 0.053C below the last decade, based on, yes, three years of data.  So, they actually do have this much correct.”

And even if the current decade ended up being slightly warmer, it would still mean CO2 sensitivity is seriously exaggerated.

Next Rob blames the start-point (which he agreed with from the beginning) for being one of the reasons they are behind in the bet. He also writes:

In fact, since we’re averaging so few data points in the early phase of the of the chart, it’s going to be mostly just noise.  It doesn’t tell us anything meaningful at all.

I suppose if the data for the current decade were running warmer, you would not be hearing any “just noise” talk from Rob.

Rob then tries a few other statistical games before ultimately concluding that, under the bottom line, temperatures haven’t been rising like they were expected to.

Next Rob gives his opinion on who he feels is doing the better job measuring global temperature:

 I’m now of the personal opinion that GISS is likely the most accurate data set being that it has the greatest coverage for the Arctic, where we’re seeing the greatest warming.”

Arctic measurement has serious issues, as ED Caryl has just written at NTZ. I get the feeling he wishes he regrets agreeing to using RSS and UAH data to settle the bet. In the end, he does maintain a positive attitude, doing his best to exude confidence:

My own best guess is, barring a major low latitude volcanic event before 2020, there is a >95% chance that this decade will end up being warmer than the last. Physics is on our side.  You just can’t add 2.3Watts/mof man-made radiative forcing (source) to the climate system and believe the planet is not going to warm.

Strangely those theoretical 2.3 W/sqm and his brand of physics mysteriously have not produced any warming in 15 years….except, that is, “somewhere” in the depths of the oceans.

Finally, to support his theories of global warming physics, Rob writes:

Note that the decade of 1991-2000 was 0.139C warmer than 1981-1990, and the decade of 2001-2010 was 0.204C warmer than 1991-2000.”

Suddenly Rob completely forgets about the oceans. :)

 

Honeycutt-Nuccitelli Climate Bet Progress Report…So Far New Decade Is Cooler Than The Last…Ready To Concede?

To mark the start of the new decade, NoTricksZone and its readers made a climate bet (see right side bar) against two warmists from Skeptical Science: Rob Honeycutt and Dana Nuccitelli (and others). Also see update-5. The warmists are pledging more than $14,000.00!

Rob overall has been a good sport and is a pleasure to deal with. Dana, on the other hand, has been, shall we say, a bit abrasive.

Climate Bet Graph_Robin Pittwood

The coolists are clearly in the lead. Chart by Robin Pittwood – Kiwi Thinker

The bet is on whether or not the current 2011-2020 decade would be warmer or cooler than the previous 2001-2010 decade. NTZ and its readers say it will be cooler or the same. Messieurs Honeycutt and Nuccitelli say it’s going to get warmer for sure. After all, man is spewing more CO2 into the atmosphere than ever. The money won will be donated to a charity for children in need.

Almost two and half years have now passed and I think it’s a good time to see how the bet is coming along. Thanks to Robin Pittwood and his Kiwi Thinker blog, we now have preliminary results for the first 2 years and 5 months.

Clearly in the chart above we see that the current decade is running a bit cooler than the last one. In fact, temperatures haven’t warmed in 15 years.

Of course it’s still early and nobody really knows what tricks Mother Nature could play. But Rob and Dana really should be scratching their heads, though. Okay, the bet was made before they found out that oceans eat up warming. Indeed it is warming, they insist, but the cooling is just covering it up! You just wait…the warming will be back, they keep saying. And when it comes back, it’ll be for real. Besides, cooling is caused by warming anyway. Right?

Problem is, nobody knows when the warming will be back. Even the Prince of Global Warming Darkness himself, Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber of the Palace of Doom and Gloom in Potsdam recently said the warming may be delayed even another decade. Doesn’t look good, Rob and Dana.

Like I wrote, it’s remotely possible that it will warm a bit this decade, and maybe Rob and Dana could even eke out a victory. But will a few hundredths or even a tenth of a degree be enough?

Not really because of the model projections are rising much faster and the divergence between observed temperature and model projections will be more glaring than ever. Even if the two do pull off an upset, it’ll be a hollow victory. They’ll still have lost the science argument, which is all about sensitivity. By the end of the decade, it could be that we will not have seen any significant warming in over 22 years.

73-models-vs-obs Roy Spencer

Temperature would have to jump 0.4°C in the next 7 years just to be at the lower range of the model projections. Chart: www.drroyspencer.com/

To be on the safe side, I’ve asked Robin Pittwood to disclose his calculations and the data he used to produce his non-hockey stick chart.

First he told me he had lost the data, then he told me that it was private property and that I was not privy to it. Next he said it was not covered by the Freedom of Information Act, and so he didn’t have to provide it. He also asked why he should provide it to me if my sole aim was just to find something wrong with it. Then he said I had to be a scientist to see it. During all of this he told the press that I was just a hack of Big Oil and the coal industry. But I never relented, and so he eventually coughed it up. /sarc :)

Robin’s Excel table here.

Thanks Robin!

 

Coolists 3 – Warmists 0

Global temperatures continue their overall stagnation that has taken hold over the last decade or so, and have plummeted over the last three months, defying the global warming alarmists predictions of a temperature spiral as CO2 emissions continue to rise.

Roy Spencer just released the UAH MSU March global lower troposphere temperature data. Here’s the trend over the last 10 years for sea surface temperature:

Source: http://www.drroyspencer.com/ (Here, March data not included)

 Co2 driving the climate is a joke, a ruse – tantamount to saying Mexico drives the world economy. Sure it is a factor, but a small one. When I look at all the people running around with CO2 reduction as their new religion, I just shake my head. Duped! What a con-job.

This brings up our Climate Bet here with warmist Rob Honeycutt, who boldly bet $5000 that the 2011-2020 decade will be even warmer than the previous 2001-2010 decade. So far the first three months of the new decade are slam dunks for the COOLIST column, and have opened up an early lead 3 – o.

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 0.036 -0.372
2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 0.002 -0.348
2011 03 -0.099 -0.073 -0.126 -0.345

The status of the bet has not changed since the last update here.

Sure there are still another 117 months to go before the bet is concluded, but I’m not in hurry for these months to pass by. So far ocean cycles are showing that they run the place, and not a trace gas. As the negative PDO takes hold and AMO heads south, more cooling is in the pipeline. The weak solar cycle also bodes ill for the warmists.

That cracking noise you hear is not the spring ice beaking up – it’s the sound of AGW science breaking apart.

Climate Bet Of The Decade Update 5

I’m a little overdue with the climate bet (FOR CHARITY) update. But here it is.

This bet is also known as the Honeycutt Climate Bet for Charity, named after Rob Honeycutt who first proposed this bet. You can find the background info here.

The cool side takes an early lead!

Will the new 2011-2020 decade be warmer or cooler than the last one? The first month, January – 2011,  came in well below the 2001-2010 average. Call it a 3-pointer for the coolists – a message to the warmists! We’ve taken the early lead. And looking at the La Nina that’s taken hold, that early lead will certainly grow. Is it going to be a blowout?

It’s a long ballgame though – 119 more months! Here are the bets so far (I hope I haven’t left anyone off the list. If so, let me know and I’ll repost the table).

The cool side bets so far:

Also add reader Mathhu ($100) to the above list. New total $5550.

And the warm side bets:

The warmists, though small in number, are indeed a generous bunch.

So far we (both sides) have pledged over $19,000.00. So no matter who wins, some good will come out of this.

 

Climate Bet Of The Decade – Update 4

PDO how entering the cool phase. Will it cool the planet in the decades ahead?

Will the new 2011-2020 decade be warmer or cooler than the last one?

That’s what we’re betting on (FOR CHARITY).

This bet is also known as the Honeycutt Climate Bet for Charity, after Rob Honeycutt who first proposed this bet. You can find the entire background here.

First of all Charles Zeller has also pledged $5,000 for the warm side, and has already paid half of it to Doctors Without Borders. So whatever happens from now on, I will consider that this blog has led to some kind of succees in that it has played a role in leading to this generous donation. The money will no doubt alleviate much pain and suffering among those of us who happened to be born in unfortunate economic and social conditions. It may even save a life or more. So hats off to Charles.

If you wish to join the Climate Bet of the Decade, i.e. Honeycutt Climate Bet For Charity, click here to see how. It’s real easy: just leave a reader comment and I’ll put your name, e-mail address, and amount on a list. That’s it. You’ll appear in the next update.

Here’s the latest list. I have to admit that the warmists, though small in number, are a generous bunch.

They have pledged over $14,000.00 so far. The coolists have also made a good number of pledges, and have in fact far surpassed all my earler expectations. No matter who wins, some good will surely come out of this.

The cool side: (I hope my math is correct).

And the warm side:

If you wish to up your bet, just say so. If you wish to cancel it, well there I can’t help you. Pledged is pledged! :)

He’s Lost It. Romm Has Reduced Himself To Telling Opponents To Meet Him After School

Joe Bastardi stays classy. (Photo credit: Accuweather)

There’s nothing wrong with a friendly bet among gentlemen. I’d like to think that Rob Honeycutt and NoTricksZone had a difference of opinion, and so we decided to cordially shake hands on it like two gentlemen would. No one tried to drag the other through the mud.

But what we see at Joe Romm’s Climate Progress here is something totally different. Irked by growing public skepticism and statements made by Joe Bastardi on why he thinks the globe is starting to cool, Romm just couldn’t take it anymore. Frustrated, he lashes out.

Like a schoolyard bully who has just lost his best marbles, he calls Joe Bastardi out to the schoolyard to settle it once and for all, publicly taunting and singling out Joe Bastardi to meet him out there to duke it out in a climate bet. Romm has clearly reduced himself to a sort of schoolyard climate punk, thinking he can drag people through the mud and settle things that way. Clearly he has long exhausted his professional means. 

Romm, you blew it; you’ve shown you got no class acting like that. Twelve-year olds can act like that, but not professionals.

Maybe some other punk in your neighborhood will show up for your classless bet, but Bastardi isn’t coming for it. He’s got something maybe you had long ago – CLASS.

Joe Bastardi has left his response at his European Website here. And he’s right; this is not about meeting out in the schoolyard to settle scores. Things will be settled in time, scientifically, professionally. That’s why I tell the cock-sure warmists…be patient, things will unfold. Qué será, será.

And Bastardi asks what I think is the key question:

But what will you do if it goes down? Will you actually stop your obsession with destroying those that disagree with you and shutting down debate? Can we get your committment to that? If it goes up, I will be forced to become an advocate for your position, which if I am proven wrong, I will. I rather doubt the vast majority of people opposed to me will open their eyes even if we went into a mini ice age, as some have opined. In the end, there is the difference. I am not guided by blind faith, but faith formed from the foundation of facts on past events. If the facts prove me wrong, then I will be guided by what I know to be is right.”

The answer to the above question depends on how much class these people have. So far, it looks like they don’t have much. Joe says that if the temperature rises in the next 10 years, he’ll change his position, not because of losing, but because of what obsrvation and science say. But Bastardi accepts the challenge, like a gentleman with class would.

But at the very least, the challenge has been accepted, and you can keep your money. What you need to do is be rich enough in your heart to open your mind to other ideas, and if need be, like me, change if you are proven wrong over the coming years.

Given what I have experienced so far, it’s much easier to believe the globe will cool than people actually admit it is doing so, no matter what.”

I hope that Joe Bastardi didn’t let Romm get under his skin too much. His reply was too long, meaning he spent too much time responding to a classless person that deserves to be ignored.

Overall in this preliminary wrestling match, Bastardi just pinned his opponent in about 6 seconds flat.

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Update: Romm needs to spend less time in the schoolyard, and more time in the math classroom. http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/romm-math-fail/

Let The Betting Begin! Other Blogs Following NoTricksZone’s Lead

Joe Romm wants to bet, too! (Photo credit: americanprogress.org)

A reader has pointed out that Rob Honeycutt and NoTricksZone appear to have started a trend: Climate Bets For Charity. Here at NTZ, the warmists have entered in a bet (for charity) with the coolists on whether the 2011-2020 decade will be warmer or cooler.

Climate Bet Of The Decade For Charity

Now other blogs are following. It’s the new motto now spreading in climate science:

Either put up, or shut up!”

The latest bet out there is from the outspoken Joe Romm of Climate Progress, who offers to bet Joe Bastardi on temperature and Arctic ice melt. Glad to see he wants to settle it that way, and not through a wrestling match (though the result may very well end up being the same).

Romm’s proposal is very similar to our bet here at NTZ.

In the temperature bet, Romm wants to use the 2000-2009 period instead of the 2001-2010, thus moving the high temperature year of 2010 into his column. His bet is also for charity and insists using the average of RSS and UAH – as we are doing.

But Joe Romm is adding an escape clause: If 2 Pinatubo-size volcanoes erupt, then the bet is off. Such confidence!

I haven’t checked to see what Joe Bastardi’s reaction is. I think he’ll accept both bets. Go for it Bastardi! Unfortunately it’s going to take 10 years to shut this Romm loudmouth up.

Joe Romm seems awfully cocky. I wonder if he has the guts to make a sea level bet. That’s the issue where warmist blow the most hot air, yet are most afraid of touching. What do you say Romm? 5 mm/year over the next decade? That’s way below what Gore and the PIK in Germany are forcasting.

Don’t hold your breath.

Another blog has also got into the climate betting for charity action, but on a more modest scale. Georg Hoffmann here is betting 100 € that 2011 Arctic sea ice extent will reach a record low (NSIDC). Also an attractive bet for coolists.

If all this keeps up, then it won’t be necessary to make up a global warming scare for redistributing global wealth. Looks like the betting is going to care of that itself.

Climate Bet Of The Decade – Update 3

Headed back into the cool phase.

Will the new 2011-2020 decade be warmer or cooler than the last one?

That’s what we’re betting on.

The warmists are betting it’s going to be warmer. But the coolists say it will be cooler because of natural cycles, which are now beginning to have a cooling effect. Here’s why I feel us coolists are going to win:

1. CO2 is wildly exaggerated as a climate driver.
2. The PDO has entered it’s negative phase – meaning more La Ninas in the pipeline.
3. Solar activity is low.
4. The AMO is also about to head towards its negative phase.
5. We are overdue for a disruptive volcano.
6. A growing number of scientists say so.

The following is the latest list of pledges (user names and amounts in US$) in alphabetical order. Newcomers are welcome! (See below on how to bet). Amounts are in US dollars.

Coolist side
Agran, N.  100
ArndB     25
Asim   70
BargHumer    10
Callander, P.   50
Caryl, E.     10
Dawson, B      5
de Haan, R.    10
de Waal, V.   50
Eiting, M.    50
Evans, V.      50
Gosselin, P.    200
Grayman    100
Ike   100
Johnson, D.    20
Kaminsky, R.    100
Levett, J.  100
Neil M   1000
Roger L    50
Scotchman    70
speake   10
Stoller, F.  100
Whale, P.  50

Total: $ 2,330.00

Warmist side
dana skepticalscience.com    100
Dappledwater    100
Honeycutt, Rob    1,830.00
King, Neal J    100
Sacculina     200

Total: $2,330.00

All winnings will be donated to a charity organisation for children in dire need, yet to be decided. Right now we are tending to Doctors Without Borders.

This bet by the way is named after the initiator: warmist Rob Honeycutt, who has pledged to match all the bets from the cool side, up to $5000.00, and is happy about the money from the losers going to charity (That’s very generous of him :)). I’ve been in e-mail contact with Rob, and he really is a good guy. He means well.

And if the cool side can get that many pledges from the coolists, then Rob will start looking for more warmists to join in to up the ante. Let’s see how high we can get this.

Payment will be made 2021, and so if you think inflation and/or lack of interest paid, etc. will erode the amount, then just add a little more to your pledge. Again, we want to keep it simple.

If you are interested in joining this bet, you can read how to:

JOIN THE CLIMATE BET FOR CHARITY 

It’s very uncomplicated. Just leave a comment making your pledge, and I’ll put your user name, e-mail address and amount on a list. That’s it! We’ll come knocking at your door in 2021 (if you lose). And hey – it’s for a good cause.

The coming decade is going to settle the science

In fact, it may take only a few years. Here’s the life-story of the AGW scare:

1980s: AGW scare was born.
1990s: AGW scare lived.
2000s: AGW scare was killed.
2010s: AGW scare will be buried.

The oceans are cooling, and cold winters are returning, which is bad news for the planet. We’d be much better off with another one or two degrees of warming. The latest tree ring study we saw in Science clearly shows that warm is better. I hope that us coolists lose this bet. But I doubt we will.

Honeycutt Climate Bet For Charity – Update 2

Will the 2011-2020 decade be warmer or cooler than the last one?

That’s the bet.

The warmists are cock-sure it’s going to be warmer. The coolists say: not likely! If you are interested in joining this bet, you can read how to:

JOIN THE CLIMATE BET FOR CHARITY 

It’s very uncomplicated. Just leave a comment making your pledge, and I’ll put your user name, e-mail address and amount on a list. That’s it! We’ll come knocking at your door in 2021 (if you lose). And hey – it’s for a good cause.

All winnings will be donated to a charity organisation for children in dire need, yet to be decided.

Here’s the latest list of pledges so far (user names and amounts in US$) in the order they came in. If you want to make changes, just let me know. Newcomers are welcome! Amounts are in US dollars. The $1000 pledged by Neil M is genuine.

The Cool Side
1. speake  $10
2. Ed Caryl  10
3. R. de Haan  10
4. Mindert Eiting  50
5. BargHumer  10
6. Ike  100
7. Scotchman  70
8. B. D.  5
9. ArndB  25
10. Freddie Stoller  100
11. Asim 70
12. Norman Agran  100
13. Neil M  1000 
14. Peter Whale  50               
15. Ross Kaminsky  100
16. Vita de Waal  50        
17. P Gosselin  200

Total $1960.00

The Warm Side
1. Rob Honeycutt $ 1760.00
2. dana (skepticalscience.com) 100
3. Dappledwater 100

Total: $ 1,960.00

Please note that Rob Honeycutt has pledged to match all the bets from the cool side, up to $5000.00. That’s very generous of him. And if we can get that many pledges from the coolists, then he’ll start looking for more (gullible :) ) warmists to join in to up the ante. Let’s see how high we can get this.

Payment will be made 2021, and so if you think inflation and/or lack of interest paid, etc. will erode the amount, then please just add a little more to your pledge. Again, we want to keep it simple.

I’ve also added a permanent page for the bet, see side-bar, and have a new category called Climate Bet For Charity where you’ll find all posts, updates, etc. related to this bet.

There’s a lot more room for more bets. Hope more will join in on the fun and excitement for a good cause.  Thanks!

Honeycutt Climate Bet For Charity – Update 1

Will the 2011-2020 decade be warmer or cooler?

Here’s the first update on how the Honeycutt Climate Bet For Charity is going so far.

Not bad I’d say.

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UPDATE 1: The pledges are coming in. Neil M has just pledged $1000! I’m assuming this is a good-faith pledge, and no reason to doubt it. We are now getting close to the $2000 mark!!
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The bet is: will the 2011-2020 decade be warmer or cooler than the last one?

I’ve decided to call it the Honeycutt Climate Bet For Charity because the whole thing was initiated by Rob Honeycutt (robhon) here. Lately I’ve had a couple of e-mail exchanges with Rob, and I have to say that he’s genuinely a good guy. I have no doubt he is serious about this bet. And he expressed his gratitude that it’s for a good cause.

If you are interested in joining this bet, you can read about it here. It’s very uncomplicated. Just leave a comment making your pledge, and I’ll put your user name, e-mail address and amount on a list. That’s it! We’ll come knocking in 2021.

All winnings will be donated to a charity organisation for children in dire need, yet to be decided.

Here’s the list of pledges so far. If you want to make changes, just let me know. Newcomers are welcome! Amounts are in US dollars.

The Cool Side
1.       P Gosselin              $100   
2.       speake                         10
3.       Ed Caryl                      10
4.       R. de Haan                  10
5.       Mindert Eiting           50
6.       BargHumer                10
7.       Ike                               20
8.       Scotchman                 70
9.       B. D.                               5
10.     ArndB                         25
11.     Freddie Stoller         100
12.     Asim                            70
13.     Norman Agran        100

Total $ 580.00

The Warm Side
  1. Rob Honeycutt                           $ 380
  2. dana (skepticalscience.com)         100
  3. Dappledwater                                100

Total: $ 580.00

Please note that Rob Honeycutt says he is ready to match all the bets from the cool side, up to $5000.00. That’s very generous of him.

Also, payment will be made once the bet is decided, i.e. 2021. If you think inflation and/or lack of interest paid, etc. will erode the amount, then please just add a little more to your pledge. Again, we want to keep it simple.

There’s a lot more room for more bets. Hope more will join. Thanks.

Know Your Opponent – Climate Bet Warmist Believes In The Hockey Stick

The price of bad science.

First off, I want to thank the readers who have joined in on the CLIMATE BET whereby the winnings will be donated to a charity for children in dire need, yet to be decided.

So far us 11 coolists have bet $300 in total that 2011 – 2020 will be cooler than the last decade.

It seems that our warmist opponent “Robhon” has mustered the courage and revealed his name: Rob Honeycutt. I ask myself where could all that cockiness and confidence come from?

Turns out he’s a regular at the warmist blogs, like Skeptical Science. Anyone that spends time with such sources of “information” undoubtedly will develop the beliefs that he now holds. In fact I found a post Honeycutt wrote himself at Skeptical Science called:

Kung fu climate.

He really believes in that hockey stick. I wonder if he really knows what he is getting himself into with this bet – he has committed $5000! I have no reason to doubt that he is serious about it and that he will pay if he loses. But that’s a lotta money. Either you have to be very rich, or cock-sure you’re gonna win.

The next decade is likely going to teach him a lot about climate science. We’ll see how cocky he’ll be in 10 years. It could be that it will get warmer. But if it does, it will not be because of a few molecules more of a trace gas. No, the odds are that it’s going to cool. As we have seen, more and more scientists are expecting cooling. The ocean cycles have reversed, and so the climate has begun to do the same in tow. The sun is sleepy too.

My bet with a similar warmist five years ago

Exactly five years ago I also made a bet with a warmist who also was cock-sure it was going to get warmer. Like Rob, this person was convinced that man was heating up the planet. But I told him it was mostly due to natural causes, and that we’d see cooling in the years ahead. So we bet as follows:

If the average temperature for the next five years (2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010) is warmer than the average of 2005, then I lose the bet. But if the average of 2005 is warmer then the next five years, then I win the bet.

The amount: If it cooled, then he would pay me 6 bottles of red, dry wine. If it warmed, then I would have to give him 6 bottles of Scottish whiskey (I like a fair bet).

Back then we did not stipulate which dataset to use to decide the winner. But I think using the average of all four, i.e. UAH MSU, RSS, GISS, and HadCrut, would be the way to go.

I haven’t run through the calculations in detail, but I see a slight downward trend. The 2010 El Nino made it really close, but was not enough in the end. As you can see the 2007/2008 El Nino ruined the warming trend (damn models didn’t see that).

Some people have to learn the hard way. Glass of red wine anyone?

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UPDATE: I don’t want to give the impression that Rob Honeycutt is impolite or anything. He has a view and he rightfully asserts it. So far he has been very polite and cordial here. As I mentioned, I’m just impressed by his confidence.

UPDATE  2: The warmist has conceded defeat (2005 was warmer than the 2006-2010 average) and I have  gotten my bottles of wine. I expect a similar outcome in 2021.

Warmist Daringly Bets $5000 That 2011-2020 Decade Will Be Even Warmer

The losing side will have to pay up to $5000 to a children's charity,

Warmist and NTZ observer “Robhon” has daringly entered a bet for US $5000 with NTZ and NTZ  readers that the next decade 2011 – 2020 will be warmer on average than the previous 2001 – 2010 decade.

Last update click here.

NTZ and NTZ readers say it will be cooler, or the same.

The loser of the bet will have to pay the amount to a charity for children in dire need, such as Children Hospice International.

The charity orgnaisation will have to be international, support children in dire need and at the same time have low overhead costs.

We want to thank Robhon for accepting this sporting challenge, which is for a good cause. Win or lose – everyone wins.

So far NTZ and readers have pledged about $300.00 (5 Jan 2011), betting that the earth will be cooler or at the same temperature on average over the next 10 years. We would like to get that amount up to the maximum of $5000 that Robhon has committed. Robhon also mentioned that he may find others willing to put their money where their mouths are.

The bet 

If the decade of 2011 – 2020 is cooler or the same on average globally than the decade of 2001 – 2010, then warmist Robhon will pay to charity the total amount this pledged by NTZ and readers until February 1, 2011. The target is $5K.

If the average global temperature for the decade 2011 – 2020 is warmer than the average of 2001 – 2010, then NTZ and readers will pay everything we pledged to the charity.

Which dataset?

It has been agreed to use both a composite of RSS and UAH lower troposphere temperature – close to the earth’s surface. The result will be accepted without quibbling, as it is agreed that it’s the best we’ve got.

How and when to pay?

Payment will be made when the bet is settled, i.e. 2021, or possibly earlier if it’s clear who the winner will be, but only with mutual agreement.

Right now I am only gathering the pledges and putting your username, e-mail address and amount pledged on a list. So if us coolists win, then we will not have to pay. Robhon on the other hand will have to pay an amount that equals the total that us coolists pledged – up to 5000 (five thousand) dollars. If us coolists lose, then each person will have to pay directly to the chosen charity organisation. Even if us coolists lost, I would still make the contribution anyway, simply because I think it’s for a good cause.

You will be asked to pay when the bet is settled, i.e. 2021.

Where, when and how do I make my pledge?

You can pledge by leaving a comment. I will put your username and email address and amount on a list. I will post the list from time to time (without e-mail address of course). Please make your pledges before March 1, 2011.

WHICH CHARITY GETS THE MONEY?

As mentioned above, the charity organisation will be (1) one that both sides agree on, (2) helps children in dire need (3) have low overhead costs so the money really helps and (4) be international.

What happens if the loser doesn’t pay?

If the loser of the bet refuses to pay, then he will be forever regarded as a useless deadbeat loudmouth scumbag with no honour. Ed and Juraj have the bucket of tar and a sack of feathers ready. They will not hesitate to tar and feather anyone – warmist or coolist!

How will we control if someone pays?

I have a list, and somehow we will get a statement from the charity organisation confirming that payment was indeed made.

What if something happens to me and I can’t pay?

Not your fault. You’ll be simply taken off the list and you will be remembered as a generous and honourable person.

So please pledge a nominal amount!

I hope that more readers here will pledge some money for this bet. Again it would be nice to have Robhon pay the full $5000 he has committed, and so I need to get as many pledges as possible. Minimum is $10.

So what is it going to be? Cooler, or warmer?

The bet is on!

Will The New Decade Be Warmer Than The Last One?

This blog here is not a casino for high rollers. In fact, it’s not a casino at all. Yet, one warmist reader robhon left a comment here proposing a bet which I find quite interesting. Here’s what he proposes:

I’m taking bets with deniers that the decade from 2010 to 2019 will end with at least 7 of the warmest years on record (again, global temperature… you choose the data set, UAH, GISS, RSS, HadCRU…). So, if you genuinely believe that we are headed for a cooling trend, put your money where your mouth is. I will.”

I think what he wants to say is that the next decade will be warmer than the one we just finished. The next decade to me is 2011 – 2020. I propose the following:

I pledge to bet USD 50.00 (fifty US dollars) that the decade of 2011 – 2020 will be cooler globally on average than the decade 2001 – 2010. We will simply take the average of both decades and compare to see which is higher. I suggest using either UAH or RSS, or a composite of both satellite datasets.

Here’s how it looks so far:

You warmists are all saying it’s going to get warmer. What are you waiting for? Man, I can see that trendline just zooming right on up through the next decade – can’t you?

I’m even going to open this bet up for everyone, with all proceeds going to a charity like Children’s Hospice International.

All proceeds will go to a children’s charity.

Anyone who wishes to pledge a sum (min $5) will be able to send an e-mail to me and I will make a list of all those particpating and post it here. That total amount will then need to be matched by robhon and his warmist pals. We can place a limit so that it doesn’t get out of hand. The bet has to be accepted by February 1, 2011.

Anyone who wants to join in for a good cause, make your pledges by then. And then we will see if robhon is ready to go for it.

What do you say amigo?

If the 2011/20 decade averages to be warmer than 2001/10, then I will concede that the earth is indeed warming. But if the next decade turns out to be cooler or the same, then you will have to concede that the theory that CO2 is driving the climate is bunk.  We can work out the details in the days and weeks ahead.

Heck, the PIK ought to be the first to step up. Mr Rahmstorf made such a bet 2 years ago – and says he won!

Looking foraward to hearing your prompt reply.

P Gosselin

PS: I’ve I sent an e-mail to robhon to let him know.

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UPDATE:  Folks, the bet is on! Robhon has accepted, see his comment! He certainly is exuding quite a bit of confidence. Crap! Now I wish Dec. 2010 had been much warmer!