By Kenneth Richard on 19. February 2024
“Here, we have demonstrated a major discrepancy between observation-based and climate model-based historical trends in near-surface atmospheric water vapor in arid and semi-ari regions.” – Simpson et al., 2024 A new study published in PNAS has demonstrated, once again, that climate models fail to simulate what happens in the real world with regard to fundamental […]
Posted in Models |
By P Gosselin on 13. January 2024
We keep hearing how we’re all supposed to believe in models – even those of highly complex, poorly understood systems like weather and climate. Yet, their outputs keep changing. Hat-tip Snowfan here. Back on December 22, last year, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast a warmer than normal February 2024: But it has since turned […]
Posted in Models, Weather |
By Kenneth Richard on 9. November 2023
IPCC models rooted in assumptions that we humans can and do control the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation with our daily-activity CO2 emissions have been wrong since the mid-1980s. Why should we still believe in them? The latest IPCC report continues to say it is “very likely” the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC), a fundamental climate parameter, […]
Posted in Models, Natural Oceanic Oscillations, Oceans |
By P Gosselin on 4. November 2023
See full report at Dr. Roy Spencer As a follow-on to our paper submitted on a new method for calculating the multi-station average urban heat island (UHI) effect on air temperature, I’ve extended that initial U.S.-based study of summertime UHI effects to global land areas in all seasons and produced a global gridded dataset, currently covering the […]
Posted in Models, Temperature Bias/Urbanization
By Kenneth Richard on 30. October 2023
“Despite two decades of advances in many aspects of aerosol-climate science, aerosol climate forcing uncertainty is virtually undiminished. Yet, reducing this uncertainty is critical for any effort to attribute, mitigate, or predict climate changes.” – Kahn et al., 2023 According to a new study, the lower-bound uncertainty in natural aerosol forcing from wildfire smoke, desert […]
Posted in Models, Uncertainty Error
By Kenneth Richard on 12. October 2023
For decades rock weathering has been thought to be a net sink in carbon budget models. New research finds rock emissions are a large net source of CO2 to the atmosphere. A few years ago Buesseler et al., 2020 discovered that all of the climate modelers’ previous estimates of global ocean carbon uptake are substantially […]
Posted in Emissions, Models |
By P Gosselin on 3. October 2023
German online agriculture information site agrarheute.com here asks whether the climate models wrong since the East “East Pacific has been cooling down more and more over the past 30 years” and this “contrary to all predictions”. Modern agriculture knows that oceanic cycles have significant consequences for global agriculture. Corn struggles amid Europe’s 2022 drought. East […]
Posted in Agriculture, Models |
By Kenneth Richard on 14. September 2023
A stable current global sea level record has apparently been “corrected” to show accelerated rise since the 1990s. A few months ago we highlighted a new study indicating satellite observations reveal Antarctic-wide ice shelves gained +661 Gt of mass from 2009 to 2019. Instead of reporting on these actual observations, agenda-driven scientists have long been […]
Posted in Models, Sea Levels |
By Kenneth Richard on 3. August 2023
“…models are pushing further and further into the domain of the ‘terra incognita.’” – Stephens et al., 2023 It is well established in climate science that water (1) “exerts a fundamental influence on the physical climate system and on climate change,” (2) clouds “control the planetary albedo and the amount of solar radiation reaching the […]
Posted in Models, Scepticism
By Kenneth Richard on 20. July 2023
“Climatological models…pretend on a long-term description of the atmosphere…ignoring physical laws in climatology.” – Smirnov, 2022 “[T]he Kirchoff law is neglected in climatological models. This leads to a large mistake in prediction of the global temperature change.” “[D]oubling the concentration of atmospheric CO2 molecules leads to the following change of the global temperature T = […]
Posted in Climate Sensitivity, CO2 and GHG, Models |
By Kenneth Richard on 19. June 2023
Yet another instance of the models getting it wrong. Hydrological processes were expected to intensify with warming. The opposite has happened. […]
Posted in Models, Weather
By Kenneth Richard on 15. June 2023
Scientists have determined the error in calculating effects of shortwave cloud forcing on climate spans 82-132 W/m² since the mid-1990s. Total clear-sky climate forcing linked to CO2 since 1750 is 1.8 W/m². Therefore, there is no way to accurately determine anthropogenic CO2’s capacity to influence climate. Even NASA acknowledges that for climate models to be […]
Posted in Cloud Climate Influence, Models |
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