Models

Beleaguered Models: Harvard Physicist/New Study Say Daily Insolation Errors Not Accounted For!

Beleaguered Models: Harvard Physicist/New Study Say Daily Insolation Errors Not Accounted For!

A new paper is out by Rodolfo G. Cionco and Willie W. H. Soon: “Short Term Orbital Forcing (STOF): A quasi-review and a reappraisal of realistic boundary conditions for climate modeling“. It suggests that climate models have neglected to take surrounding astro-climatic parameters correctly into account, and thus their output results are likely even less […]

Recent Research Shows Climate Models Are Mostly “Black Box” Fudging, Not Real Science

Climate models fail on the test stand By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt [German text translated/edited by P Gosselin) 20 years ago climate models were celebrated as a huge breakthrough. Finally we were able to reproduce reality in the computer, which had been becoming ever more powerful and faster. Everyone believed that only minor […]

Uncertainties, Errors In Radiative Forcing Estimates 10 - 100 Times Larger Than Entire Radiative Effect Of Increasing CO2

Uncertainties, Errors In Radiative Forcing Estimates 10 – 100 Times Larger Than Entire Radiative Effect Of Increasing CO2

Climate Model Errors = 20 W m-2 CO2 Climate Forcing = 0.2 W m-2 Scott Pruitt, the new head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, has recently been characterized as a climate science “denialist” by world news organizations.   A UK Guardian headline, for example, has claimed that “EPA head Scott Pruitt denies that carbon dioxide causes global […]

Heat’s On At NOAA As “High Level Whistle Blower” Exposes Data Fraud, “Scientific Integrity Breaches”!

A SUNDAY MORNING BOMBSHELL UPDATE: “Being retired sure is liberating.” – John Bates. Read: https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/04/climate-scientists-versus-climate-data/#more-22794 =================================== According to a just published article by the Online Mail of the UK here, a “high-level whistleblower” has disclosed that America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) “breached its own rules on scientific integrity” and “duped” world leaders with manipulated […]

Defying IPCC Models, U.S. Blizzard Frequency Has Nearly Quadrupled Since 1960, As U.S. Continues Cooling

Defying IPCC Models, U.S. Blizzard Frequency Has Nearly Quadrupled Since 1960, As U.S. Continues Cooling

What Models Say: ♦  IPCC TAR (2001):  “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms“ ♦   Kunkel et al., 2002:  “Surface conditions favorable for heavy lake-effect snow decreased in frequency by 50% and 90% for the HadCM2 and CGCM1 [models], respectively, by the late 21st Century. This reduction was due almost entirely to … an increase in […]

Shock Freeze A Harbinger Of Things To Come? The Many Signs Of More Cooling!

Shock Freeze A Harbinger Of Things To Come? The Many Signs Of More Cooling!

As Europe and USA brace for more frigid weather, some are asking if this is what we need to expect to cope with in the future. Now it’s clear that the recent “record warm” 2 years had little to do with CO2, and instead were almost entirely due to the well-known El-Nino phenomenon over the […]

Crumbling 'Consensus': 500 Scientific Papers Published In 2016 Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarm

Crumbling ‘Consensus’: 500 Scientific Papers Published In 2016 Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarm

Climate science is supposed to be settled, right? We are told that there is an overwhelming agreement, or consensus, among scientists that most weather and climate changes that have occurred since the mid-20th century have been caused by human activity — our fossil fuel burning and CO2 emissions in particular.  We are told that natural mechanisms that […]

National Weather Service's Multi-Billion Dollar Models Fail ...Totally Botched Forecasts!

National Weather Service’s Multi-Billion Dollar Models Fail …Totally Botched Forecasts!

If President-elect Donald Trump is looking for places to cut costs, he might want to take a look at the National Weather Service’s seasonal forecasting unit. Yesterday at the Daily Update over at Weatherbell Analytics, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi looked at the season forecasts, generated by billion dollar super-computers,  recently put out by NCEP. Turns out […]

Current Solar Cycle Weakest In 2 Centuries! And Grant Foster’s “Far-Fetched” Model Claims

The Sun in November 2016.  And models coming back to reality By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated/edited by P Gosselin)The star at the center of our solar system last month again approached bottom with its solar activity. The monthly mean for sunspot number (SSN) was 21.4. Just how low this is, is clearly illustrated by […]

Max Planck Institute (Model Calculations): Sahel Is Greening (Due To Human Activity)!

What follows is another example of climate science making up a theory to fit an observation. Of course, most of us suspect that natural cycles are what’s really at play here. ============================================================ Warmer Mediterranean turns the Sahel green Anthropogenic climate change contributes to fanning of the West African monsoon by moisture from the Mediterranean Climate […]

NOAA Forced To Totally Overhaul Winter Forecast For Northern Europe, Russia, As Cold Spreads

NOAA Forced To Totally Overhaul Winter Forecast For Northern Europe, Russia, As Cold Spreads

Models and experts of every type have had plenty of setbacks making forecasts for chaotic systems. Recent examples include the election results and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman’s prediction that the US market would dive in response to the election of Trump (it in fact went on and set a new all-time record high). If anything has lost […]

"Clear Mismatch Between Climate Models And Paleoclimate Data," New Peer-Reviewed Book Finds

“Clear Mismatch Between Climate Models And Paleoclimate Data,” New Peer-Reviewed Book Finds

Climate science critical geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning and chemist Professor Fritz Vahrenholt informed readers here that a new book has been recently published: “Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming“. The book’s publisher is glacier geologist Don Easterbrook, Western Washington University. At their site Lüning and Vahrenholt write […]

Leading Climate Sensitivity Scientist "Admits Mathematical Errors in The AGW Theory"!

Leading Climate Sensitivity Scientist “Admits Mathematical Errors in The AGW Theory”!

Mr. Kyoji Kimoto has asked me to post the following essay, which tells us leading climate sensitivity scientist Dr. Robert Cess admits the IPCC assumptions are erroneous. (Note: Because WordPress didn’t handle some of the scientific notation, I had to cut and paste parts of the text as images). =================================== Dr. Robert D. Cess admits mathematical errors […]

Tipping Points Postponed Again: Arctic Sea Ice Refuses To Melt ...No Real Shrinking In 10 Years!

Tipping Points Postponed Again: Arctic Sea Ice Refuses To Melt …No Real Shrinking In 10 Years!

Japanese climate blogger Kirye caught my eye here at Twitter when posting a comparator chart of Arctic sea ice extent (and thickness) for 2007, 2015 and this year (2016) for September 4. In a nutshell, what is all the alarm about? She comments that “Arctic ice is not doomed in the real world.” Clearly Arctic […]

German Scientists Say It’s “Game Over” For “Potsdam Climate Alarm Factory”

At their “Die kalte Sonne” site, geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning and chemist Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt write that Stefan Rahmstorf of the alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact research has had to watch another one of his alarmist claims go down in flames. ========================================= Game over: Dutch scientists refute Rahmstorf’s Gulf Stream alarm story By Dr. […]

U Of Leipzig Meteorology Researcher Lashes At Skeptics Of Climate Prophecy 2050 And Beyond

End-of-world warnings are as old as civilization itself. Of the thousands of charlatans who have prophesized end-of-world scenarios over the past thousands of years, none obviously have come true. So isn’t it only natural that sane people today would be a little, if not very skeptical of new announcements of a coming climate Armegeddon? A few […]

Heavier Global Precipitation Not In Our Lifetime – Postponed To 2100, U. Of Leipzig Study Finds!

I had to chuckle when I read the following press release on a study that found that global precipitation has not risen after all. Models and media reports wrong again! ========================================== Leipzig meteorologist studies effects of climate change on worldwide precipitation Rain over the tropical Atlantic. Photo taken from the Polarstern research vessel, Jun.-Prof. Dr. Bernhard Pospichal/Institute […]

Paging Attorneys General! …

2016 Scientific Consensus: Climate Models Aren’t Working By Kenneth Richard In a 2015 editorial on the dire consequences of human-caused climate change, Marcia McNutt, editor of the journal Science, stated with conviction that “the time for debate has ended.”   It’s the “action” of reducing our CO2 emissions that is now “urgently needed” instead of debating […]

Spiegel Calls Recent Extreme Weather Claims “A Climate Bluff”. Data Show “No Recognizable Increase”!

Parts of Germany have been hit hard by unusually harsh downpours, flooding and thunderstorms over the recent days, prompting some alarmist scientists to barge into TV and radio studios to announce it’s due to human-made climate worsening. Now Spiegel science journlalist Axel Bojanowski comments on this behavior in a commentary titled: “Heavy rains in Germany: […]

Masato Mori’s Harsh Winter/Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Hypothesis Flops, Brand New Study Shows!

Some 15 years ago we were told that snow and ice in the wintertime would be things of the past. Then Europe and North America experienced a series of harsh winters and climate scientists, turning on a dime, suddenly declared them the result of global warming. Now that claim too is turning out to be […]