Twice As Much Snow Falling In The Russian Ural Mountains Than 100 Years Ago…Leading To More Tree Growth

German public radio Deutschlandfunk (DLF) reported earlier this year that scientists have discovered that twice as much snow has been falling in the Ural Mountains than 100 years ago.


Yugyd Va National Park. Public domain photo.

Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne here.

The DLF reports:

Ural: snow causing the tree line to rise.
Climate change does not only mean that the temperature is increasing, it can also change the precipitation patterns. In the Ural Mountains of Russia significantly more snow is falling in the wintertime than 100 years ago. The development is having surprising consequences: The bigger amounts of snow is causing the tree line to rise. […]

In the summertime in the Urals its has not gotten notably warmer over the past 100 years. The wintertime temperatures, however, have increased from minus 18°C to minus 16°C. Warmer low pressure systems are bringing more precipitation to the mountains. In the Urals today twice as much snow is falling than 100 years ago. And that is having an impact on the treeline.”

According to the DLF, a team of German and Russian scientists say the tree line is currently rising at a rate of about 4 to 6 meters per decade.

The scientists believe that the doubled snowfall serves to protect young saplings during the winter and allow soil conditions that foster growth during the summer time. Photos of the region has allowed the scientists to determine treelines that today are up to 60 meters higher than 100 years ago.


Flurry Of Scientists, Recent Peer-Reviewed Papers, Warning Of Approaching Little Ice Age

There’s a lot of excitement flaring up, especially on the alarmist side, because of a possible super El Nino occurring later this year – one that could push global temperature to a new modern high.

That of course is entirely possible. However, it isn’t going to really matter, and possibly may only be the last death convulsion of planetary warming. Everyone knows that a cooling La Nina follows an El Nino event. Indeed a number of solar physicists are now warning that we may in fact be on our final days of warmth for a number of decades to come.

Geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt tells us why in their latest essay.


Will the solar doldrums of the coming decades lead to cooling? A look at the latest scientific publications

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by NoTricksZone)

Seldom has the sun been as strong as we have seen it over the last 5 decades. Is it just a coincidence that the largest warming of the last 500 years occurred during this phase?

Just a few years ago the tide changed when the sun ended its hyperactive phase. Few people had anticipated this, and so it was a surprise for many. Solar physicist Leif Svalgaard of California’s Stanford University expressed it as follows at the American Geophysical Union last December:

“None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle. So we will learn something.”

And so science commenced to consider and think about what all this could lead to. The latest works on the subject include Qian et al. 2014 (“Secular changes in the thermosphere and ionosphere between two quiet Sun periods“), Zhao et al. 2014 (Modulation of galactic cosmic rays during the unusual solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24) and McCracken & Beer 2014 (Comparison of the extended solar minimum of 2006–2009 with the Spoerer, Maunder, and Dalton Grand Minima in solar activity in the past).

After a number of studies it has become clearer: It’s only the beginning! It is expected that the sun will continue becoming quieter over the coming decades. This has pretty much become the consensus among solar physicists. The latest studies on the subject come from Roth & Joos 2013, who assume a decline in solar activity to normal levels will occur during the 21st century. Salvador 2013 goes further and anticipates a solar minimum for the coming 30-100 years. Read the original abstract:

Using many features of Ian Wilson’s Tidal Torque theory, a mathematical model of the sunspot cycle has been created that reproduces changing sunspot cycle lengths and has an 85% correlation with the sunspot numbers from 1749 to 2013. The model makes a reasonable representation of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr, placing all the solar minimums in their right time periods. More importantly, I believe the model can be used to forecast future solar cycles quantitatively for 30 yr and directionally for 100 yr. The forecast is for a solar minimum and quiet Sun for the next 30 to 100 yr. The model is a slowly changing chaotic system with patterns that are never repeated in exactly the same way. Inferences as to the causes of the sunspot cycle patterns can be made by looking at the model’s terms and relating them to aspects of the Tidal Torque theory and, possibly, Jovian magnetic field interactions.

In the Journal of Geophysical Research a study by Goelzer et al. appeared in December 2013 and also foresees a decline in solar activity.

What climatic consequences could this have? In our book “The Neglected Sun” we assume that temperatures could be two tenths of a degree lower by 2030 as a result, which would mean warming getting postponed far into the future. Russian scientists foresee an even more dramatic situation, as described in Germany’s leading national daily Bild of April 4,2013:

AND NOW THIS! Russian scientist sees next approaching ice age
It will get colder beginning in 2014 +++ Human migration cannot be ruled out”

Just a month earlier The Voice of Russia reported:

Planet on the verge of an ice age
Russian scientists are predicting that a little ice age will begin in 2014. They refute the claims of global warming and describe them as a marketing trick. Global warming is indeed happening. The earth has been continuously getting warmer since the second half of the 18th century, the start of the Industrial Revolution. This is why the process gets connected to an anthropogenic impact. Mankind increased CO2 emissions, which caused a greenhouse effect. But Russian scientist Vladimir Baschkin categorically disagrees. He claims that the climatic changes have a cyclic character and are not at all related in any way to human activities. Together with his colleague, Rauf Galiullin, of the Institute for Fundamental Problems of Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, he points out that the current warming is merely the continuation of the post Little Ice Age and that, measured on a geological scale, the occurrence of a new ice age is approaching.”

Continue reading at Voice of Russia.

Other scientists share this view as well, among them Professor Cliff Ollier of the School of Earth and Environmental Studies at the University of Western Australia:

Professor Cliff Ollier of the School of Earth and Environmental Studies, the University of Western Australia, recently presented a paper in Poznan, Poland,  in which he described the sun as the major control of climate, but not through greenhouse gases.”There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate. Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling.”

H.S. Ahluwalia of the Department of Physics & Astronomy of the University of New Mexico sees it in similar way, as he describes in an article in the journal of Advances in Space Research in February 2014. Ahluwalia expects a Dalton-type minimum and reminds us that the last minimum of this kind back around 1810 resulted in a cold period.


Sebastian Lüning will be one of the speakers at the upcoming 9th International Conference on Climate Change in Las Vegas July 7-9. See following 30-second video for more information:

The conference is sponsored by the Heartland Institute.


Russian Academy Of Sciences Experts Warn Of Imminent Cold Period: “Global Warming Is A Marketing Trick”

The European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) here links to an article published by Stimme Russlands (Voice of Russia). The article is titled: Die Welt vor einer Eiszeit, in English: The World On The Verge Of An Ice Age.

Reports of global cooling are becoming more frequent. FLASHBACK: 30 experts predict cooling.

Earth_NASA cropped photo

NASA photo (public domain)

You’ll notice that this Voice of Russia report is more than a month old, and so one wonders why it was never picked up by the western mainstream media.

The article writes that Russian scientists are predicting that “a little ice age will begin in 2014“. The article adds:

They reject the claim of global warming and call it a marketing trick.”

Wow! That’s heavy.

When it comes to warming and the man-made CO2 greenhouse gas effect, the Voice of Russia writes that “Russian scientist Vladimir Bashkin is categorically in disagreement. He claims that the climatic changes are characterized by cycles and have nothing to do in any way with the activities of man.”

The Voice of Russia continues:

Together with his colleague Rauf Galiullin from the Institute for Fundamental Problems of Biology of the Russian Academy Of Science, he demonstrates that the current warming is a reverberation of the planet coming out of the ‘Little Ice Age’ and that in the near future, of course measured on geological timescales, we are at the threshold of an ice age.”

The Voice of Russia quotes Bashkin:

The periods of a cooling and a warming follow each other at 30-40 year intervals. In Russia for example there was a warming in the 1930s, a time when seafaring at the Northern Sea Route was possible, then a cooling followed during the wartime years, and then warming followed in the 1970s, etc.. The current warming period ended at the end of the millennium.“

Note here that the Russian scientists confirm that the Arctic sea ice extent was also low in the 1930s. This tells us that nothing is really so unusual in the Arctic today.

The Voice of Russia then explains that the cooling is related to “a change in solar activity” and that this “also has an impact on our climate“. Bashkin adds:

The scientific research of the climate of the past geological epoch causes us to doubt the motives behind the demands of the IPCC. […] “The greenhouse effect that is connected with the anthropogenic factor is about 4 or 5 percent of that from natural emissions. The eruption of a volcano produces more. A real contribution to the greenhouse effect is made by normal water vapor. Thank God nobody has gotten the idea that this too needs to be regulated.“

The Voice of Russia continues: “The world’s oceans contain 60 times more carbon dioxide than the atmosphere. When the temperature of the planet rises, it begins to be quickly released. This leads to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, and not vice versa. A global warming that so many are talking about is not so much a scientific problem, rather it is much more a marketing trick. […] We do not have global warming ahead of us, rather we have global cooling, the Russian scientist claims. However, we do not need to fear the cooling because it will take place gradually and won’t be noticeable until the middle of the 21st century.”

The scientists add that part of the motive behind the “marketing trick” is to manipulate the market for fossil fuels.


Russian Arctic Scientist: Permafrost Changes Due To Natural Factors…”It’s Going To Be Colder”!

Sebastian Lüning’s and Fritz Vahrenholt’s Die kalte Sonne presents an interesting view on permafrost from Russia. I’ve added some extra quotes from the video for non-German readers.

After widespread sea ice melt in the Arctic in the 1930s and 40s, the ice re-established itself. In the 1970s the temperature dropped and sea ice increased. In the 1970s and 90s at the Hudson Bay and Beaufort Sea, seals suffered under the extensive ice and the population fell dramatically.

In Siberia today the permafrost is supposed to be gradually melting, so we are told. But if you ask local Russian scientists, this cannot be confirmed (see video above).

Russian permafrost expert slaps down AGW

In the video a German journalist travels to Siberia and speaks with Russian permafrost expert Michali Grigoryev on the state of the permafrost (2007). Grigoryev shows the journalist a rare baby mammoth uncovered from the ice, and adds that such finds are becoming more and more frequent today. “Because of climate change”, the journalist asks at the 0:48 mark? Grigoryev answers:

No, you are wrong. The permafrost is not melting. There is no man-made climate change.”

The journalist then quotes the Russian scientist:

Indeed above at the surface it has gotten warmer, but that’s just part of a normal cycle. The permafrost is rock hard, And that is how it is going to stay. There’s no talk of thawing.”

At the 1:24 mark, the scientist says:

The cyclic warming is coming to an end. It is going to get colder soon. The climate depends on the sun and the oceans. Three factors have coincided and have warmed the climate, but in 8 to 15 years, it’s going to be colder again.”

As the clip was made in 2007, that means we have just 3 to 10 years left before the cooling sets in in earnest. We note that there’s been no warming in 15 years and that the signs for cooling are mounting.

In another another study from Siberia, multiple super warm periods were found over the last 2.8 million years. Those were certainly caused by purely natural processes, and not anthropogenic influences.

But let’s look at the more recent 10,000 years, i.e. the current interglacial. A German-Norwegian team led by Juliane Müller of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bermerhaven, Germany, recently discovered that the sea ice cover west of Greenland gradually increased from 8500 to 1000 years before present. Off Eastern Greenland sea ice pretty much remained constant during this period. The study appeared in July 2012 in the Quaternary Science Reviews.

In yet another study by a team led by Funder shows that the Arctic sea ice 8000 years ago was less than half of the minimum we saw in 2007. In the meantime most of the climate models are able to reproduce this lack of ice during the middle of the interglacial (Berger et al 2012, Climate of the Past Discussions). The cause of this warming and the ice melt in this case was the Milankovitch cycles.

Finally, we have the Medieval Warm Period back. Canadian scientists have just discovered that the Northwest Passage had been completely ice-free during the summer, which today is still not the case.


Scientists Of The Russian Academy Of Science: “Global Warming Is Coming To An End – Return To Early 1980s Level”

The German langauge Voice of Russia here reports a news item you’ll never hear from the mainstream media. Top scientists of Russia’s most prestigious academy say global warming is ending.

Hat-tip: European Institute for Climate and Energy.

Here’s the Voice of Russia report I’ve translated in English:

Global warming is coming to an end: In the coming years the temperature over the entire planet will fall and the cooling will provide a character of relief. This is the conclusion reached by Russian scientists from the Physics University of the Russian Academy of Science.

The process of a general temperature decrease has already begun, according to the research. After having peaked in 2005, the average temperature on Earth is now returning to the level of the 1996-1997 years, 0.3°C lower.

According to the scientists, global temperatures will fall another 0.15°C by 2015, which corresponds to the climate of the early 1980s.”

Wow! More great news that rebut the claims of the climate catastrophe. I’d think the media and western political readers would embrace all this and be relieved.

The persons most relieved to hear this should be the panicky James Hansen and Al Gore. Surely they’ll be very happy to hear this news.

Now climate scientists can go back to the old narrative of the early 1980s: global cooling!


Kook Science and Predictions Spreading Beyond Climatology

It’s a slow climate news day here in Germany, and this story at happened to catch my eye.

Russian scientists expect to meet aliens by 2031

So there you are. Kook scientists (funded by the poor taxpayers) are also to be found in fields other than climate science. To be honest, I’d say the odds these aliens being discovered are likely greater than some of the goofy climate predictions we’ve heard from GISS or the PIK coming true. The China Daily writes:

Russian scientists expect humanity to encounter alien civilizations within the next two decades, a top Russian astronomer predicted on Monday.

‘The genesis of life is as inevitable as the formation of atoms… Life exists on other planets and we will find it within 20 years,’ Andrei Finkelstein, director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Applied Astronomy Institute, was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying. Speaking at an international forum dedicated to the search for extraterrestrial life, Finkelstein said 10 percent of the known planets circling suns in the galaxy resemble Earth.

Where does he come up with 10%? Fat chance of that being true. And planets that resemble earth? Right!

If water can be found there, then so can life, he said, adding that aliens would most likely resemble humans with two arms, two legs and a head. “They may have different colour skin, but even we have that,” he said.

Gee, and I thought alarmist climate scientists were kooks and losing it completely.

I agree that there is a chance that there is “other life” out there – maybe way way out there, like 100 million light years away, and in some “weird” form. But the chances that there is a planet with creatures with “two arms, two legs and a head” living on it, and close enough to be discovered, and that in the next 20 years, is statistically zero. That would require a planet whose numerous physical features would be incredibly similar to the earth’s, and one that would also have followed a similar geological, climatic multi-million year history and evolution. We’re talking zillions of factors here.

Forget it.

But let’s say we did miraculously discover such creatures. Then the planet on which they live would very very very likely be thousands if not millions of light years away, meaning the images and signals that we would be receiving would be thousands or millions of years old, meaning the creatures would be long dead anyway.

Sorry, but we’re on our own here, and our stay is temporary. Just be glad you even got the precious chance to know the earth.

2010 Russian Heat Wave Was Only 20% Caused by “Climate Change”, Says Academy Of Sciences

Note there is no mention at all of “man-made” here.In the coming weeks Russian scientists plan to publish the results of their work on their investigation on the cause of the extremely hot 2010 Russian summer. This was reported yesterday in the German edition of Ria Novosti here.

The study was conducted by the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Control (Rosgidromet), headed by Alexander Frolow, and the Russian Academy of Sciences. Both organizations analyzed the summer weather anomaly.

Ria Novosti writes:

According to Frolow, the situation was influenced by a group of causes, among them a stubborn high pressure area and an unfavorable combination of ocean temperature anomalies. The situation in the European part of Russia was worsened by dry winds coming from other regions.

According to estimates by the scientists, this weather  anomaly was caused 20% by global climate change.

Note there is no mention in the Ria Novosti report of “man-made climate change” – only “climate change”. Since climate is always changing naturally, in sync with other cycles like ocean and solar cycles, evidence of a human greenhouse gas fingerprint as the cause would seem to be impossible to discern.

Projected Coldest Winter In 1000 Years May Be Caused By Global Warming?

That’s what the reporter in the following clip seems to suggest. So it means the warmists will start claiming cold winters as proof of warming. A number of blogs are buzzing about the “coldest winter in a 1000 years” being reported here: RT Prime Time. Western Asia and Eastern Europe are expecting a cold winter, but let’s not go over the edge here. This is a nutty claim.

We are not even in a little ice age. Does anyone seriously believe the Baltic Sea, and possibly the River Thames will freeze over, for weeks this winter? Take this notion of a 1000-year winter, or even a 100-year winter, and stuff it. Aint gonna happen.

The TV reporter in the above clip quotes meteorologists: “It’s supposed to be a beast of a winter.” That’s a fair claim.

NOAA is projecting a cold winter for Russia, Siberia and possibly Europe too. The reporter talks about the cold hitting the western Russia-European region.

Joe Bastardi in his latest post, however, did not make any commitment, though he seems to be hinting that we ought to expect cold. I have to say I get the feeling he sees something unusual, and so he’s going to take his time to really make sure – maybe just my imagination is just running wild.

An unusually cold winter is not far-fetched. But a 1000-year winter? Get out of here! That’s TV bullcrap. Unless Joe Bastardi comes out later this fall and says so, I aint buying it.

What are the reasons for the projected vicious cold asks the  reporter in the studio? “Is it climate change?”

They don’t really know. They’re looking at global warming.

That along with other factors. Global warming – what nonsense. The following NOAA chart definitely supports Russian meteorologists’ claims that the winter will be harsh.

Video: Putin Asks Each Scientist Point Blank: Is Climate Change Caused By Man? Answer: We Don’t Know!

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin arrived Monday on Samoilovsky Island in the western Siberian Arctic to visit a joint Russian-German scientific expedition, Lena-2010.

Lena 2010 is conducting studies on the Russian Arctic permafrost, which is 1.5 km thick at the Samoilovsky Island location and estimated to be 40,000 years old.

The German page of Ria Novosti has a video up (sorry – only in German) which reveals an interesting comment, one not reported in the western media. The video shows Putin visiting the study site, and even helps the scientists bore into the permafrost.
Update: English video click here

At the 1:15 mark of the video, Putin is reported to have asked each scientist the same question:

Is climate change caused by man, or not?

To which the video gives the reply at the 1:24 mark, the reporter says (translated from German):

Continue reading Video: Putin Asks Each Scientist Point Blank: Is Climate Change Caused By Man? Answer: We Don’t Know!

Lebedev Physics Institute: Solar Maximum May Be Postponed Again

SOHO latest image:
Last Friday the German edition RIA NOVOSTI Russian news agency reported that there were five clusters of sunspots on the sun, leading some scientists to believe that the sun’s unusual lull may be over for good.

Scientists have been observing sunspots for hundreds of years. Many believe solar activity has a major impact on the earth’s climate on a decadal scale.

As a rule, the number of sunspots is considered to be the main criteria for solar activity: the higher the number of sunspots, the higher the activity.

But Sergei Bogatchov of the Lebedev Physics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences says that this correlation is not exact.  Continue reading Lebedev Physics Institute: Solar Maximum May Be Postponed Again

Russian Scientist: Extreme Central Russian Heat Wave Not An Indication Of A Future Climate Catastrophe

Photo source:

Time to calm down everybody.

A Russian scientist says the regional heat wave taking place in Russia is not a sign of catastrophic climate change and that the permafrost has been thawing since the last ice age 10,000 years ago, and its rate of thawing is also not catastrophic.

This is what the German edition of the Russian online Ria Novosti writes here.

It’s more just a temporary natural occurrence, says Michail Kabanov, corresponding member of the Academy of Sciences and advisor of the Institute For Climate And Environmental Monitoring.

According to Michail Kabanov:

Deviations in one direction or the other, in this region or the other, are explained completely by the instability of the climate system. It meanders constantly and reaches various anomalies as a result, and does include extremes. The weather conditions of this year are precisely a result of this.

Scientists must still determine if this anomaly is part of a trend in one direction, i.e. global warming, or if it’s just another climate fluctuation says the scientist. According to Ria Novosti:

The earth also experienced climate warming in the past, which was then followed by cooling. The question is: To what extent does the anthropogenic factor effect the fluctuations?

Kabanow says the current drought is not the start of a future catastrophe. Rather it is simply one extreme event that rarely occurs.

Michail Kabanow also says the thawing of the permafrost also poses no threat to man. The permafrost has been thawing since the last ice age 10,000 years ago. The rate of thawing is by no means catastrophic.

The expert sees no approaching global catastrophe.

Russian Scientists: Sun Is Waking Up! Solar Particles Reaching the Earth and Magnetic Storms Possible

Solar cycle 24 took its time getting started, and when it did, it sputtered and faded. But that’s about to change, reports the German edition of the online Russian news service Ria Novosti here.Russian scientists say that the sun will soon come alive after having observed a total eclipse at Easter Island in the Pacific yesterday. They warn that magnetic storms could soon occur.

Dimitri Semyonov, who belongs to the team of observers, says the shape of the sun’s corona indicates an increase in solar activity, but cautions that the observed data still need to be evaluated. He adds:

 The sun is waking up.

Ria Novosti reports:

Dr. Sergei Bogatchov of the Laboratory for Solar X-Ray Astronomy at the Lebedev Institute of Physics told Ria Novosti that the back side of the sun has probably just seen the highest level of activity since the start of the year.

Dr. Sergei Bogatchov says:

In seven to ten days this active area of the sun will reach a position that will enable charged particles to reach the earth. That’s going to impact the geomagnetic situation – may even lead to magnetic storms.

The following graphic shows the location where the solar eclipse was observed yesterday. Sorry it’s in German, but it’s still interesting to look at.

So, it looks like a Maunder Minimum type of solar lull may not happen after all. We ought to be thankful for that. The next one or two weeks will tell us more.

More Junk Science Out Of NASA. Top Russian Scientist Says There’s "No Scientific Basis" For 2013 Solar Devastation Prediction

You’ll recall that WUWT reported here  a couple days ago on NASA’s warnings of “huge space storms” causing devastation in 2013 or so.  Well, one leading Russian scientist has something to say about it.The German edition of the online Russian RIA Novosti has a report today called: World Catastrophe in 2013? Russian Solar Scientist Is Sceptical. Astrophysicist Sergei Bogatchov told RIA Novosti yesterday:

Today there exists no scientific basis that allows the condition of the earth and the sun to be predicted over such a time period.

Mr. Bogatchov researches at the Laboratory for Solar X-Ray Astronomy at the Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Scientists indeed expect a peak in solar activity in 2013, but nobody can say how strong it’s going to be.

Moreover RIA Novosti reports,

The current solar slumber extending to 2013 also cannot be excluded.

And adds background info for its readers:

In the past weeks the media quoted the Head of NASA’s Heliophysics Division, Richard Fisher, that unprecedented solar eruptions are to be expected. That could mean disruptions in satellites, shutdowns in navigation systems and power grids.

So there you have it. A leading Russian scientist is scratching his head wondering how NASA scientists could possibly come up with such a prognosis.
My guess is probably the same way they make their climate projections: Conjure up a catastrophe scenario, insist it withstands rigorous review, get the media and idiot politicians to believe it, and then get more funding!

Russia Searching For Reliable Climate Data

The German version of RIA Novosti reports that Russia hopes to gain more precise weather forecasts, new findings on global warming and improved exploration of new oil and gas reserves from its planned, new Arktika Satellite system.

The Arktika System, which is made up of 5 satellites,  is a whole new instrument that will deliver absolutely new data on climate change says Alexander Bedrizki, Climate Appointee of the Russian President.  The project will allow continous observation of the Arctic 24 hours per day and be able to measure water temperature and ice thickness. The project will also have economic value because the Arctic holds huge oil and gas reserves. The project will also enable commerical flights to pass over the Arctic.

Alexander Frolow Director of the Russian Weather Service hopes to generate more accurate weather forecasts and to better assess events such as the recent Iceland volcano eruption which was above 60° north latitude.  Current satellite systems were not able to accurately track the cloud of ash from afar.

Russian aerospace company Lawotschkin will begin work on the project this year. Two communications satellites, two waether satellites and a radar satellite for measring ice  and exploring natural resources will be developed and launched into space.

Another Russian Scientist: Arctic Is Cooling

Yet another Russian scientist believes the Arctic is set for cooling and thus increasing sea ice, this reported in the German version of the Russian online news RIA NOVOSTI (see links below). Scientist Vladimir Sokolov says:

The warming that occurred in the Arctic has swung back to cooling and sea ice that melted over the past years is recovering., The English version is here:

Arctic sea ice reached a historic minimum in 2007 when it shrank to 4.28 million sq km. But the trend now appears to have reversed. According to the weather observation administration Roshydromet, it has grown by a fifth reaching 5.2 million square km in 2009, Sokolov said at the Petersburg Research Insttitute for the Arctic and Antarctic on Tuesday.

Sokolov calls predictions of continued shrinking Arctic ice “incorrect”.

He says the cooling is due to the polar night and the associated missing sunlight, and this as a result will lead to ice formation. Some scientists are warning that politicians and corporations who promise lucrative oil and gas projects in the Arctic may have made dramatic miscalculations. The researchers say that no warming will take place, instead cooling will impact the earth over the next decades.

Dr Pokrovsky Replies

Dr Oleg Pokrovsky has kindly taken the time to provide further information on his recent remarks, which have been widely quoted. We thank him for doing so. He writes as follows and includes a link to a ppt. presentation (see below):

Dear Colleagues,

Thank you for discussion of my conclusions presented at recent IPY conference
occurred in AARI (St.Petersburg, Russia).
My vision of future climate is based on comprehensive analysis of climate index series analysis, which permits to reveal fundamental quasi-periodical oscillations in most components of climate system:
-Solar activity
-SST of ocean (AMO and PDO)
-Surface air temperature
– Surface irradiance
-Ice extent in Russian Arctic Seas
I found that that those are in strong coherence when inter-annual climate noise was removed in each of them
My motivation might be illustrated by a set of figures presented at recent Arctic Frontiers Conference (Tromso, Norway)

Please keep your comments focused on the contents Dr Pokrovsky’s presentation.

Russian Scientist: 4% More Antarctic Sea Ice – Ozone Hole Cooling Antarctica

The April 21, 2010 German edition of the Russian news website RIA Novosti has a piece with a possible explanantion as to why Antarctic sea ice is expanding while the rest of the globe is warming.

A Russian scientist believes it is due to the ozone hole over the South Pole. According to Alexander Klepikov of the Research Instritute for Arctic and Antarctic at the Conference Maritime Research of Polar Regions of the Earth in the International Polar Year:

Over the last 3o years of satellite measurement, the growth of the ice amount in the Southern Ocean which surrounds Antarctica was more than 4 percent.

Klepikov emphasised that sea ice growth around the Antarctic coast was irregular and occurred at different areas. There was an especially large amount of sea ice growth in the Ross Sea located in the western part of the Pacific sector. Klepikov says British researchers, using mathematical models and analysis of meteorological data, could attribute the increasing sea ice trend to the so-called ozone anomaly in the South Pole region.

Reduced ozone concentrations over the South Pole leads to cooling of the upper atmosphere, and eventually leads to a strengthening of the circumpolar circular flow – winds that blow along the Antarctic coast and protect the Antarctic zone against the effects of warmer air. The same mechanism has the opposite effect on the Larsen Ice Shelf, causing increased melting.

Russian Scientist: Expect Cooling – Pols Sitting On The Wrong Horse

In the German edition of Ria Novosti, Russian scientist Oleg Pokrovsky of the Main Geophysical Observatory says the world should expect cooling – and not warming – and that this will interfere with Russia’s plans to exploit the Arctic’s rich resources. The climate has been cooling since 1998.

At a climate research conference for the Arctic and Antarctic in St. Petersburg, Friday, Pokrovsky said the Earth’s temperature fluctuates in 60-year cycles.

There isn’t going to be an ice age, but temperatures will drop to levels last seen in the 1950s and 1960s.

Pokrovsky adds:

Right now all components of the climate system are entering a negative phase.  The cooling will reach it’s peak in 15 years. Politicians who have geared up for warming are sitting on the wrong horse.

The Northeast Passage will freeze over and will be passable only with icebreakers.

Pokrovsky also claims that the IPCC, which has prophesized global warming, has ignored many factors. He also noted that most American weather stations are located in cities where temperatures are always higher.

We don’t know everything that’s happening. The climate system is very complex and the IPCC is not the final truth on the matter.

UPDATE,  4/26/2010: Here’s the RIA NOVOSTI English version:

UPDATE 2: Dr Pokrovsky replies here: