That’s what the reporter in the following clip seems to suggest. So it means the warmists will start claiming cold winters as proof of warming. A number of blogs are buzzing about the “coldest winter in a 1000 years” being reported here: RT Prime Time. Western Asia and Eastern Europe are expecting a cold winter, but let’s not go over the edge here. This is a nutty claim.
We are not even in a little ice age. Does anyone seriously believe the Baltic Sea, and possibly the River Thames will freeze over, for weeks this winter? Take this notion of a 1000-year winter, or even a 100-year winter, and stuff it. Aint gonna happen.
The TV reporter in the above clip quotes meteorologists: “It’s supposed to be a beast of a winter.” That’s a fair claim.
NOAA is projecting a cold winter for Russia, Siberia and possibly Europe too. The reporter talks about the cold hitting the western Russia-European region.
Joe Bastardi in his latest post, however, did not make any commitment, though he seems to be hinting that we ought to expect cold. I have to say I get the feeling he sees something unusual, and so he’s going to take his time to really make sure – maybe just my imagination is just running wild.
An unusually cold winter is not far-fetched. But a 1000-year winter? Get out of here! That’s TV bullcrap. Unless Joe Bastardi comes out later this fall and says so, I aint buying it.
What are the reasons for the projected vicious cold asks the reporter in the studio? “Is it climate change?”
They don’t really know. They’re looking at global warming.
That along with other factors. Global warming – what nonsense. The following NOAA chart definitely supports Russian meteorologists’ claims that the winter will be harsh.
Fifty years back there was a German meteorologist: M. Rodewald, who used to work at the SEEWARTE, the institution under the Luftfahrtministerium, which issued daily weather analysis, maps and predictions for the German navy and other militaries in autumn 1939, who wrote in 1948:
___”(It is … shown) … – a “secular heat wave” made itself felt over most of the Earth. We noticed this especially in the increasing mildness of the winters which, while beginning in the previous century, became more and more striking between 1900 and 1939. So it is all the more surprising that there was a series of three severe winters in succession in 1939/40, 1940/41 and 1941/42, appearing to indicate a sudden reversal of the previous development rather than a slow deceleration, contrary to the sustainment tendency of circulation and temperature deviation.” M. Rodewald, 1948, “Das Zustandekommen der strengen europäischen Winter”, in: Annalen der Meteorologie, Vol. 4/5, p. 97.
See last paragraph:”The Extreme Winter of 1939/40 and Climate Research” (2008, ca. 14p)
http://www.oceanclimate.de/A_Large_Scale_Experiment_with_Climate/A_Large_Scale_Experiment_with_Climate.html
The reasons for the sudden arrival of this winters, which actually started a global cooling trend for three decades is still not explained, although it correlated with the commencement of WWII. Did the North and Baltic Sea drove the winter weather into extremes? More discussion and analysis here: http://climate-ocean.com/
.
The mechanism for winters in Northern Europe, and whether human activities can contribute, would be better understood since long if M. Rodewald and colleagues, and the several generations that followed them, had shown interest and competence to investigate and explain the only cooling period over several decades since the Little Ice Age has ended at about 1850.
It all depends on the sun.
Bastardi: BRRRRRUSSIA
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather
P.s.
The first extensive winter forecast was published by Joseph D’Aleo.
He expects a harsh winter for Western Europe but nothing like the “coldest winter in 1.000 years”
I think the forecast is 80% BS and 20% wishful thinking or…. a very bad translation.
Here you can find the PDF file from Joseph D’Aleo
Winter 2010-2011
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/WINTER_201011.pdf
Stacking up for cold http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/10/stacking-up-for-cold.html
Thanks Ron,
And I thought last winter was bad!
[…] I would have to agree with P. Gosselin at NoTricksZone that this is a “nutty claim.” Could it happen? Possibly. Will it happen? Probably not. […]
Damn CO2, first it causes heatwaves, and now the coldest winter in a 1000 years. Blow up the unbelievers! (presses all the buttons in a giggling fit…)
About our sun, Hathaway has updated his solar forecast.
From 150 to 65.
I don’t think we’ll even get to that number.
I think what we seen now is all we will get.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/06/nasas-hathaway-issues-new-solar-cycle-prediction/
One WUWT reader said that if SC24 reaches only 64, it will be the most quiet cycle in 200 years. Add the negative PDO and AMO to that, and it could mean Siberian winters for Europe in the years ahead. This winter alone looks like a real Glühwein-winter.
You’re welcome Pierre.
I think Joseph D’Aleo is a very skilled forecaster with a very good track record.
Last year I had to drive my rear wheel drive backwards to cross a bridge due to icy road conditions, despite having winter tires.
I think I buy a used 4WD for more reliable driving during this kind of road conditions, just in case.
David Archibald on Dr. Hathaway’s most recent solar cycle 24 prediction
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/06/archibald-on-dr-hathaway’s-most-recent-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#more-25987
Highlights:
SC 24 will peak in 2015, not in 2013
Cycle 24 will be similar to cycle 5 (1798 )or 6 .
This is a “The Vries event (210 years cycle) and a Bond event.
We are about to experience the third hard NH winter.
Canadian crop yields are down 20% already.
We will loose the Canadian Grain belt entirely by the end of the decade.
In reference to the posting above:
Bond event:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_event
De Vries event:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation
During Solar Minimum conditions (low solar magnetic activity) we see an increase in seismic and volcanic activity.
We already have seen an increase in NH volcanic activity during the past three years.
Historical research has found that during the Little Ice Age the number of VE VII magnitude volcanic eruptions was about five times higher compared to the past century.
But how about seismic activity?
Magnitude 7.0 – 7.9 earthquakes have increased by 90% in 2010
http://modernsurvivalblog.com/earthquakes/mag-7-earthquakes-are-up-90-percent/
We know that seismic activity and volcanic activity are related.
Scientists have reported about several quakes that triggered volcanic eruptions within a year after the event.
These indeed are interesting times.
All primary indicators are set for a cooling event.
The last thing we need now is an increase in volcanic eruptions.
If the increase in seismic activity is an indicator for an increase in volcanic activity we should be worried.
A Pinatubu like event during a cold period could cause wide spread crop failure for several growing seasons and that could trigger the biggest famine in human history.
Also read this classic:
The triple crown of cooling could pose a serious threat to humanity.
http://www.examiner.com/seminole-county-environmental-news-in-orlando/triple-crown-of-global-cooling-could-pose-serious-threat-to-humanity
dear nutjobs
have you noticed the scale of the anomaly? it goes down to -4 Kelvin, hardly a record. and even the colour representing that is not projected to be reached. this summer saw anomalies in russia up to +8K fyi …
and, far, far more important: these are only forecasts. seasonal forecasts are notoriously uncertain.
so, not only are you trying to debunk global warming with a single cool winter, that hasn’t even happened yet, you’re even lying about how cold the winter is actually supposed to be.
for all of you who actually have enough brain power to read this, follow these instructions: first, read up about the difference between climate and weather. than look up about the reliability of seasonal forecasts. then look up global temperature in the last few years. than start informing as to why (certainly not IF) the planet’s warming.
greetings
Kalomel; get a supply of short trousers and buy up all the land north of the arctic circle you can get your hands on. You will need it when the Earth heats up.
Me, i go the opposite direction. Good riddance.
@ Kalomel
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/169577/Winter-may-be-coldest-in-1000-years/
Still convinced that global warming is taking place? Neither the IPCC nor the Met Office predicted this. Global warming “deniers” did. A little suspicious, don’t you think?