Now that climate models have been around for quite some time, we can assess their performance and whether it is a wise idea to rely on them.
So far they appear to be much worse than random guessing. In fact it seems that climate models almost have a perfect record at making completely erroneous predictions. At least that’s the case with climate models of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPIM) in Hamburg.
Yesterday Germany’s number 1 (in circulation) daily Bild here reported on this year’s once again lousy summer weather in Germany. Bild asked meteorologist Dominik Jung about summertime trends as a whole. Here’s what Bild writes (my emphasis):
Jung has discovered a trend: ‘One could say that the summers over the last 10 years have continuously gotten wetter! In 2007 there was 40% more rain than the normal mean, 2010 there was 15% more.’ Jung says: ‘In 2011 there was even 35% more rain than normal.’
Also the current summer is well on its way to being too wet. June got 15% more rain than normal.”
But Max Planck Institute models predicted the exact opposite!
So according to observations, summers in Germany have gotten wetter over the last 10 years. What did the climate models predict? A little digging turned up some interesting results.
Here’s what Focus wrote in 2009:
Scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg developed an especially high-resolution model. To the highest detail the model shows how climate change can impact Germany up to the year 2100. The MPIM climatologists summarized the results in a study published already in 2006. Their computer divided up the entire country into a 10 by 10 kilometer grid. Every 50 seconds it determines how the data inside them changes. Out comes values for temperature, pressure, wind and precipitation.
Clear climate trends are generated from the computer results. According to the model, winter months in all of Germany will become warmer. Depending on CO2 emissions, temperatures will rise regionally by up to 4°C, in the Alps even up to 5°C.
During the summertime, the rainfall amounts in the south, southwest and northeast of Germany can fall by up to one third, which will exacerbate droughts and increase forest fires. Along the North Sea and Baltic Sea coastlines, tourism will profit.”
When the models were made, The MPIM was under the direction of Prof. Hartmut Graßl, an alarmist who is now connected with the Münchener Re Reinsurer, which is making a bundle on the climate scare.
Now we suppose that the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) will have to correct the flawed Max Planck modelers. Germany’s recent cold and brutal winters led the PIK to slap together a “refined” model that suddenly projected global warming would lead to cold and snowy German winters instead. So I suppose we can soon expect the PIK to roll out another “refined” model calling for wetter summers.
Compensation for damages?
What about all the companies and investors who bankrolled on scorching hot, dry summers? Can they demand compensation for damages incurred from faulty forecasts? Earlier this year we installed a 12-kW solar system on our home, and we were looking forward to months of sunshine and a rapid ROI – based on MPIM computer forecasts, of course! Doesn’t look like that is going to happen, at least not this summer.
7-day forecast for Oldenburg Germany.
And I can forget getting any compensation for damages from the crystal-balling climate gypsies up in Hamburg. In fact, it looks like I’m going to have to turn on the furnace – in f—— July!