We’ve been hearing a lot of bogus “model science” asking us to believe the preposterous notion that a warm Arctic and reduced sea ice there “could” lead to bitter cold winters across Europe and North America. In summary the new science insists warming leads to more cold. Now there’s a new paper out in the Geophysical Research Letters titled: Solar influence on winter severity in Central Europe, which tells us this is a load of BS.
The sun has a major impact on climate. And there’s no denying it: solar activity reached record levels over the 20th century. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported
The key points of the paper:
- Freezing of the Rhine occurred from 1780-1963 regularly during sunspot minima.
- Coldest winter continue to occur during sunspot minima even today.
- This cooling is a regional phenomenon, but not a hemispheric signal.
The authors used historical reports of freezing of the river Rhine. They concluude:
The historical data show that 10 of the 14 freeze years occurred close to sunspot minima and only one during a year of moderate El Niño. This solar influence is underpinned by corresponding atmospheric circulation anomalies in reanalysis data covering the period 1871 to 2008. Accordingly, weak solar activity is empirically related to extremely cold winter conditions in Europe also on such long time scales. This relationship still holds today, however the average winter temperatures have been rising during the last decades.”
The cause of the rising average winter temperatures over the last decades will be attributed by some to greenhouse gases. But we have to recall that the sun not only undergoes 11-year cycles, but also, 22, 87 and 1000-year cycles. In happens that solar activity was at a very high level over the last decades, and so warming over the last decade, especially in combination with the warm phases of the PDO and AMO, should not surprise us at all.
As the paper says, the sun plays a major role, and so ignoring its cycles in models is just bad science. The tragedy of it all is that the solar cycles are known and they could be easily built into the models, which then in turn would gain immensely in value. But because they do not produce the desired results for activist scientists, they are left out and forcing tricks from other factors such as aerosols and volcanoes are used for explaining the inconvenient cool periods.