Permafrost Far More Stable Than Claimed…German Expert Calls Danger Of It Thawing Out “Utter Imbicility”!

Die Welt blogger and science journalist Ulli Kulke writes here about how another scare story (melting permafrost) is a load of “imbecility”.

In the above paper, permafrost expert Georg Delisle shows that permafrost scare is irrational bedwetting. Source: Poster Bad Honnef.

Some alarmist scientists claim melting permafrost could lead to a dangerous “tipping point” as methane and CO2 released would act to enhance global warming further, which in turn would cause more permafrost to melt, thus accelerating global warming until it careens out of control.

Just in time for Doha, this disaster scenario has once again been hyped up, with Kevin Schaefer of the National Snow and Ice Data Center recently sounding the alarms. So has UNEP.

Kulke writes, however, that the permafrost is much more stable than claimed and that studies have been conducted on permafrost – since decades. Kulke writes:

I remember a seminar in Bad Honnef in the spring of 2008 where geoscientist and permafrost expert Georg Delisle from Hanover presented his research.

He studied time periods from the last 10,000 years when the global temperature was warmer than today for several thousand years by as much as 6°C. Ice cores that had been extracted from Antarctica and Greenland provide exact information about the composition of the atmosphere during the these warm periods. His conclusion: ‘The ice cores from both Greenland and Antarctica provide no indication of any elevated release of greenhouse gases at any time even though back then a deep thawing of the permafrost when compared to today would have been the case.’  This was clear to see on the poster he used for his presentation. Obviously CO2 and methane are much more stable in the ground also when it thaws, Poster Bad Honnef.”

Delisle is an expert on permafrost. What does he think about the claims being made that there’s a risk it will thaw out and release lots of climate-shattering gas? Kulke tells us what Delisle said emphasis added:

‘…it is utter imbecility to suppose that the entire permafrost could thaw out by the end of the century. It would take thousands of years.‘ His study ‘Near-surface permafrost degradation: How severe during the 21st century?’ was the basis for his presentation. It had been peer reviewed and has not to my knowledge been refuted to this day. 2007GL029323.”

Kulke writes that it would be nice if the IPCC took such research into account, the same applies for the sun as a factor as well.

By the way, the Poster Bad Honnef concludes:

• Permafrost in the Arctic will remain mostly intact in the 21st century.
• When making a comparison to other earlier warm periods, the massive release of greenhouse gases from disintegrating permafrost is considered improbable.

Another global warming myth debunked. Now bring on the “melting ice caps”.


10 responses to “Permafrost Far More Stable Than Claimed…German Expert Calls Danger Of It Thawing Out “Utter Imbicility”!”

  1. Bruce of Newcastle

    Methane in the atmosphere is pretty flat. There was a dip in the early 2000’s as oil and coal companies increasingly captured and sold gas which they used to vent. It is now rising again as gas from coal seams and shale deposits are being actively exploited.

    This graph was so embarassing to our warmist government science organisation CSIRO that they hid it.

    When a warmist science organisation has to hide a graph you KNOW there is no real problem.

  2. MostlyHarmless

    I’ve just posted on a study which implies “there’s something going on” in Alaska re. permafrost. All they could come up with is 10-12 ppm CO2 above the global average of 395 ppm “in some places”. They say methane is “significantly elevated in places – about 2000 parts per billion, against a normal background of about 1850 parts per billion”. I’d say they hadn’t found much at all. Both CO2 and methane vary almost as much from region to region and I’d expect higher variation locally – much what they found in fact. It’s being talked up into a scare.

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  4. cementafriend

    It is it just incompetence that these Alarmist pseudo-scientists do not look at the facts? The release of methane from permafrost will make no measurable change. The IR absorption of CH4 only occurs in the very narrow range of frequency 7.4-7.8 micron where it is overlapped by water vapor. Across the IR spectrum 4-40 micron methane absorbs about one tenth that of CO2 which in turn aborbs one tenth or less of water vapor. However, I suppose that telling lies by politicians and their fellow travellers (particularly the watermelon type) is nothing new.

  5. mwhite

    Much of the frozen permafrost is frozen peat bog

    “THE world’s largest frozen peat bog is melting. An area stretching for a million square kilometres across the permafrost of western Siberia is turning into a mass of shallow lakes as the ground melts”

    In the UK peat bogs are considered carbon sinks

    “Healthy peat absorbs and stores carbon; but as it degrades, the carbon is released, ending up in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide.”

    So if the frozen peat bogs in the arctic were to melt they would absorb CO2??????????????

  6. mwhite

    “THE world’s largest frozen peat bog is melting. An area stretching for a million square kilometres across the permafrost of western Siberia is turning into a mass of shallow lakes as the ground melts,”

    1. Bernd Felsche

      What a bunch of incompetent waterfowl minders!

      “Permafrost” only applies to the ground below the immediate surface; not the snow cover!

      If there’s peat; there was/is vegetation for at least part of the year so the ground isn’t frozen. At least not the visible surface.

      OTOH, liquid water on the surface may simply indicate that there’s more precipitation. Not a thawing. After all; ice consumes a greater volume than liquid water.

    2. Ed Caryl

      It happens every summer since 10,000 BC.

  7. thebiggreenlie

    Here’s a really unscientific way to experience what perma frost is all about! Here in North America above the 49th parallel, just take a shovel and try and dig a 2 foot hole in the ground anywhere from that parallel all the way up to the North Pole from December 1st, until next year into April of 2013.
    You can’t……………it’s frozen! ………………..Solid!

  8. sunsettommy

    Here is a nice chart to ponder over:

    Not much CH4 effect to brag about…


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