With leaders from 35 countries now meeting at the Petersberger Climate Dialogue in Berlin, every German government-funded institute is now busily issuing press releases to get their two cents worth of alarmism in. The DWD national German Weather Service is no exception.
Two days ago it tweeted a message telling the public that it only “feels like its cooling“. You see, the last 5 bitter-cold winters are just in our heads.
Figure 1: The DWD tweets: “Climate press conference of the DWD: #Temperature will continue rising globally – inspite it feels like it’s cooling #Winter.”
With every press release coming out of the DWD, two things are becoming clear: 1) It is becoming increasingly activist and misleading and 2) its statements are more and more confused and contradictory.
Temperatures are rising, even if they are stagnant
It seems the DWD can’t decide whether temperatures are rising or stagnating. Its latest (2013) press release says (my emphasis):
Global temperature, despite the current stagnation, is rising over the long term. ‘The Earth’s mean temperature has stagnated over the last 15 years at a high level. However, it is not necessary to rewrite the story of climate change,’ underscores Dr. Paul Becker, Vice President of the German Weather Service (DWD) at its annual climate press conference of the Federal Authorities in Berlin.”
In 2013 they write global temperature has stagnated over the last 15 years.
But in May 2012 they wrote:
The long-term trend of rising temperatures in Germany and worldwide continues uninterrrupted.”
Well, which statement is the false one?
Of course the DWD may protest and claim the warming is long-term trend and the stagnation is not. Is it really? Let’s take a look at the temperature data for Germany since 1890.
Figure 2: Germany’s annual mean temperature chart. Source: EIKE.
Above we see a more or less flat trend from 1890 to 1985, i.e. 95 years. It is only from 1985 to 2000 (15 years) that we have seen a temperature jump. And then from 2000 until now we have a declining trend. How can the brief rise of 1985 – 2000 be called “longterm” and the last 15 years not?
The following chart shows Germany’s mean annual temperature for the last 15 years.
Figure 3: Germany’s annual mean temperature. Data source: Deutsche Wetterdienst, Chart by: EIKE
The models from “climate scientists” projected 0.4°C of warming for the above shown period. But in reality, precisely the opposite occurred! The German Weather Service provides no explanation for this. Instead they simply tell readers that it’s getting warmer (over the long-term) and tweet that the cold is only in our heads.
Using the cold 1961-1990 period as a reference
Another trick the DWD likes to use is the cold period of 1960 – 1990 as the reference. This is how they come up with all the warm anomalies for today. The DWD writes on global temperatures:
Although the years 2011 and 2012 did not set any records globally – they are among the 12 warmest years since 1880 with an annual mean temperature of of 0.5°C over the 1961-1990 reference period.”
On Germany’s mean annual temperatures, again they use the cold 1960 to 1990 period (many weather outfits use the 1980 – 2010 period), see Figure 2.
Also the mean temperature of 9.1°C for 2012 was significantly over the mean of 8.2°C. The year 2012 was thus the 16th warmest since 1881. According to evaluations conducted by the DWD, 24 of the last 30 years in Germany were too warm.”
That is if you compare the last 30 years to the cold 1961-1990 period. This is how DWD creates headlines.
DWD says he (felt) cooling is caused by natural drivers
Natural influences currently are masking the man-made climate change. Even a few years without records, or isolated weather periods – for example a winter that is too cool – are thus not suitable to draw real statements on climate change. The question of climate change must be viewed over the long-term. We cannot expect that temperature increase to occur as smoothly as the CO2 increase in the atmosphere. Climate is impacted by many factors. Among them solar irradiance and volcanic activity, as well as large internal variability of the climate, for example the regular changes in the sea surface temperature in the Pacific through Eö Nino and La Nina.
Here they make it a point to totally ignore the powerful PDO and AMO cycles, who positive phases occurred precisely during the 1980 – 2000 warming. Best not to bring that up.
The DWD press release concedes there are many unknowns:
Becker: “All these effects overlap each other and to some extent mask man-made climate change – of which there is no doubt. Today for this reason we still cannot say which factors are 2/3 of the impact on our climate. But we’re convinced: Over the long run the man-made impact is the strongest and thus a further temperature increase is coming.”
This brings us to an old question that remains unanswered today: “If unknown factors are acting to cool global temperature today, then why are these very factors not repsonsible for the warming from 1980 to 2000?
The DWD spreads the fear of a public health crisis
The DWD finishes the press release by stoking up public health disaster scenarios resulting from climate change and embellishing in some unbridled speculation. Here it seems to be extending its outdated logo-chart way out to yonder. The DWD writes:
The temperature increase will not only be limited to outdoors, but will also impact indoors. Climate scientists have determined that from May to September for the upper Rhine region, in an average year, 15% of the average nighttime indoor temperatures are over 25°C. By the middle of this century, that figure will rise to 35%.”
The increasingly alarmist DWD also writes that life for people with allergies could get a lot more miserable.
People with allergies are going to suffer from pollen a lot more. […] Becker: ‘The bad news for people who have allergies is: They are going to have to struggle with other types of pollen and are going to have to live with longer pollen seasons.’ Just these few mentioned aspects show, according to DWD estimates, what explosiveness as a whole the expected changes could have for the people in our country.”
This is ludicrous speculation based extrapolating the outdated curve that it uses as its logo. It’s hard to think of any orgnaization that has deteoriated so much in the klast few years.
It was once one of the world’s most renown and respected weather institutes. But in the recent years, during a time of cooling German temperatures no less, it has meandered off deep into the realms of the unserious, and is rapidly approaching the preposterous and absurd.
It’s not the climate that is radically changing – but rather it’s the institutions that monitor it.