By Dr Sebastian Lüning and Prof Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated, edited by P. Gosselin)
Perhaps you’ll recall how about a year ago a draft version of the recently appearing IPCC AR5 found its way to the public’s attention. That draft report contained an important chart that clearly illustrated the failure of all climate prognoses over the last 15 years. The actually observed temperatures of the last years were clearly below the models’ projected range, see Figure 1:
Figure 1: Chart from the Second Order Draft of the IPCC climate report (Figure 1.4. Yellow arrows show digitization of cited Figure 10.26 of AR4).
So it’s no wonder that this chart never saw the light of day in the final version of the IPCC final report. At his blog Climate Audit Steve McIntyre took a close look and researched why the substitute chart used in the final version (Figure 2) looks so different.
His summary conclusion: Without any plausible explanation, the colored forecast ranges were shifted and the chart was set up to be confusing. Moreover, what’s worse, the new version was never subjected to professional review or quality control, and was slipped in at the last minute as a replacement chart. This is a very dubious illusory trick for which the involved parties will have to answer to in the coming years when the historical-scientific examination of the climate-alarmism era takes place.
Figure 2: In the end, this chart was used in the final version.
Dr. Sebastian Lüning is a geologist/paleontologist and has been working 20 years reconstructing natural past climate changes of the geological past. Fritz Vahrenholt is a professor of chemistry at the University of Hamburg and an expert in energy. Both are co-authors of the 2012 book ‘Die kalte Sonne‘ in which they say there is no approaching climate catastrophe. In 2013 ‘Die kalte Sonne’ became available in English under the title: ‘The Neglected Sun – How the Sun Precludes Climate Catastrophe‘. Vahrenholt and Lüning run the leading German climate alarmism critical website: Die kalte Sonne.