If you still don’t believe climate models cannot be trusted to predict the future, then watch the following video of a presentation made with humor added by leading expert modeler Prof. Christopher Essex earlier this year. Absolutely worth viewing!
On scientific consensus
Essex quotes a cartoon: “Then we are agreed nine to one that we will say our previous vote was unanimous“.
On Mann’s phony hockey stick
The hockey stick thing was wrong on so many levels, problematic on so many levels…”
Search for “smoking gun” began already in early 1980s
In the early 1980s Prof. Essex got a post doc at the Canadian Climate Center with the general circulation model group who had a desire “to do some definitive things“. Essex recalls:
Some big wheels there sat me down in this room and said we want you to come up with the smoking gun that will prove global warming.”
So clearly, from the very beginning, this was all about putting mankind on the dock.
“Welcome to wonderland”
But Essex told them it wasn’t possible. Indeed it is not only Essex who believes models cannot describe the complex climate system. At the 7:35 mark he quotes the “ultimate skeptic position” – from the IPCC!
In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
Even the IPCC admitted in 2001 that models were nothing but “wonderland”. Over the course of the presentation, Essex explains why this is so.
At the end of the presentation his comments in the Q&A session are most interesting.
“It’s running out of gas”…”just craziness”
On how long policymakers can continue this “Welcome to Wonderland” climate modeling, Essex thinks “it’s running out of gas” and called some of the things going on in climate science and reactions to legitimate academic inquiry “just craziness”. He thinks that a lot of people have their lives and careers invested in it but that it will eventually run its course.
I think the overall momentum is gone and they aren’t going to be able to gin it up again quite the way they had.”
What’s going to replace the climate modeling madness?
Some new madness. Yeah. We’re dealing with humans here, you know, I mean, haha, okay.”
Essex is right. But will it be possible to top the madness we’ve seen with the global warming scare? Let’s hope not.
Related reading: wattsupwiththat.com/uninformed-troll100055.