Update 01/09/2014 19:18 CET: The opinion poll presented at the Plenum link below just seems to be too wrong. To me it appears to be a national poll, and not of Saxony. The Plenum story does not specify exactly the region the poll was taken.
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Germany’s version of the UKIP Party in the UK is the so-called Alternativ für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany), or AfD Party.
The AfD party has been very critical of euro, green-energies, and mega bailouts. Some its members have expressed doubts on climate science. Disenchanted voters view the AfD as the alternative to what they see as entrenched arrogance that has long pervaded over the other established parties; CDU, SPD, Greens, Links (Communist), and FDP.
Yesterday state elections were held in the German eastern state of Saxony with results showing the AfD party taking in 10% of the vote. The unexpectedly high result for the AfD took many pollsters by surprise.
Final result:
CDU (conservatives) 39.4%
SPD (socialists): 12.4%
Links (communists): 18.9%
Greens: 5.7%
AfD (alternative): 9.7%
Just a week before yesterday’s election, some opinion surveys by polling institutes were showing the AfD struggling to reach the 5% hurdle, which is necessary for a party to take seats in parliament.
For example on August 20 a survey commissioned by Stern-RTL showed the AfD barely at the critical 5% mark, the SPD social democrats all the way at 24%, and the German environmentalist Greens even at 10%. The Plenum site actually does not specify exactly the region the poll was taken – only mentioning that it was done in the run-up to the Saxony election. The figures seem to reflect the national sentiment.
The online Fulda info here presents the results of a national survey by renowned polling institute Emnid conducted about 10 days ago, commissioned by flagship daily Bild am Sonntag. It showed the AfD as a marginal party at only 4%!
Needless to say, the media reaction was one of shock and awe, and indicates that both the established parties and media do not have their finger on the pulse of public sentiment. The opinion survey seem to more reflect the wishes of the establishment, and not the reality.
Repeated, widespread campaigns had been launched by the established parties and the media in attempt to portray the critical AfD as a fringe, right-wing party. The 10% result shows, however, that the attempts failed and that the AfD voters think very little of the shenanigans.
In the Saxony elections the newly minted AfD soared past a number of parties and picked up 10% of the vote, surprising pollsters and the sending a sharp signal to the established parties that the days of political consensus on major issues such as the euro, the role of the EU, mega-bailouts, and renewable energy may be coming to an end.
With war breaking out to the east and south of Europe, the European economy struggling, energy prices spiraling out of control, citizens are demanding that their wishes be taken seriously.
I’m reveling in the torment of the Bloc media. Here’s a cool Berlin news aggregator
http://tersee.com
Enter one search term – e g AfD – pree Enter – you get a quick time sorted multi language news timeline.
Very practical to track a hot news item.
Unlike the UKIP which is mainly a promotional mechanism for the Party’s “leadership”, AfD seems to have a few realisable aims. They also differ on the EU per sé; wanting it toned down to a free trade region with a restoration of some national sovereignty.
However, like UKIP, AfD doesn’t seem to have read the detail of the “Treaty”; as there is no defined mechanism within the EU for any Euroland country to return to its own currency. Even those countries that have shattered economies aren’t allowed to leave the Eurozone; even if it costs the people of all the other member countries their last shirt.
The only leverage that EU member nations really have on the EU is to invoke Article 50 which automatically engaged a mechanism of “negotiations” that, if not resolved within 2 years, results in the country regaining its sovereignty, etc and losing the EU trade zone, etc as well as the Euro.
Being out of the EU free trade zone isn’t a death-knell to economies. Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and even Turkey have found ways to tap into the EU market. (EEA and EFTA are ready, existing alternatives.)
Nor does non-membership of the EU prohibit sovereign nations adopting selected EU standards as they see fit; and applied to e.g. trade with any remaining EU member States.
Europe is basically a nice place. It’s a shame that it’s mostly occupied by the EU.
What the AfD want for Germany is nevertheless laudable. It’s just not achievable within the framework of the EU.
You’d need to convince your representatives to morph the EU [back] into the EEC.
Tough nut to crack, methinks.
Tough as long as the EU-philic fear mongers’ tall stories are believed.
Countering those requires a coherent exit strategy (which UKIP doesn’t have) but one is being drafted for the UK by Richard North.
The UK has substantial assets beyond those of Germany; intangible at first glance such as the Commonwealth. But the Commonwealth presents a de facto trade block of nations sharing language and part of their history through the British Empire. While the Netherlands may find similar, old friends, Germany will find historically comfortable friends in its geographically-close neighbours and few others; because the underlying relationships have decayed and Germany is “unfamiliar” for a close, trusted (and free) trade alliance unless it’s part of a trade block.
Every country needs to develop its own exit strategy. If the EU has taught Europe one thing it should be that one size does not fit all.
Bernd, Germany had good relations from the 1830’s with Turkey and I believe there are millions of citizens of Turkish origin in Germany. Not much use but South-West Africa (Namibia) was once a German colony. Has not the leader of Argentina a German name? Maybe Germany could pay off the debt there and develop trade opportunities. Argentina is a bit different from the rest of South America. They have lots of cattle and a reasonable Rugby team
“Bernd, Germany had good relations from the 1830′s with Turkey and I believe there are millions of citizens of Turkish origin in Germany.”
Yep, and I think they plan to turn Northrhine Westphalia into a caliphate.
“However, like UKIP, AfD doesn’t seem to have read the detail of the “Treaty”; as there is no defined mechanism within the EU for any Euroland country to return to its own currency. Even those countries that have shattered economies aren’t allowed to leave the Eurozone; even if it costs the people of all the other member countries their last shirt.”
You return to your own currency by quitting the EU as a whole. That’s why we keep subsidizing Greece – because that is the only way to keep them in the Eurozone and in the EU. And why do we want that? Simple: Their debt is denoted in THE CURRENCY OF GREECE. Would they leave the EU and the Eurozone and issue a new Drachma, all public debt of Greece would automatically be converted into new Drachma – which would destroy the European banking system the moment the new Drachma gets devalued. WITHOUT A DEFAULT OF GREECE. No default event = No CDS gets payed out. Which is the insurance against default events. But the capital base of the banks who loaded up on Greek bonds would get wiped out; and a recapitalization – via taxpayer money or via expropriating the depositors via Diesel-Boom bail-in – would have to happen – or the banks themselves default.
And in light of the various catastrophic outcome, a renegotiation would be needed; the AfD is more conscious of that than any of the pan-European bloc parties. You will not find any German party with as much understanding of the dilemma as the AfD.
BTW; European treaties are violated all the time without consequences – the Maastricht criterion is the butt of bad jokes; the Schengen treaty gets violated by Italy all the time – they give Lampedusa illegal immigrants train tickets to send them to Germany. Every once in a while Bavarian police checks the trains, and find them packed with Lampedusa arrivals. Who immediately apply for political asylum in Germany of course. Which is a violation of the Schengen treaty; we should send them back to Italy instantly. And it is not done. Again; a DESIRED treaty violation by the Pan-European Bloc Parties.
Tough to build a useful coalition.
Climate Change to turn Baltic Sea into pool of men-flesh-eating bacteria, scientists warn.
The bacterium eats only men; as Oestrogen repels it.
http://www.focus.de/gesundheit/ratgeber/reisemedizin/fleischfressende-bakterien-in-der-ostsee-duerfen-wir-bald-nicht-mehr-an-unseren-kuesten-baden_id_4101363.html
Mr chicken (Huhn) says the sky is falling. -what a joke , well picked up DirkH to lighten the mood
Global Warming turns into B movie.
Bernd Felsche
I wondered at your quaint notion of the UKIP surge in popularity until I read your second entry eulogising the bitter outpourings of Richard North who’s antipathy towards Nigel Farage and all things UKIP is plainly displayed on his blog.
To the chagrin of RN conservative MPs are defecting to UKIP and a strong base to contest the upcoming general election in the UK continues to grow.
It would be wrong to suggest otherwise on this blog and in this topic about a similar sea change in Germany.
Other people would be tempted to respond in kind to your veiled insults.
How about some facts?
Where’s UKIP’s exit strategy published? Where are current UKIP’s policies (not just the slogans) published? Where are the details of how those things are going to be done? Popularity, without knowing how to do the things one promises, is just a continuation of the waste. It is false hope on the strength of personalities.
You are the only one who could ever change your mind.
Consider this:
How could nations even survive exit from the EU without a coherent strategy on how to manage disconnection from the EU’s mechanisms that’ve crept into many aspects of public and private life?
Just like the 40 years that part of Germany was behind the Iron Curtain; leaving the EU cannot be “fixed” by mere good intentions, slogans or pouring a shirtload of prosperity into the gaping holes left behind after decades of dependence on a system that evaporates “overnight”.
Unlike the “surprise” of the collapse of the GDR; developing a strategy before separation is something the EU members can do right now. At the very least to take stock of how dependent they are on the EU; for what; and how. And to investigate how the necessary things provided by the EU’s mechanisms can be replaced when (in some cases; before) the separation occurs.
Article 50 allows 2 years for “renegotiation” (though nobody seems to admit to being part of any negotiations). Methinks it’s a good idea to have the strategy laid out before Article 50 is invoked, so that one knows what to expect and has all the ducks in a row.
Finally, the HOWTO of a robust exit strategy provides a psychological “security blanket” in dealing with unforeseen matters; especially if the transition to independence is otherwise seen to be smooth . Without such a strategy, everything seems like a hodge-podge and even tiny problems seem insurmountable.
BTW I just found a central Pan-European German QUANGO.
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europ%C3%A4ische_Bewegung_Deutschland
Telling is the flag of the international movement.
All the world is green and white.
Oh look, Rockefeller, Ford and CIA financed the pan-European movement.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Committee_on_United_Europe
BTW re EU: Parents try to save their child from the NHS, take it out of hospital, travel to Spain, check kid into hospital. All of this is obviously legal.
UK issues European Arrest Warrant and has parents dragged into jail. They don’t like it there when you get a victim out of the NHS.
http://www.dw.de/ashya-kings-parents-allowed-to-visit-in-spanish-hospital/a-17898086
European Arrest Warrant, the perfect solution to terrorize anyone anywhere.